https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/Independent research on global markets, monetary policy, energy, options and digital assets.enhttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-main/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-main/On October 29, 2026, US real GDP growth accelerated to an annualized 3.4% in the third quarter, but real consumer spending was almost flat in September. Heavy capital spending by cloud giants squeezed free cash flow, sending the Nasdaq 100 down 1.38% as money rotated into small caps and financials. Safe-haven demand and softer quarterly PCE inflation pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.98%. The ECB held its rate at 2.50%, while oil and gold both closed lower.Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-options/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-options/The Hang Seng Tech Index closed down 2.84% on October 29, the last trading day for October monthly options. Total open interest in Hang Seng Tech options edged lower, while the November 3,900 call and 3,700 put each added more than 2,000 contracts in net open interest. The 3,700 put's quote jumped 49.2%, while the 3,900 call's fell 37%, highlighting the concentration of new positions at key strikes and the trade-offs facing covered-call strategies as they roll forward.Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-oil/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-oil/On October 29, 2026, front-month December Brent and WTI crude futures recovered most of their losses after falling more than $2 intraday, settling slightly lower at $114.88 and $102 per barrel, respectively. Reports of U.S.–Iran contacts eroded part of the risk premium, but Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi facilities, constrained Middle Eastern exports, and draws in U.S. crude and distillate inventories continued to support backwardation in oil futures. The market's next focal points are the November 1 OPEC+ meeting, the Middle East's ability to deliver physical supplies, and changes in diesel supply as Russian refineries resume operations.Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-fed/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-fed/U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized quarterly rate in Q3, and real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.9%, but September real consumption growth slowed to less than 0.1% month on month. Q3 core PCE inflation eased to a 2.5% annualized rate, while September's year-on-year rate remained 3.1%. The combination of strong growth and high inflation raises the bar for a near-term rate cut, leaving the Fed to monitor forthcoming wage and employment data.Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-iran/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-iran/Reports of ships catching fire and tankers coming under attack have emerged in succession from the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's navy claiming that four tankers struck mines. As maritime security incidents mount, Vance has written to a senior Iranian security official to explore renewed talks, but Washington and Tehran remain sharply divided over the nature of their contacts, ceasefire conditions and arrangements for the nuclear issue.Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-crypto-market/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-crypto-market/Binance security concerns added to macroeconomic pressure, pushing Bitcoin below 80,000 USDT; TRX was the only gainer among the ten trading pairs tracked.Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-crypto-flows/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-crypto-flows/Stablecoin freezes add to diverging ETF flows, while renewed inflows into Bitcoin products have yet to expand the stock of on-chain dollars.Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-crypto-onchain/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-crypto-onchain/Daily DEX volume rose 42.8%, with Ethereum contributing the largest increase among the networks sampled; payment and RWA services also expanded.Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-crypto-policy/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261030-crypto-policy/Galaxy applies for a trust bank, while Circle seeks cash recognition and a zero capital haircut for stablecoins, bringing institutional adoption into the details of regulation.Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-crypto-market/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-crypto-market/A modest crypto rebound after the Fed held rates lacked stronger spot turnover. Bitcoin steadied, while Ether and several major tokens remained weak over the month.Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-crypto-flows/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-crypto-flows/Renewed Bitcoin ETF inflows contrast with Ether ETF redemptions, shrinking dollar stablecoin supply and positive perpetual funding rates.Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-crypto-onchain/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-crypto-onchain/Stronger decentralized exchange activity, DTC's tokenization launch and a planned Stellar payment corridor reveal different stages of on-chain financial adoption.Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-crypto-policy/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-crypto-policy/Ripple is linking payments, custody and treasury services, while Circle asks the SEC to clarify cash treatment and remove the 2% broker-dealer haircut for qualifying stablecoins.Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-fed/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-fed/The Fed pauses after September's rate increase to assess tighter credit conditions, while stronger growth and elevated inflation keep further tightening in the debate.Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-iran/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-iran/Diplomacy over reopening the Strait of Hormuz continues, but inspections, sanctions sequencing and fighting in Yemen remain obstacles to restoring shipping.Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-main/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-main/AI hardware earnings support equities, but higher long-term yields, expensive energy and heavy cloud investment sharpen the focus on free cash flow.Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-oil/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-oil/Supply threats and a fourth consecutive weekly U.S. crude draw support December oil futures, while rising gasoline stocks complicate the demand outlook.Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-options/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261029-options/Time decay and lower implied volatility erode near-expiry index options, while rising hardware-stock option turnover masks divergent changes in open interest.Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-crypto-market/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-crypto-market/Bitcoin recovers above 80,000 USDT, but weaker aggregate turnover, competition from AI investments and divided positioning leave the recovery unconfirmed.Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-crypto-flows/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-crypto-flows/A return to Bitcoin ETF inflows remains concentrated in IBIT, while Ether ETFs lose assets, stablecoin supply contracts and perpetual positions edge lower.Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-crypto-onchain/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-crypto-onchain/Tokenized credit is finding a place in Solana lending. Borrowing utilization and the ability to liquidate collateral will determine how far that use can grow.Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-crypto-policy/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-crypto-policy/Banks are expanding custody and on-chain funds are launching, while stock tokenization faces issuer objections. Legal rights and responsibilities are becoming central.Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-fed/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-fed/September equipment orders and shipments grew, and October consumer confidence recovered, but spending plans remained weak. Markets raised the probability of unchanged rates to 92.8%.Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-iran/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-iran/Qatar urged Iran to reopen Hormuz as ceasefire terms remained unresolved. Fighting near Bab el-Mandeb widened, and maritime risks reached energy infrastructure and water security.Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-main/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-main/A US$63 billion AI-compute financing lifted chip stocks and the S&P 500. Oil and long Treasury yields fell, but short rates, the dollar and funding costs continued to constrain the recovery’s breadth.Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-oil/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-oil/Hopes for easing Middle East tensions drove a second day of oil declines, but Brent’s front spread remained near US$5 a barrel. Further downside depends on transport and inventory recovery.Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-options/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261028-options/The Hang Seng fell 0.73%, and the October 23,400 call’s official quotation dropped about 75.8%. November absorbed 79.3% of new open interest as next-month put positions accumulated.Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-anthropic-ipo-economics/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-anthropic-ipo-economics/Anthropic’s filing reveals rapid enterprise growth and a profitable second quarter. Financing revaluations explain its huge net loss, while compute commitments, research spending, share compensation and governance shape common shareholders’ returns.Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-crypto-market/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-crypto-market/Bitcoin held 80,000 USDT while Ether edged lower. Institutional views diverged, and Strategy and other crypto treasury companies directed more cash toward share repurchases.Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-crypto-flows/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-crypto-flows/Contract open interest increased, ETF inflows remained unstable and dollar-pegged stablecoin supply continued to contract.Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-crypto-onchain/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-crypto-onchain/October 26 DEX volume rose 32.5% to US$7.934 billion. Ethereum-related networks moved above recent averages, but protocols differed sharply in the revenue they retained.Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-crypto-policy/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-crypto-policy/The OCC encouraged community banks to prepare stablecoin applications, Hong Kong licensees continued testing, and an issuer-led stock-tokenization coalition added trading, registry and infrastructure firms.Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-fed/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-fed/Texas manufacturing orders and shipments slowed, while input and output price pressures rose. Markets favored a pause this week but assigned nearly 75% probability to another increase before year-end.Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-iran/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-iran/Regional officials held talks in Tehran while U.S. forces reportedly prepared for potential expanded operations. The sequencing of Hormuz access, port reopening and nuclear issues remained unresolved.Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-main/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-main/AI revenue and chip demand lifted U.S. equities, but high yields and funding costs persisted. Brazil’s post-election selloff disrupted borrowing, while Chinese liquidity support coexisted with issuer-specific credit risks.Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-oil/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-oil/Diplomacy eased oil prices, while transport and infrastructure risks kept prompt supply tight. Brent’s front spread remained US$4.98 as product exports and onshore inventory rebuilding lagged.Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-options/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261027-options/The October 23,000 put’s official quote fell to 94 points while implied volatility rose to 22%. A one-point 19,000 put led volume, and aggregate open interest continued to grow.Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-crypto-market/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-crypto-market/Bitcoin’s midweek rebound faded under technology and Middle East risks. Weekly turnover declined, and concentrated Bitcoin ETF buying failed to broaden into a sustained rally across major coins.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-crypto-flows/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-crypto-flows/Early-week Bitcoin ETF buying reversed, Ether ETFs lost funds and stablecoin supply contracted. Higher funding rates and coin-denominated open interest lacked sustained spot demand.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-crypto-onchain/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-crypto-onchain/On-chain spot trading and fees declined, but tokenized funds and equities gained new financing uses. Sustainable protocol income depends on demand retained after subsidies end.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-crypto-policy/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-crypto-policy/The OCC finalized stablecoin rules, HSBC brought RedCoin to PayMe and JPM Coin expanded to Ethereum. Stock tokenization faced 22 issuer objections and unresolved market-access arrangements.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-fed/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-fed/During the October 19–25 blackout week, a Reuters poll found more than nine in ten economists expecting rates to stay at 3.75%–4.00% in October, while all expected a December increase. Stronger selling prices, rising household inflation expectations and initial jobless claims of 194,000 supported expectations of further tightening.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-iran/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-iran/Indirect U.S.–Iran contacts continued during October 19–25, but uranium custody and the sequencing of port-blockade and sanctions relief remained unresolved. Tanker transfers, threats to Gulf infrastructure and Houthi attacks put both maritime and overland energy routes under pressure.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-main/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-main/Long-term Treasury yields fell over the week, but AI funding needs widened credit premiums and weighed on technology shares. Brent gained 6.24% and gold lost 4.14% as investors focused on the cost of growth and the timing of cash returns.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-oil/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-oil/Middle East oil exports recovered to 17.3 million barrels a day, but tanker rates near US$1.4 million a day and renewed infrastructure risks supported prices. Brent rose to US$116.72 and WTI to US$103.27 a barrel. U.S. inventory draws and steep backwardation kept attention on shipping recovery and the November 1 OPEC+ meeting.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-options/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261026-options/Monthly Hang Seng option volume concentrated on Thursday and Friday, while open interest rose to 119,123 contracts. October 23,000 puts climbed to 306 points before falling to 180. Put positioning diverged across strikes, and Xiaomi, Tencent and Alibaba options reflected a mixture of rebound and downside trades.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261025-crypto-market/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261025-crypto-market/Middle East risks triggered an intraday selloff and long liquidations. Bitcoin recovered most of its fall below 80,000 USDT on lighter turnover, while Ether continued to underperform.Sun, 25 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261025-crypto-flows/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261025-crypto-flows/Bitcoin ETFs reversed 72% of their early-week inflows and stablecoin supply contracted. Saturday’s BTC perpetual open interest rose about 2%, while declining funding rates showed restrained demand to chase longs.Sun, 25 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261025-crypto-onchain/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261025-crypto-onchain/Daily DEX volume fell to US$6.986 billion. BNB Chain’s third-quarter tokenized-stock turnover reached US$25.6 billion, while GMGN generated more than one-third of incremental network transaction fees.Sun, 25 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261025-crypto-policy/https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261025-crypto-policy/BPI challenged the transparency of OCC reviews of third-party stablecoin rewards. In Hong Kong, an office opened by a platform on regulatory warning lists drew attention to the difference between a physical presence and licensed access.Sun, 25 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT