On September 15, the Middle East conflict continued to disrupt Saudi crude exports. The Houthis claimed restrictions on Saudi vessels passing through Bab el-Mandeb, while Saudi Arabia said military action would continue. The restart timing for Saudi Arabia's east–west pipeline remained unresolved: the US energy secretary expected oil flows might resume within days, while some sources interviewed by Reuters estimated repairs could take five to six weeks.

After disruption to navigation through Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's overland pipeline and Red Sea export routes also came under pressure. Aramco was reported to have canceled some late-September cargoes, bringing transport interruptions into specific deliveries. Iran continued to insist on fulfillment of its conditions before negotiations with the US, and diplomatic contacts had produced no clear de-escalation arrangements.

Houthis Claim Restrictions on Saudi Vessels; Red Sea Navigation Risks Remain

A tanker in Bab el-Mandeb illustrates claimed Houthi restrictions on Saudi ships and continuing Red Sea risk.
Original Chinese illustration · English guideThe Houthis claim restrictions on Saudi vessels. Bab el-Mandeb is labeled beside an illustrated tanker crossing a narrow sea passage. The lower statement says Red Sea navigation risks remain unresolved. The graphic illustrates the reported threat to shipping and does not establish safe passage for other vessels; decorative financial candles are not a data series.

Saudi Arabia reported on September 15 that Houthi missile and drone attacks on Khamis Mushait, Abha and Taif the previous day injured 13 civilians and damaged seven homes and two cars. The Houthis acknowledged attacking Khamis Mushait but said the target was a military base. The Saudi-led coalition said it would take necessary deterrent action.

The Houthis said Saudi Arabia had carried out more than 350 airstrikes over several days and claimed one strike in Taiz province killed three people, including two children. The death toll had not been independently verified. As exchanges continued, reports of civilian casualties and damage to homes kept emerging.

Maritime transport was also threatened. Houthi spokesman Bukhaiti told the media that Bab el-Mandeb was open to vessels from all countries except Saudi Arabia. His stated restriction targeted Saudi ships; whether other countries' vessels could pass safely still depended on actual conditions at sea.

Egyptian President Sisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met that day and emphasized freedom and safety of navigation in Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea. Qatar warned that with Hormuz already disrupted, a blockade of Bab el-Mandeb would further damage the global economy. For shipping companies, easing transport pressure depends on fewer coastal attacks and sustained safe passage.

Pipeline Restart Expectations Diverge; Some Crude Deliveries Canceled

Pipeline restart estimates range from days to five or six weeks, with Yanbu loadings suspended.
Original Chinese illustration · English guideSaudi east–west oil pipeline restart estimates differ. US Energy Secretary Wright: oil flows may resume within days. Sources: repairs may take five to six weeks. The bottom statement says crude loadings at Yanbu have also been suspended. The juxtaposition distinguishes attributed expectations, rather than presenting either as a confirmed completion date.

Saudi Arabia's east–west pipeline was intended to bypass Hormuz, but its shutdown now constrained that overland route as well. Reuters reported that US Energy Secretary Wright said on September 15 that oil flows might resume within days, although detailed assessment was continuing. Sources interviewed by Reuters differed: some estimated five to six weeks of repairs, while others thought partial throughput could resume earlier with repairs continuing during operation.

How much throughput returns after restart will also determine export recovery. Even a restart within days could leave full repairs and capacity restoration taking longer. Media citing Reuters said Aramco had notified some European customers that late-September crude cargoes were canceled and crude loadings at Yanbu were suspended, bringing the shutdown's impact into specific orders.

Responsibility for the attack remained under investigation. Iraqi security authorities said on September 15 that they had found a drone launch platform inside Iraq and were using technical and physical evidence to identify those responsible. Saudi Arabia had earlier blamed pro-Iranian militias in Iraq; Iran denied involvement. The attacking organization and its command relationships remained to be established.

Iran Maintains Negotiating Conditions as US War Costs Rise

Iran's negotiating conditions persist as CBO estimates $38 billion in direct war costs and $2 billion–$3 billion monthly additions.
Original Chinese illustration · English guideIran maintains negotiating conditions. CBO estimate for February 28–August 1: direct war costs approximately $38 billion. Continued conflict could add $2 billion–$3 billion each future month. A negotiating table and budget document illustrate the coexistence of stalled talks and accumulating military costs.

Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, reiterated that Iran would not negotiate with the US until its conditions were met. Trump had previously expressed willingness to engage, but the two positions had not translated into a new round of talks.

Continued combat was also increasing US fiscal and military-equipment pressure. CBO estimated on September 15 that direct war costs from February 28 to August 1 were approximately $38 billion, excluding repairs to regional military bases. Continued conflict could add another $2 billion–$3 billion per month. The office also said heavy use of defensive interceptor missiles could leave shortages in related inventories lasting for years.

US domestic disputes over war authorization and responsibility were intensifying. Representative Massie introduced articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Hegseth, accusing him of prolonged involvement in the Iran war without congressional authorization. Attorney General Blanche defended Hegseth, saying he had acted lawfully.

Fiscal spending, replenishment of military supplies and domestic accountability add to the cost of continued combat, but US policy direction remained unclear. For energy transport, the more immediate variables remained Saudi pipeline repairs, Red Sea passage and whether combatants could reduce attacks.

Key Developments

Separate Saudi casualty and damage figures and an Omani evacuation of 23 people.
Original Chinese illustration · English guideSaudi report: 13 civilians injured, seven homes and two cars damaged. Omani maritime security report: 23 people evacuated. Illustrations of damaged homes and a maritime evacuation distinguish the two reports; the counts refer to different incidents and should not be combined.

All times below are Beijing time.

Key Developments
09-16 05:30Media published photographs of damage to US bases in the Middle East, including a damaged airborne early-warning aircraft at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. The images showed damage from earlier attacks.
09-16 03:32CBO released its war-cost estimate: direct costs through August 1 were approximately $38 billion; continued conflict could add $2 billion–$3 billion per month.
09-16 02:40US Attorney General Blanche defended Defense Secretary Hegseth, saying he had acted lawfully.
09-16 01:30Representative Massie introduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth, alleging prolonged involvement in the Iran war without congressional authorization. The articles remained a proposal.
09-16 00:04US Energy Secretary Wright said Saudi Arabia's east–west pipeline might restart within days. Reuters also reported that sources' repair estimates differed by several weeks.
09-15 23:21A Houthi spokesman said Saudi Arabia had conducted more than 350 airstrikes over several days.
09-15 22:13Iraqi security authorities said they had found the domestic drone launch platform used to attack the Saudi pipeline and were still investigating the perpetrators' identities.
09-15 21:20Human Rights Watch said at least three recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels might constitute war crimes.
09-15 20:21Kuwait condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi cities and expressed support for Saudi Arabia.
09-15 19:16Qatar warned that blocking Bab el-Mandeb after the disruption to Hormuz would severely affect the global economy.
09-15 18:54Oman's maritime security authorities reported evacuating 23 people from a Panama-flagged tanker on fire in the Gulf of Oman. Subsequent reports that day said two crew members remained missing.
09-15 18:30Saudi Arabia said the previous day's Houthi attacks injured 13 civilians and damaged seven homes and two cars, and said it would respond.
09-15 17:04Iran's security chief reiterated that there would be no negotiations with the US until Iran's conditions were met.
09-15 10:43New disclosures in a US Defense Department inspector's report estimated war costs through June 29 at $33.4 billion, including $22.3 billion in expended munitions. This differs in scope and period from CBO's estimate through August 1.
09-15Egyptian and Saudi leaders met and stressed navigation safety in Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea. A Houthi spokesman claimed the blockade targeted only Saudi vessels.
09-15Media citing Reuters said Saudi Aramco canceled some late-September crude cargoes for European customers and suspended Yanbu loadings.
09-15The Houthis claimed a Saudi airstrike in Taiz province killed three people, including two children. The claim had not been independently verified.