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GOODMAN MACRO · research

Research

Long-form analysis of macroeconomics, markets and industry.

41 English articles

Research · October 25, 2026

S&P Rewrites U.S. Growth and Value Rules: Intangible Assets, Less Momentum and the Reallocation of US$375 Billion in Passive Assets

S&P Dow Jones Indices’ new U.S. style rules take effect before the December 21 open. Growth drops 12-month price momentum; value adds intangible-adjusted book value, forward earnings and free cash flow. The implications for classification, accounting, backtests and net rebalance demand extend beyond the headline US$375 billion of linked passive assets.

Research · October 23, 2026

Gold Falls Below $4,000 After a Nearly 14% Two-Month Drawdown: How Tighter Policy Expectations and Divided Buying Weigh on Prices

Why gold has fallen sharply: a reassessment of monetary policy, diverging buyers, and the still-unidentified trigger behind the latest selloff.

Research · October 22, 2026

French Sovereign Risk Is Being Repriced: Are There Arbitrage Opportunities in Euro-Area Government Bond Spreads?

France's risk premium is being redistributed across maturities, with marked differences between front-end carry, intermediate relative value and long-end fiscal risk.

Research · October 21, 2026

Japan's 10-Year Yield Nears 3% and Rate Expectations Reach 1.5%: How Higher Japanese Rates Reshape Treasury and Dollar Pricing

A Reuters poll finds nearly seven in ten economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates to 1.50% by quarter-end, while 10- and 30-year Japanese yields approach 3% and 4%. Higher domestic returns in the largest foreign holder of Treasuries and a global source of cheap funding are reshaping dollar-asset pricing through term premiums, currency-hedging costs and leveraged carry trades, transmitting refinancing pressure to sovereign bonds and $14.7 trillion in offshore dollar credit.

Research · October 20, 2026

French 10-Year Yield Approaches 5% as Street Protests Trigger a Reassessment of Fiscal Execution

France's 10-year government-bond yield is approaching 5%. Can fiscal consolidation be implemented, and how will higher rates feed through to banks and businesses?

Research · October 19, 2026

Indonesian Stocks Plunge to Six-Year Lows: MSCI Consults on Standalone Status as Market-Manipulation Crisis Forces a Foreign Capital Reassessment

Indonesia's stock-market rout: how could MSCI's consultation on standalone status affect capital flows and corporate financing?

Research · October 15, 2026

US September CPI in Depth: Gasoline Lifts Annual Inflation to 3.7%, While Core Prices Rise a Stronger-Than-Expected 0.3%

US September headline CPI rose 3.7% year on year, with gasoline contributing more than half the monthly increase. Core CPI rose 0.3% month on month and 2.6% year on year, both above expectations. Renewed core-goods inflation and faster monthly shelter inflation weakened the disinflation cushion, lifting October rate-hike odds above 40%; core PCE and employment still constrain the policy timetable.

Research · October 11, 2026

What the Data Say: Are New EV Makers Building Cars Too Quickly?

Comparing development cycles, R&D spending and manufacturing models at Chinese and overseas automakers tests the evidence behind claims of rushed vehicle development.

Research · October 7, 2026

Why the U.S. Economy Remains Strong in 2026: Investment Expansion, Recovering Consumption and Uneven Transmission of Headwinds

An analysis of U.S. investment, consumption and growth resilience through PMI surveys and GDP components.

Research · October 3, 2026

Core PCE Revised Down to 3.0%: Statistical Recalibration Reduces Tightening Risk but Does Not Signal a Policy Pivot

Statistical recalibration lowers July core PCE inflation to 3.0%. This reduces the risk of excessive tightening, but resilient demand and inflation mean it is not a policy-pivot signal.

Research · October 3, 2026

Why U.S. stocks still rise as Treasury yields climb: Earnings expectations versus real rates

Third-quarter 2026 equities rose alongside Treasury yields as earnings upgrades offset valuation pressure. The balance faces tests in profit quality, financing structure and market breadth.

Research · October 3, 2026

US September Payroll Growth Drops to 29,000: Why Did Treasury Yields Rebound 12 Basis Points From Their Intraday Low?

US payroll gains slowed to 29,000 without uncontrolled layoffs. Real rates and tightening expectations supported a 12-basis-point Treasury-yield rebound from the intraday low.

Research · October 1, 2026

August PCE in Depth: Revised Readings Cool, but Underlying Pressure Remains Elevated

Downward revisions to US inflation ease pressure to raise rates. Delayed medical repricing, higher transportation costs and supported service demand nevertheless make a rapid return to target difficult. This article examines services inflation and rate paths under four scenarios.

Research · September 29, 2026

Why Are Yields Still Rising After the Fed's Rate Increase?

Why long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued rising after Fed tightening: resilient private capital spending, persistent government borrowing and a repricing of long-bond risk premiums worked together. The article examines three potential paths to macroeconomic rebalancing.

Research · September 18, 2026

Constraints on the Fed's 2027 Rate Path: Inflation, Oil and AI Investment

One more hike this year followed by high rates next year is a working baseline consistent with some institutions and the Fed's median dots. It requires slowly easing inflation, gradually improving Middle Eastern energy supply and AI investment that does not materially worsen macro imbalances. Rapid easing faces constraints, but policy is not settled; renewed inflation and term-premium shocks remain risks.

Research · September 16, 2026

The Cost of Repairing US Public Finances: A 3% Deficit Target and the Repricing of Treasury Yields

Interest costs absorb rising fiscal revenue. What would it take to deliver a 3% deficit target, and how would Treasury yields be repriced?

Research · September 15, 2026

Bessent's 3% Deficit Target: What Fiscal Reform Would Allow Treasury Yields to Fall?

Interest is consuming America's revenue gains. Cutting the deficit to 3% requires nearly $1 trillion of annual adjustment and will shape the conditions for lower Treasury yields.

Research · September 14, 2026

US August PPI and CPI: Why Rate-Hike Odds and the Two-Year Treasury Yield Surged

August US disinflation stalled, lifting September hike expectations and the two-year Treasury yield by 20 basis points in two days. Price increases had yet to broaden generally, and institutions still differed on further hikes and the timing of cuts. Oil, midterm elections and PCE revisions would continue shaping policy assessments.

Research · September 7, 2026

Repeated Payroll Revisions: Limits of US Employment Statistics and Paths to Reform

The statistical roots of repeated payroll revisions, institutional barriers to integrating real-time data, and the scope and limits of Warsh's reforms.

Research · September 6, 2026

If the Fed Hikes in September, Where Does the Rate Path Go Next?

September's hike is not fully priced at that meeting, but cash Treasuries may already reflect later tightening. Yield decomposition, the SEP and path scenarios explain potential repricing after a hike.

Research · September 3, 2026

Gulf Crude Exports Are Recovering. Why Are Diesel and Jet Fuel Still So Expensive?

As Gulf exports recover, refinery bottlenecks, returning demand and electric-vehicle substitution will jointly shape oil prices.

Research · September 1, 2026

Payrolls and CPI Preview: Two Hurdles before the Fed's September Decision

A September hike remains conditional: payrolls first test whether the Fed has room to act, and CPI then determines whether it needs to.

Research · August 31, 2026

Warsh Rewrites the Fed's Reaction Function: No Promise to Hike, but a Higher Bar for Standing Pat

Warsh made no commitment to a September hike. By fixing the 2% target, prioritizing prices and downplaying forward guidance, he redefined the evidence the Fed would need to leave rates unchanged.

Research · August 29, 2026

Rebuilding Expectations Management: Warsh Redraws the Boundary Between Central Bank and Market

Rates emerge from the economy and markets. Warsh seeks to withdraw the Fed's day-to-day management of their future path and refocus it on the nominal anchor, current short-term policy and crisis boundaries.

Research · August 24, 2026

Why Did Gold Rebound in August While Nominal Treasury Yields Kept Rising?

Real rates drove most of this year's Treasury-yield increase. Gold's August rebound instead coincided with a weaker dollar, higher fiscal risk premiums and lower odds of a September rate hike.

Research · August 20, 2026

Match the borrowing currency to the bond: The real accounts behind dim sum and dollar debt

Once currency risk is removed from the comparison, dim sum bonds offer carry on a similar scale to dollar bonds with substantially lower volatility. Offshore renminbi government-bond futures launched August 3 completed the hedging chain, and segmented substitution is already under way.

Research · August 20, 2026

Can dim sum bonds replace dollar bonds while combining lower volatility and spread income under matched-currency funding?

Once foreign exchange is excluded, the real comparison is funded carry, duration risk and stressed liquidity. Dim sum bonds can replace some buy-and-hold positions, but do not yet replace the dollar credit curve.

Research · August 20, 2026

Beyond the Coupon Illusion: Can Dim Sum Bonds Build Hong Kong's Second Fixed-Income Curve?

The same issuer's coupon gap exceeds 200 basis points, yet spreads converge after same-currency funding costs. Hong Kong needs a second fixed-income curve.

Research · August 20, 2026

Hong Kong relaunches 5-year offshore government-bond futures: Low volatility need not mean a small market

Hong Kong's 5-year Chinese government-bond futures have relaunched. Using the first 13 trading days, annual CFFEX data, CME Treasury futures and Chinese and US rate volatility, this article examines capacity, dim sum implications, currency transmission and the product roadmap.

Research · August 19, 2026

Reassessing Treasury Supply and Demand: Long-Bond Supply Has Not Surged, so Why Are Yields Still Hard to Lower?

Falling foreign holdings do not equal selling, and most incremental financing over the past year went into bills. Separating buyer structure, maturity supply and yield components reveals what is really driving elevated Treasury yields.

Research · August 17, 2026

Dollar Bond Weekly: Benign Inflation Reduces Front-End Hike Bets as Fiscal Supply and Duration Premiums Bear-Steepen the Long End

Short yields fell with mild inflation while fiscal supply and term premiums supported long yields. Credit spreads moved sideways at low levels, and primary issuance expanded sharply.

Research · August 17, 2026

Lower Oil Cannot Open the Door to Cuts: A New Chair's Credibility, Midterm Elections and the Fed's Year-End Trade-Off

Lower oil has not established that core inflation is back at target. Warsh's credibility constraints, midterms and long rates raise the evidence threshold for a policy turn. The single most likely year-end outcome remains a 3.50%–3.75% hold.

Research · August 16, 2026

Why U.S. Real Rates Keep Rising: Bond Repricing and the True Limits of Policy Rates

Real yields drove this year's Treasury selloff, but policy should not mechanically follow the long end. Inflation, short-term neutral rates and financial conditions together provide the relevant yardstick.

Research · August 14, 2026

Repricing the long end of Treasuries: The shifting rate anchor behind a 5.216% auction record

Long yields have returned to levels unseen for more than two decades, driven mainly by a systematic repricing of real rates, fiscal supply and term risk rather than unanchored long-term inflation.

Research · August 11, 2026

China's May–July Price Weakness in Depth: Stable Annual Readings, Fading Monthly Momentum and the Test of a Nominal-Growth Feedback Loop

Three consecutive monthly CPI declines and a widening monthly PPI fall show that positive annual rates cannot conceal weaker current momentum. Policy must repair the nominal-growth feedback loop.

Research · August 10, 2026

Warsh's Federal Reserve Reform, Part Five: Midterm Politics and the Deeper Anchors of Interest Rates

Midterms do not directly set the federal funds rate, but they change the fiscal, oversight and expectations environment. With Warsh taking office, the question is whether the anchors move.

Research · August 10, 2026

Warsh Takes Over as Midterms Approach: Amid Political Conflict, What Ultimately Anchors Fed Rates?

A new chair's honeymoon collides with midterm elections and the Iran war. However strong the political pressure, federal funds rates must still be understood through growth and inflation expectations.

Research · August 6, 2026

Warsh's Fed Reform, Part Three: An Experiment in Measuring Inflation and Rebuilding the Reaction Function

After reviewing the failures of 2021–2022, we examine Warsh's change of measuring stick: core PCE at 3.3% and trimmed mean PCE at 2.2% lie on opposite sides of the target. Measurement, frameworks and the threshold for rate cuts.

Research · August 5, 2026

Thirty-Year Treasuries Above 5.2%: Long-Term Capital Demands More as Dollar-Asset Pricing Resets

The 30-year Treasury yield touches about 5.28%, near highs last seen around 2007. Policy can hold while the long end tightens. Behind 5.2% lie policy expectations, energy inflation and term premiums.

Research · August 3, 2026

Warsh's Fed Reforms, Part I: Tightening by Withdrawing Words and Letting Markets Price for Themselves

Rates stay unchanged for two meetings, yet markets act as though the Fed has done much: statements shrink by 60%, guidance disappears and dissent is exposed. What has Warsh removed, what has he reinforced, and what are the odds of success?

Research · August 3, 2026

Warsh's Federal Reserve Reforms, Part 2: Quantitative Tightening, Interest Rates and the Balance-Sheet Path

QT has ended while inflation remains above target. Warsh supports a further reduction of about $1 trillion–$2 trillion over the medium term, chiefly through portfolio changes and gradual runoff. Near-term restraint rests on interest rates; balance-sheet reform is a structural project spanning 3–5 years, with an estimable upward effect on long-end premiums.