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GOODMAN MACRO · fed

Fed Watch

Monetary policy, inflation and the transmission of interest rates.

83 English articles

Fed Watch · October 30, 2026

October 30 | Fed Watch: Q3 GDP Growth Accelerates to 3.4%, While Elevated September PCE Raises the Bar for Rate Cuts

U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized quarterly rate in Q3, and real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.9%, but September real consumption growth slowed to less than 0.1% month on month. Q3 core PCE inflation eased to a 2.5% annualized rate, while September's year-on-year rate remained 3.1%. The combination of strong growth and high inflation raises the bar for a near-term rate cut, leaving the Fed to monitor forthcoming wage and employment data.

Fed Watch · October 29, 2026

Fed Watch, October 29: Rates Held at 3.75%–4.00% as Two Officials Favor Another Increase

The Fed pauses after September's rate increase to assess tighter credit conditions, while stronger growth and elevated inflation keep further tightening in the debate.

Fed Watch · October 28, 2026

Fed Watch: Pause Probability Rises to 92.8% as Investment and Consumer Expectations Diverge

September equipment orders and shipments grew, and October consumer confidence recovered, but spending plans remained weak. Markets raised the probability of unchanged rates to 92.8%.

Fed Watch · October 27, 2026

Fed Watch: Texas Orders Fall to 9.3 as Prices Rise; Markets See Nearly 75% Chance of Another Hike This Year

Texas manufacturing orders and shipments slowed, while input and output price pressures rose. Markets favored a pause this week but assigned nearly 75% probability to another increase before year-end.

Fed Watch · October 26, 2026

Fed Weekly: October Pause Expected as Business Prices and Inflation Expectations Build Consensus for a December Hike

During the October 19–25 blackout week, a Reuters poll found more than nine in ten economists expecting rates to stay at 3.75%–4.00% in October, while all expected a December increase. Stronger selling prices, rising household inflation expectations and initial jobless claims of 194,000 supported expectations of further tightening.

Fed Watch · October 24, 2026

Fed Watch: U.S. Businesses Raise Prices Faster as Short- and Long-Term Inflation Expectations Rise for a Second Month

October’s U.S. composite output index was 57.6, while selling prices rose at their fastest pace since August 2022. Michigan’s final one-year and long-term inflation expectations increased to 4.7% and 3.5%, strengthening the case for maintaining anti-inflation pressure ahead of the Fed meeting.

Fed Watch · October 23, 2026

October 23 | Federal Reserve: Initial Claims Fall to 194,000, but Hiring Remains Weak Despite Low Layoffs

US initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 while continuing claims rose. Manufacturing costs increased, but firms' pricing power was constrained. The October policy meeting will test how the Fed balances low layoffs, weak hiring and price pressure.

Fed Watch · October 22, 2026

October 22 | Federal Reserve Focus: Weekly Earnings Growth Trails Prices by 2 Percentage Points

Weekly earnings for full-time U.S. employees rose 1.5% year on year in the third quarter, versus a 3.5% price increase. Real weekly earnings fell both annually and quarterly. Weaker purchasing power reduced wage support for consumption, while high inflation continued to limit the Fed's room to cut rates.

Fed Watch · October 21, 2026

October 21 | Fed: All Reuters Poll Respondents Expect a December Hike; Over 90% See an October Hold

Reuters' October 20 poll found all 100 economists expecting a December Fed hike and 94 expecting unchanged rates in October; about 41% saw at least two further hikes this cycle. Falling September single-family starts and permits support an October pause, but resilient growth and slow PCE disinflation sustain expectations of further tightening this year.

Fed Watch · October 20, 2026

October 20 | Federal Reserve: US Housing Market Index Falls to 29 as Rate Hikes Hit Sectors Unevenly

The US NAHB Housing Market Index falls from 32 in September to 29 in October, its lowest since June 2012. Price cuts by 43% of surveyed builders fail to offset high rates and costs. Credit-sensitive sectors contract while AI investment expands, and markets expect the Fed to pause rate hikes in October as it weighs disinflation against uneven tightening effects.

Fed Watch · October 19, 2026

October 19 | Fed Weekly: September CPI Rises to 3.7%; October or December Rate Hike Still Undecided

September US CPI rose to 3.7% year on year, core CPI rebounded to 2.6%, and PPI increased 1.3% month on month, indicating broader transmission of energy costs. Officials generally support further tightening this year but differ on pace and productivity. Chair Warsh gave no advance October signal; market odds of a 25-basis-point October hike rose to 43.7% after CPI before falling to about 15%.

Fed Watch · October 17, 2026

October 17 | Fed: September Import Prices Rise 8.1% Year on Year as Nonfuel Costs Test the Hiking Path

September US import prices rose 8.1% year on year, with monthly nonfuel gains accelerating from June through September. Manufacturing output grew only 0.3% and spare capacity remained; October's meeting focuses on the subsequent rate path.

Fed Watch · October 16, 2026

October 16 | Federal Reserve: U.S. September PPI Rises 1.3% Month on Month, Keeping Rate-Hike Debate Alive

U.S. September PPI rose a seasonally adjusted 1.3% month on month and 6.3% year on year. Surging energy prices and sticky underlying costs strengthen the case for restrictive Fed policy. The San Francisco Fed sees inflation returning to 2% only at end-2028; markets await Chair Warsh's latest discussion and October's policy meeting for guidance on further increases.

Fed Watch · October 15, 2026

October 15 | Federal Reserve: U.S. September CPI reaches 3.7%; October hike pricing nears 50%

September CPI rose to 3.7% year on year and core CPI to 2.6%, lifting October hike pricing to nearly 50%. The Beige Book shows oil costs spreading through supply chains as subdued consumption limits price increases; PPI and import prices are the next tests.

Fed Watch · October 14, 2026

October 14 | Federal Reserve: Officials Favor Further Hikes This Year, Watching Inflation Spillovers from Energy and AI Investment

Recent Fed comments keep modest further tightening this year in the baseline. Williams leans toward one more hike and Collins supports additional increases, with attention on whether energy and AI-investment price pressures spread. Discount-rate minutes confirm sectoral differences in labor and costs. September CPI and PPI will test spillovers, while the 2027 policy stance remains dependent on data and the balance of risks.

Fed Watch · October 13, 2026

October 13 | Federal Reserve Focus: Hammack Calls for More Restraint Against AI-Driven Demand, Keeps an Open Mind on an October Hike

Cleveland Fed President Hammack said intensive AI investment and expanding consumption were shifting inflation pressure toward demand and that the economy needed more restraint. She favored smaller, quicker adjustments and remained open to an October hike, while Reuters reported that investors mainly expected a hold. September CPI and the Beige Book were the next tests.

Fed Watch · October 13, 2026

October 13 | Republicans Trail by 8.8 Points in Midterm Polling: What Would a Divided Congress Mean for Fiscal and Financial Policy?

With Republicans under electoral pressure, how would a divided Congress affect fiscal expansion, financial regulation and asset prices?

Fed Watch · October 12, 2026

October 12 | Fed Weekly: Services prices index rises to 74; most participants favor one more rate increase by year-end

September Fed minutes and Governor Waller reinforce a restrictive stance, with most participants favoring one more hike by year-end while retaining meeting-by-meeting flexibility. The September ISM services prices index reached 74, consumer inflation expectations rose for a second month and borrowing costs constrained durable-goods purchases. Low layoffs provide policy room as markets await September CPI, PPI and the Beige Book.

Fed Watch · October 10, 2026

October 10 | Fed: Inflation expectations reach their highest since May as weaker consumption and a governor's investigation complicate policy

The University of Michigan's October survey shows inflation expectations at their highest since May, while a sharp fall in current conditions highlights pressure on immediate buying conditions. With Governor Cook also facing an external investigation, the Fed must balance inflation control against economic weakness before its late-October meeting.

Fed Watch · October 9, 2026

October 9 | Federal Reserve: Officials Favor Further Hikes but Retain Timing Flexibility as Resilient Employment Awaits September CPI

Waller and Musalem signaled further tightening to bring inflation to target while playing down the urgency of a consecutive October hike. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000, but continuing claims edged higher, leaving reemployment worth watching. September CPI and the Beige Book will help determine the policy pace.

Fed Watch · October 8, 2026

October 8 | Federal Reserve: September Minutes Favor Another Hike This Year as Near-Term Inflation Expectations Rebound to 3.9%

September Fed minutes show most participants leaning toward one more hike this year, while near-term inflation expectations rise to 3.9%. Slower August consumer-credit growth challenges the case for continuously strengthening demand; weaker post-meeting inflation and employment data leave markets expecting an October hold, separating the tightening bias from its timing.

Fed Watch · October 7, 2026

October 7 Fed Focus: August Trade Deficit Widens to $105.6 Billion, with Domestic Resilience Offering Little Case for Easing

The U.S. August goods-and-services deficit widened to $105.6 billion. Capital goods and industrial inputs drove real imports up 4.1%, pointing to resilient spending. With policy rates at 3.75%–4%, a trade drag alone offers little case for easing; near-term attention turns to September FOMC minutes and officials' remarks.

Fed Watch · October 6, 2026

October 6 | Federal Reserve: September Services Cost Index Reaches 74 as Divergent Growth Deepens the Rate-Hike Debate

September U.S. services surveys diverged: ISM slowed to 54.9 while S&P Global activity rose to 58.8. Both showed higher input and delivery pressures. ISM prices reached 74.0, the highest since July 2022, undermining the view that slower growth alone will ease inflation. Institutions differ over an October hike; attention turns to September minutes, jobless claims and Fed comments.

Fed Watch · October 5, 2026

October 5 | Federal Reserve Weekly: October Hike Odds Fall to 17%; Payrolls Cool but Cost Pressures Persist

During September 28–October 4, 2026, Fed communication shifted toward policy lags and October hike odds fell to about 17%. August core PCE inflation of 3.0% and only 29,000 September payroll additions support a pause, but resilient consumption and a manufacturing input-price index of 77.9 leave further hikes this year possible. September minutes, Governor Waller's remarks and September CPI are the next tests.

Fed Watch · October 3, 2026

October 3 | Federal Reserve: Just 29,000 September Jobs and Sharp Revisions Raise the Prospect of an October Rate-Hike Pause

September payrolls rose only 29,000, earlier months were revised down a net 60,000 and monthly wage growth slowed to 0.1%, reducing urgency for consecutive increases. October hike odds fell to about 17%. Stable unemployment and hours still argue against a pivot to cuts; attention turns to September minutes, Waller's speech and September CPI.

Fed Watch · October 2, 2026

October 2 | Federal Reserve: Logan Calls for at Least 50 Basis Points of Hikes as Input-Price Index Reaches 77.9

Jefferson says judging the next policy move requires more time, while Logan argues rates still need at least 50 basis points of increases. September's ISM manufacturing input-price index jumped to 77.9. Waiting for data does not mean tightening is over; inflation expectations and the actual restraint from broad financial conditions will shape the path.

Fed Watch · October 1, 2026

October 1 | Federal Reserve Focus: August Core PCE at 3.0%; Strong Consumption Constrains Pivot Expectations

August headline US PCE inflation is a below-forecast 3.4% year on year and core is 3.0%, but monthly inflation accelerates while real consumption grows 0.6%. Governor Cook reaffirms the inflation fight; September payrolls and CPI will shape the next policy decision.

Fed Watch · September 30, 2026

September 30 | Federal Reserve Focus: Williams Sees a Possible Further Hike This Year; August PCE Will Test the Case for Tightening

Fed officials retain the tightening option. On September 29, Williams's conditional personal baseline envisages one more hike this year but allows time to observe; Barr questions the certainty of inflation returning to target. Confidence falls to 81.9 while August JOLTS is broadly unchanged. August PCE will be central to assessing demand and policy.

Fed Watch · September 29, 2026

September 29 | Federal Reserve Focus: Cook Warns AI Investment May Lift Near-Term Inflation as Productivity Gains Lag Spillovers

Fed Governor Cook warned that the AI investment boom could compete for energy and labor and spread price pressures in the near term, while wealth effects appeared to support consumption. Longer-term productivity gains may not offset immediate risks. Dallas Fed survey evidence of active production and rising materials costs continued to support restraint, with markets watching the August PCE report.

Fed Watch · September 28, 2026

September 28 | Fed Weekly: Stronger Demand Lifts Hiking Expectations as Officials Debate Employment Costs

US composite PMI reached its highest since July 2021 as demand and costs strengthened. Williams and Paulson signaled further tightening; Hammack gave no rate path. Musalem and Goolsbee differed over whether disinflation necessarily costs jobs.

Fed Watch · September 26, 2026

September 26 | Fed: Inflation Expectations Rebound Despite Weaker Sentiment; Rate Path Awaits Key Data

Final September Michigan data showed weaker sentiment alongside rising inflation expectations. Slightly better durable-goods buying assessments mainly reflected fears of future price increases and still require spending-data confirmation. After raising rates to 3.75%–4.00% in September, the Fed faces competing considerations; the path depends on August PCE and September payrolls.

Fed Watch · September 25, 2026

September 25 Fed Report: Officials Keep a 2026 Rate Hike in Play as Low Layoffs Support Tightening

Williams and Paulson sent hawkish signals and kept another 2026 rate hike possible. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000, showing limited layoffs and little urgency to ease. The threshold and pace for further hikes will be tested by month-end PCE and payroll data.

Fed Watch · September 24, 2026

September 24 | Fed: September PMI hits its highest since July 2021, strengthening rate-hike expectations

The flash September US composite PMI rose to 58.4, its highest since July 2021, while input-cost inflation reached its highest since October 2022. Strong demand renewed concern over cost pass-through and persistent inflation. Governor Barr said upside inflation risks had increased and further policy adjustment might be needed, without specifying timing or size. Attention turns to August PCE and other data to assess pass-through to final prices.

Fed Watch · September 23, 2026

September 23 | Federal Reserve Focus: Barkin Warns of Business Cost Pass-Through; Demand Resilience in Focus After Hike

Richmond Fed President Barkin sees inflation risks above employment risks and warns that entrenched price increases and cost pass-through may prevent inflation from subsiding naturally. Regional manufacturing shows weaker orders and higher costs. With routine liquidity tools distinct from the policy stance, demand cooling and August PCE will test the tightening path.

Fed Watch · September 22, 2026

September 22 | Federal Reserve Focus: Goolsbee Warns Persistent Supply Shocks May Make Job Losses Unavoidable in the Inflation Fight

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warns that repeated, prolonged supply shocks may force sacrifices in growth and employment to curb inflation. Resilient services and localized AI infrastructure pressure coexist with slower activity; leading labor indicators and PCE data will test the policy path.

Fed Watch · September 21, 2026

September 21 | Fed Weekly: Unanimous 25-Basis-Point Hike Restarts Tightening, Extending High Rates into 2027

The September FOMC unanimously raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. Strong August core retail sales gave the Fed room to prioritize price stability. The SEP delayed inflation's return to target until 2029 and lifted year-end 2026 and 2027 median rates to 4.1%. The medians imply higher for longer, but the dots are neither a collective commitment nor probabilities; further action remains data-dependent.

Fed Watch · September 19, 2026

September 19 | Federal Reserve: August Manufacturing Output Turns Negative, Revealing Restraint but Leaving the Anti-Inflation Path Intact

After September's Fed increase, August manufacturing output fell 0.3%, ending seven monthly gains. Softer equipment and construction add growth constraints, but industrial cooling does not establish weaker services inflation. Low utilization shows no broad capacity shortage. August PCE and final GDP estimates will guide the growth-inflation assessment.

Fed Watch · September 18, 2026

September 18 | Federal Reserve: Low Layoffs and Broader Manufacturing Price Increases Limit a Rapid Shift to Easing

Initial claims fell to 196,000, indicating restrained layoffs. Philadelphia's September survey showed continued manufacturing expansion and the share raising selling prices rising to 33%. With employment intact and cost pass-through spreading, rapid easing remained unlikely; August PCE and September payrolls would test the national picture.

Fed Watch · September 17, 2026

September 17 | Federal Reserve: 25-basis-point hike delivered; dot plot raises year-end rate

The Fed unanimously raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. Higher growth and inflation forecasts and nearly 90% of officials favoring another hike point to sustained restraint through 2027; August PCE on September 30 is the next test.

Fed Watch · September 16, 2026

September 16 Fed Report: New York Manufacturing Slows as Pricing Pressure Rises

Ahead of the Fed decision, New York manufacturing expansion slowed while input costs and selling-price pressures intensified. A 25-basis-point hike was strongly expected; the decision, rate projections and chair's remarks would help reveal how much more tightening was needed.

Fed Watch · September 15, 2026

September 15 | Fed: Hike Expectations Strengthen, but the Subsequent Path Remains Divided

A Reuters poll found 86 economists expecting a 25-basis-point Fed hike this week, a marked shift from the prior week. Further tightening remains disputed; projections and conditions for subsequent hikes are central.

Fed Watch · September 14, 2026

September 14 | Federal Reserve Weekly: Hike Expectations Rise, but Inflation Persistence Remains Unsettled

September 7–13 PPI and CPI reports increased rate-hike expectations as energy and some core prices rose. Annual core inflation still fell and medium-term household expectations remained stable. The September meeting must assess persistence alongside employment and demand.

Fed Watch · September 13, 2026

September 13 | Federal Reserve: Rising inflation expectations add pressure for a September hike

Firmer monthly core CPI and higher household inflation expectations strengthen September hike bets. Concentrated price shocks and weaker consumer confidence leave the case for consecutive hikes uncertain.

Fed Watch · September 12, 2026

September 12 Fed Focus: Renewed Inflation Strengthens the Case for a Rate Increase

U.S. August price growth and household inflation expectations rose, strengthening the case for a Fed increase the following week. Falling annual core inflation and weaker sentiment still left subsequent tightening uncertain.

Fed Watch · September 11, 2026

September 11 | Fed: Rate-hike expectations strengthen ahead of the core inflation test

August US PPI rebounded as energy and transport costs increased, strengthening expectations for a hike next week. Underlying prices remained mixed, making forthcoming core CPI central to assessing cost pass-through and inflation persistence.

Fed Watch · September 10, 2026

September 10 Fed Focus: Hike Expectations Build as Inflation Data Shape the Premeeting Assessment

The Reuters poll share expecting a September hold fell from 90% to about 70%, with more economists expecting a hike this year. August producer and consumer prices before the meeting would test whether the Fed could keep waiting.

Fed Watch · September 9, 2026

September 9 | Fed: Inflation Expectations Stabilize as Employment Confidence Weakens

The New York Fed survey showed slightly lower medium-term inflation expectations and weaker employment and repayment confidence. Living-cost pressure persisted; this week's PPI and CPI would shape the Fed's balance of inflation and growth risks.

Fed Watch · September 8, 2026

September 8 | Federal Reserve Focus: Strong Jobs Ease Growth Concerns; Premeeting Inflation Data Will Shape Policy

August jobs strongly exceeded expectations, reducing growth concerns about tighter policy, but wage growth did not yet provide sufficient grounds for an immediate hike. September 10 PPI and September 11 CPI would be crucial before the September 15-16 meeting. The blackout left markets without new official remarks to calibrate policy expectations.

Fed Watch · September 7, 2026

September 7 | Fed: Blackout begins, with two inflation reports in focus before the meeting

The Fed has entered its blackout. PPI on September 10 and CPI on September 11 will provide new price signals before the September 15–16 meeting.

Fed Watch · September 5, 2026

September 5 | Federal Reserve: Payrolls Beat Expectations; Inflation Will Decide September's Hike Debate

The Fed enters its pre-meeting blackout on September 5, Eastern time, with rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Stronger-than-expected August payrolls eased fears of a labor-market stall, leaving the September 15–16 meeting to choose between holding rates and a 25-basis-point hike, with inflation the key test.

Fed Watch · September 4, 2026

September 4 | Fed: Waller Opens the Door to Holding Rates and Giving Disinflation Time

On September 3 Eastern time, Waller said continued disinflation would favor a September hold, while hot inflation could warrant a hike. Rates have stayed at 3.50%–3.75% since last December; July's 9:3 hold included three regional presidents favoring a hike. Awaiting further data…

Fed Watch · September 3, 2026

September 3 Fed Focus: Beige Book and Williams Align, Leaving September's Hike Decision Open

On September 2, the Beige Book described modest growth, balanced employment and sticky prices, while New York Fed President Williams neither endorsed nor ruled out a September hike. Markets retained roughly 60%–70% odds ahead of payrolls and CPI, awaiting the September 16 decision.

Fed Watch · September 2, 2026

September 2 | Federal Reserve: Two Softer Data Releases Have Little Effect as September Hike Odds Hold Near Two-Thirds

Both major US data releases on September 1 missed consensus. Fed Governor Barr signaled decisive hikes if inflation failed to fall, while the G20 statement emphasized central-bank independence and price stability. September hike pricing remained high as markets focused on oil and hawkish Fed signals.

Fed Watch · September 1, 2026

September 1 | Federal Reserve: Warsh's G20 Debut Says Growth Is Also a Choice as September Hike Odds Reach Two-Thirds

On August 31, 2026 US Eastern time, Fed Chair Warsh made his first multilateral appearance since taking office, opening the G20 finance ministers and central-bank governors meeting alongside Treasury Secretary Bessent. He extended his Jackson Hole statement that inflation is a choice to growth, while September hike pricing rose sharply.

Fed Watch · August 30, 2026

August 30 Fed Report: Warsh Sets an Inflation Hurdle at Jackson Hole as September Hike Odds Return to Even

Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on August 28 offered no conventional forward guidance. He required inflation to move clearly and sufficiently quickly toward 2%, or the Fed would have work to do, lifting September hike bets from about one-third toward even odds.

Fed Watch · August 28, 2026

August 28 | Fed: Jackson Hole opens with hawkish voices, but September hike odds remain near one-third

Jackson Hole opened August 27 with intensive Fed commentary focused on whether 3.50%–3.75% is restrictive enough and whether to act in September. Markets priced a hike at around one-third; clearer guidance awaited Chair Warsh's keynote several hours after the cutoff.

Fed Watch · August 27, 2026

August 27 | Fed Watch: Two Months of Flat Core PCE Leave September Hike Question to Jackson Hole

The inflation report repeatedly moving September hike expectations arrives August 26 US Eastern time. July core PCE stays at 3.3% year on year for a second month, while monthly growth rises from 0.1% to 0.2%. It does not settle September's decision; attention shifts to the imminent…

Fed Watch · August 26, 2026

August 26 | Fed Watch: Inflation Expectations Rise as Tonight's PCE Takes Over the Hike Question

The federal funds target has stayed at 3.50%–3.75% since last December. With hawkish minutes, Collins says failure to cool inflation requires tightening and Barkin avoids predicting a hike. Consumers' inflation expectations have already reached 5.8…

Fed Watch · August 25, 2026

August 25 | Federal Reserve Focus: Silence Before Jackson Hole Leaves Market Pressure on Warsh's Friday Debut

Monday, August 24 is described as the last full US trading day before Jackson Hole. The Fed issues no speeches, new statements or minutes. With long yields at multiyear highs and hike pricing intact, questions accumulate ahead of new Chair Warsh's Friday-morning…

Fed Watch · August 24, 2026

August 24 | Federal Reserve: Weekend Hawks Speak Again as Markets Await Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut

From August 21 through the August 24 cutoff, the Fed released no new policy-related data. The news was communication: Kashkari's Sunday television interview and attention to Jackson Hole. Pro-hike officials again argued more action would ultimately be needed, while investors awaited Warsh.

Fed Watch · August 22, 2026

August 22 | Federal Reserve: Services Stay Hot and Officials Stay Silent, Leaving Policy Questions for Jackson Hole

US flash PMIs on Friday, August 21 were strong, while Fed officials made no public remarks. Warsh has deliberately spoken less since becoming chair in May, leaving markets to await his Jackson Hole debut for clues to September.

Fed Watch · August 21, 2026

August 21 | Federal Reserve: Jobs and Activity Strengthen, but Why Do September Hike Odds Remain Near 30%?

The late-July FOMC held rates at 3.50%–3.75% with three dissenters favoring a 25-basis-point hike. August 19 minutes exposed that hawkish undertone. Strong initial-claims and Philadelphia Fed data add evidence for tightening, but September hike pricing remains only a little above 30%.

Fed Watch · August 20, 2026

August 20 | Fed: July Minutes Reveal Broader Hawkish Support and a Real September Hike Possibility

The July 28–29 FOMC minutes, released August 19 Eastern time, exposed hawkish depth behind the 9–3 vote and made a September hike a live possibility. The target remains 3.50%–3.75%…

Fed Watch · August 19, 2026

August 19 | Federal Reserve: Voting Officials Stay Quiet as Data and Internal Research Reinforce the Hawks

No voting Fed official spoke publicly on August 18 Eastern time, but industrial output, a regional outlook and tariff research pointed to resilience and elevated inflation, leaving little case for easing. The funds target remained 3.50%–3.75%.

Fed Watch · August 18, 2026

August 18 | Federal Reserve: Policy News Pauses as Markets Await Major Signals

From August 17 U.S. Eastern time to about 08:33 Beijing time August 18, Board speech and press-release indexes and regional schedules showed no new entries: no policy speech or statement, rate decision or minutes.

Fed Watch · August 17, 2026

August 17 | Federal Reserve: Weak Consumption Eases September Hike Fears as Goolsbee Requires Months of Confirmation

July retail sales unexpectedly fell on August 14 and preliminary August Michigan sentiment weakened. Goolsbee said reassuring summer prices still needed several months of cooling before confidence in a return to 2%.

Fed Watch · August 14, 2026

August 14 Fed Watch: Flat PPI and Low Layoffs Restore a September Hold as the Base Case

July PPI was flat and initial claims rose to 209,000, putting September hold odds near 67.6%. Sticky core prices shifted expectations toward more observation rather than rate cuts.

Fed Watch · August 13, 2026

August 13 | Federal Reserve: Cooler inflation favors a September hold, but transmission remains uncertain

July CPI and PPI eased, reducing September hike urgency. Energy, shelter and tariff pass-through still require more evidence before a policy turn.

Fed Watch · August 12, 2026

August 12 | Federal Reserve: A Delayed Goolsbee Interview Revives Inflation Concerns as September Odds Stay Near Even

A Goolsbee interview recorded June 22 but released August 11 put high inflation ahead of labor-market weakness. It is historical context rather than a response to July payrolls. Rates remain at 3.50%–3.75%, with September hold and hike probabilities near an even split as markets await CPI.

Fed Watch · August 11, 2026

August 11 | Federal Reserve: Dissenters Press Harder as Cleveland's Hammack Says Now Is the Time to Act

Weak employment had made a September hold the easier baseline. In an August 10 Yahoo Finance interview, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said policy was not meaningfully restrictive and now was the time to act.

Fed Watch · August 10, 2026

August 10 Fed Report: July Employment Cools More Than Expected, Returning a September Hold to the Mainstream

The first hard labor report after July 29 showed an unexpected payroll decline and large prior revisions, shifting September pricing from a hike bias toward holding. Officials had not formally changed policy, and the next test was August 12 CPI.

Fed Watch · August 8, 2026

August 8 | Federal Reserve Focus: July Jobs Weaken Unexpectedly, Restoring a September Hold as the Baseline

The first hard labor report after July 29 shows payrolls unexpectedly down 23,000 and May–June revised lower by 103,000. September hold pricing rises; Barkin calls the labor market neither loose nor tight. Employment has cooled, but the next test remains August 1…

Fed Watch · August 7, 2026

August 7 | Federal Reserve Focus: Warsh Sets Conditions for a Rate Hike; September Still Depends on Inflation

The research window contained no new speech on the Fed's website, but one secondary report was enough to change the narrative. The Financial Times reported on August 6 that Chair Warsh was prepared to support a September hike if inflation ran hot over the coming weeks. Relatively moderate wage and cost data that day left hike odds only slightly above 50%. The real dividing line was the payrolls report due after the deadline and the following week's CPI.

Fed Watch · August 6, 2026

August 6 | A Flurry of Hawkish Fed Comments Leaves September Hike Expectations Unchanged: Kashkari Calls for Small Increases as Markets Await the Data

On August 5, with six weeks until September's policy meeting, several Fed hawks spoke on the same day. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari called for small rate increases starting now, while voting member Cook said she was ready to act without further disinflation. The day's ADP employment and ISM services releases offered a soft…

Fed Watch · August 5, 2026

August 5 | Federal Reserve: September hike odds ease to 57%; Philadelphia's Paulson takes a balanced stance

With six weeks until September's meeting, softer labor and order data and falling oil cut 25-basis-point hike odds from 64% to about 57%. Paulson's first post-July remarks favored keeping an open mind.

Fed Watch · August 4, 2026

August 4 | Fed: Manufacturing beats expectations—why do September hike odds fall?

August 3 brought stronger-than-expected July ISM manufacturing, its highest since May 2022; credit easing for businesses but tightening for households; and Williams' reaffirmation of baseline disinflation. Despite generally hawkish information, market hike pricing moved counterintuitively.

Fed Watch · August 3, 2026

August 3 | Federal Reserve: ECI Shows Sticky Wages, Three Voters Issue Statements and September Hike Odds Hold Near 66%

After the July 28–29 FOMC held rates 9 to 3, the three regional presidents favoring hikes issued July 31 statements. ECI and other data offered little evidence of easing inflation, keeping September hike pricing near 66%.

Fed Watch · August 2, 2026

August 2 | Federal Reserve: Dissenters Make Their Case as September Hike Expectations Rise to 66%

On July 31, the July FOMC's dissenting voices made themselves heard. Three regional Fed presidents who voted for a hike issued formal statements on the same day; St. Louis's Musalem sided with the advocates of action in an FT interview; and reports said Warsh was considering fewer annual meetings. Meanwhile, three economic releases remained elevated…

Fed Watch · August 1, 2026

August 1 Fed Focus: July Hold Leaves Growing Uncertainty Over a September Hike

On July 31, the July FOMC's aftermath lifted the whole Treasury curve, taking the 30-year to 5.27%, its highest since 2007. Markets absorbed a hold accompanied by far greater committee division than expected.

Fed Watch · July 31, 2026

July 31 | Federal Reserve Focus: Rare Three-Way Dissent as Softer Data Fail to Hide Resilient Domestic Demand

On July 28–29 the Fed holds for a fifth time this year, but three votes for a hike add tension. Next-day GDP and June PCE show slower growth and cooler inflation, leaving markets between hawkish policy signals and dovish-looking data.

Fed Watch · July 30, 2026

July 30 | Federal Reserve: Hold draws three hawkish dissents; long-bond selloff tests policy credibility

The July 28–29 Fed meeting held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth time, but three voters sought a 25-basis-point hike. Warsh rejected traditional forward guidance in favor of watching the game rather than the referee.

Fed Watch · July 29, 2026

July 29 | On the Eve of the Fed Decision: A Hold Remains the Base Case as the Tail Risk of a Hike Rises to One-Third

The Federal Reserve will announce its July FOMC decision at 14:00 Eastern time on July 29, approximately 02:00 Beijing time on July 30, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 14:30. The federal funds target range has remained at 3.50%–3.75% since the June 16–17 meeting.

Fed Watch · July 28, 2026

July 28 | Inflation and Payrolls Cool: Why Are Markets Still Betting on a Fed Rate Hike in the Fall?

Plunging oil prices and flat core inflation should have cooled the hawks, yet futures still price at least one hike by September. With Warsh declining to submit a dot and opposing forward guidance, this is the hardest FOMC meeting to read since he took office.