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507 English articles · Original research dates 2026-07-28–2026-10-30507 articles
Daily Market Review
October 30 | Global Markets Daily: Tech Cash Returns Reassessed as Treasury Yields Fall Below 5%
On October 29, 2026, US real GDP growth accelerated to an annualized 3.4% in the third quarter, but real consumer spending was almost flat in September. Heavy capital spending by cloud giants squeezed free cash flow, sending the Nasdaq 100 down 1.38% as money rotated into small caps and financials. Safe-haven demand and softer quarterly PCE inflation pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.98%. The ECB held its rate at 2.50%, while oil and gold both closed lower.
Options
Options Watch | Hang Seng Tech falls 2.84% into rollover as November call and put strikes each add over 2,000 contracts
The Hang Seng Tech Index closed down 2.84% on October 29, the last trading day for October monthly options. Total open interest in Hang Seng Tech options edged lower, while the November 3,900 call and 3,700 put each added more than 2,000 contracts in net open interest. The 3,700 put's quote jumped 49.2%, while the 3,900 call's fell 37%, highlighting the concentration of new positions at key strikes and the trade-offs facing covered-call strategies as they roll forward.
Oil Markets
October 30 | Oil: Brent Edges Down to $114.88 as U.S.–Iran Contacts Ease the Risk Premium, but Diesel Remains Tight
On October 29, 2026, front-month December Brent and WTI crude futures recovered most of their losses after falling more than $2 intraday, settling slightly lower at $114.88 and $102 per barrel, respectively. Reports of U.S.–Iran contacts eroded part of the risk premium, but Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi facilities, constrained Middle Eastern exports, and draws in U.S. crude and distillate inventories continued to support backwardation in oil futures. The market's next focal points are the November 1 OPEC+ meeting, the Middle East's ability to deliver physical supplies, and changes in diesel supply as Russian refineries resume operations.
Fed Watch
October 30 | Fed Watch: Q3 GDP Growth Accelerates to 3.4%, While Elevated September PCE Raises the Bar for Rate Cuts
U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized quarterly rate in Q3, and real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.9%, but September real consumption growth slowed to less than 0.1% month on month. Q3 core PCE inflation eased to a 2.5% annualized rate, while September's year-on-year rate remained 3.1%. The combination of strong growth and high inflation raises the bar for a near-term rate cut, leaving the Fed to monitor forthcoming wage and employment data.
Middle East
October 30 | Iran War Update: Fresh Reports of Tanker Attacks in Hormuz as U.S.–Iran Contacts Remain Short of a Ceasefire Agreement
Reports of ships catching fire and tankers coming under attack have emerged in succession from the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's navy claiming that four tankers struck mines. As maritime security incidents mount, Vance has written to a senior Iranian security official to explore renewed talks, but Washington and Tehran remain sharply divided over the nature of their contacts, ceasefire conditions and arrangements for the nuclear issue.
Crypto
October 30 Crypto Market Review: Broad Sell-Off Amid Binance Security Concerns, Bitcoin Falls Below 80,000 USDT
Binance security concerns added to macroeconomic pressure, pushing Bitcoin below 80,000 USDT; TRX was the only gainer among the ten trading pairs tracked.
Crypto
Funds Flows: More Than $2.367 Billion in Stablecoins Frozen as ETF Subscriptions Favor Bitcoin
Stablecoin freezes add to diverging ETF flows, while renewed inflows into Bitcoin products have yet to expand the stock of on-chain dollars.
Crypto
On-Chain Activity: DEX Volume Rises 42.8%, Ethereum Volume Jumps 137.3%
Daily DEX volume rose 42.8%, with Ethereum contributing the largest increase among the networks sampled; payment and RWA services also expanded.
Crypto
Policy Trends: Galaxy Applies for a Trust Bank as Circle Seeks Cash Treatment for Stablecoins
Galaxy applies for a trust bank, while Circle seeks cash recognition and a zero capital haircut for stablecoins, bringing institutional adoption into the details of regulation.
Crypto
Crypto Market Review, October 29: Eight of Nine Coins Rise, but Ether Turnover Falls 12.82%
A modest crypto rebound after the Fed held rates lacked stronger spot turnover. Bitcoin steadied, while Ether and several major tokens remained weak over the month.
Crypto
Crypto Flows: Bitcoin ETFs Take In US$286.3 Million in Two Days as Stablecoin Supply Falls 1.60% Over a Month
Renewed Bitcoin ETF inflows contrast with Ether ETF redemptions, shrinking dollar stablecoin supply and positive perpetual funding rates.
Crypto
On-Chain Activity: Ethereum DEX Volume Rises 42.2% as Movantis Connects to Stellar
Stronger decentralized exchange activity, DTC's tokenization launch and a planned Stellar payment corridor reveal different stages of on-chain financial adoption.
Crypto
Crypto Policy: Ripple Integrates Its Products as Circle Seeks a Zero Haircut for Eligible Stablecoins
Ripple is linking payments, custody and treasury services, while Circle asks the SEC to clarify cash treatment and remove the 2% broker-dealer haircut for qualifying stablecoins.
Fed Watch
Fed Watch, October 29: Rates Held at 3.75%–4.00% as Two Officials Favor Another Increase
The Fed pauses after September's rate increase to assess tighter credit conditions, while stronger growth and elevated inflation keep further tightening in the debate.
Middle East
Middle East Watch, October 29: Iran Floats a Four-Day Reopening Wait as Shipping Warnings and Yemen Fighting Persist
Diplomacy over reopening the Strait of Hormuz continues, but inspections, sanctions sequencing and fighting in Yemen remain obstacles to restoring shipping.
Daily Market Review
Global Markets, October 29: The 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.05% as Technology Extends the U.S. Stock Rally
AI hardware earnings support equities, but higher long-term yields, expensive energy and heavy cloud investment sharpen the focus on free cash flow.
Oil Markets
Oil Markets, October 29: Middle East Risks and U.S. Inventory Draws Lift WTI Nearly 3% to US$102.78
Supply threats and a fourth consecutive weekly U.S. crude draw support December oil futures, while rising gasoline stocks complicate the demand outlook.
Options
Options Watch: A Hang Seng Call Loses 40% Despite an Index Gain as Hardware Trading Picks Up
Time decay and lower implied volatility erode near-expiry index options, while rising hardware-stock option turnover masks divergent changes in open interest.
Crypto
Crypto Market Review, October 28: Bitcoin Reclaims 80,000 as a Low-Turnover Rebound Leaves Divisions Unresolved
Bitcoin recovers above 80,000 USDT, but weaker aggregate turnover, competition from AI investments and divided positioning leave the recovery unconfirmed.
Crypto
Crypto Flows: Bitcoin ETFs Regain US$110 Million as Stablecoin Supply Keeps Shrinking
A return to Bitcoin ETF inflows remains concentrated in IBIT, while Ether ETFs lose assets, stablecoin supply contracts and perpetual positions edge lower.
Crypto
On-chain Activity: Nearly Half of Solana’s Tokenized Credit Assets Enter Lending Protocols
Tokenized credit is finding a place in Solana lending. Borrowing utilization and the ability to liquidate collateral will determine how far that use can grow.
Crypto
Policy Trends: BNY Expands Token Custody as 26 Companies Object to Stock Tokenization
Banks are expanding custody and on-chain funds are launching, while stock tokenization faces issuer objections. Legal rights and responsibilities are becoming central.
Fed Watch
Fed Watch: Pause Probability Rises to 92.8% as Investment and Consumer Expectations Diverge
September equipment orders and shipments grew, and October consumer confidence recovered, but spending plans remained weak. Markets raised the probability of unchanged rates to 92.8%.
Middle East
Middle East Update: Diplomatic Contacts Continue as Two Straits Come Under Pressure
Qatar urged Iran to reopen Hormuz as ceasefire terms remained unresolved. Fighting near Bab el-Mandeb widened, and maritime risks reached energy infrastructure and water security.
Daily Market Review
Global Markets Daily: Oil Retreats as US$63 Billion Financing Lifts AI Shares
A US$63 billion AI-compute financing lifted chip stocks and the S&P 500. Oil and long Treasury yields fell, but short rates, the dollar and funding costs continued to constrain the recovery’s breadth.
Oil Markets
Oil Markets: Brent Falls for a Second Day, but the Front Spread Stays Near US$5
Hopes for easing Middle East tensions drove a second day of oil declines, but Brent’s front spread remained near US$5 a barrel. Further downside depends on transport and inventory recovery.
Options
Options Watch: Near-Month Hang Seng Calls Fall as November Takes Four-Fifths of New Open Interest
The Hang Seng fell 0.73%, and the October 23,400 call’s official quotation dropped about 75.8%. November absorbed 79.3% of new open interest as next-month put positions accumulated.
AI Watch
Anthropic’s IPO Filing: US$80.7 Billion Loss Reflects Financing Revaluations as Operations Turn Profitable
Anthropic’s filing reveals rapid enterprise growth and a profitable second quarter. Financing revaluations explain its huge net loss, while compute commitments, research spending, share compensation and governance shape common shareholders’ returns.
Crypto
Crypto Market Review: Bitcoin Holds 80,000 as Treasury Companies Shift Cash to Buybacks
Bitcoin held 80,000 USDT while Ether edged lower. Institutional views diverged, and Strategy and other crypto treasury companies directed more cash toward share repurchases.
Crypto
Crypto Flows: Futures Positions Rebuild, but ETF Inflows Remain Uneven
Contract open interest increased, ETF inflows remained unstable and dollar-pegged stablecoin supply continued to contract.
Crypto
On-chain Activity: DEX Volume Rises 32.5% to US$7.934 Billion as Protocol Revenue Retention Diverges
October 26 DEX volume rose 32.5% to US$7.934 billion. Ethereum-related networks moved above recent averages, but protocols differed sharply in the revenue they retained.
Crypto
Policy Trends: U.S. and Hong Kong Advance Stablecoin Access as Tokenized Stocks Add Trading and Registry Links
The OCC encouraged community banks to prepare stablecoin applications, Hong Kong licensees continued testing, and an issuer-led stock-tokenization coalition added trading, registry and infrastructure firms.
Fed Watch
Fed Watch: Texas Orders Fall to 9.3 as Prices Rise; Markets See Nearly 75% Chance of Another Hike This Year
Texas manufacturing orders and shipments slowed, while input and output price pressures rose. Markets favored a pause this week but assigned nearly 75% probability to another increase before year-end.
Middle East
Middle East Update: Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish Officials Mediate in Tehran as U.S. Forces Prepare for Action Within 96 Hours
Regional officials held talks in Tehran while U.S. forces reportedly prepared for potential expanded operations. The sequencing of Hormuz access, port reopening and nuclear issues remained unresolved.
Daily Market Review
Global Markets Daily: AI Lifts U.S. Shares, Treasury Yields Hold at 5%, and Brazil Sells Off After the Election
AI revenue and chip demand lifted U.S. equities, but high yields and funding costs persisted. Brazil’s post-election selloff disrupted borrowing, while Chinese liquidity support coexisted with issuer-specific credit risks.
Oil Markets
Oil Markets: Brent Retreats to US$115.81, but Its Front-Month Premium Remains US$4.98
Diplomacy eased oil prices, while transport and infrastructure risks kept prompt supply tight. Brent’s front spread remained US$4.98 as product exports and onshore inventory rebuilding lagged.
Options
Options Watch: Hang Seng 23,000 Put Quote Nearly Halves as a One-Point Deep-OTM Contract Leads Volume
The October 23,000 put’s official quote fell to 94 points while implied volatility rose to 22%. A one-point 19,000 put led volume, and aggregate open interest continued to grow.
Crypto
Crypto Market Review: Bitcoin Retreats to 80,000; Only BNB Gains in the Major-Coin Sample
Bitcoin’s midweek rebound faded under technology and Middle East risks. Weekly turnover declined, and concentrated Bitcoin ETF buying failed to broaden into a sustained rally across major coins.
Crypto
Crypto Flows: Bitcoin ETFs Give Back 70% of a US$1 Billion Inflow as Derivatives Lack Spot Support
Early-week Bitcoin ETF buying reversed, Ether ETFs lost funds and stablecoin supply contracted. Higher funding rates and coin-denominated open interest lacked sustained spot demand.
Crypto
On-chain Activity: Weekly DEX Volume Falls 10.87% as Tokenized Stocks Enter Looping Loans
On-chain spot trading and fees declined, but tokenized funds and equities gained new financing uses. Sustainable protocol income depends on demand retained after subsidies end.
Crypto
Policy Trends: Stablecoin Rules and Bank Payments Advance as 22 Companies Object to Stock Tokenization
The OCC finalized stablecoin rules, HSBC brought RedCoin to PayMe and JPM Coin expanded to Ethereum. Stock tokenization faced 22 issuer objections and unresolved market-access arrangements.
Fed Watch
Fed Weekly: October Pause Expected as Business Prices and Inflation Expectations Build Consensus for a December Hike
During the October 19–25 blackout week, a Reuters poll found more than nine in ten economists expecting rates to stay at 3.75%–4.00% in October, while all expected a December increase. Stronger selling prices, rising household inflation expectations and initial jobless claims of 194,000 supported expectations of further tightening.
Middle East
Middle East Weekly: U.S.–Iran Talks Stall over Enriched Uranium and Blockade Relief as Hormuz and Saudi Energy Routes Face Pressure
Indirect U.S.–Iran contacts continued during October 19–25, but uranium custody and the sequencing of port-blockade and sanctions relief remained unresolved. Tanker transfers, threats to Gulf infrastructure and Houthi attacks put both maritime and overland energy routes under pressure.
Daily Market Review
Global Markets Weekly: Treasuries Rally as AI Financing Pressure Weighs on Stocks and Corporate Bonds
Long-term Treasury yields fell over the week, but AI funding needs widened credit premiums and weighed on technology shares. Brent gained 6.24% and gold lost 4.14% as investors focused on the cost of growth and the timing of cash returns.
Oil Markets
Oil Weekly: Brent Gains 6.24% as Shipping Risks Persist Despite Middle East Exports Exceeding Prewar Levels
Middle East oil exports recovered to 17.3 million barrels a day, but tanker rates near US$1.4 million a day and renewed infrastructure risks supported prices. Brent rose to US$116.72 and WTI to US$103.27 a barrel. U.S. inventory draws and steep backwardation kept attention on shipping recovery and the November 1 OPEC+ meeting.
Options
Options Weekly: Hang Seng Falls 4.52% as Open Interest Rises 24.5% and Near-Month Puts Retreat from Their Peak
Monthly Hang Seng option volume concentrated on Thursday and Friday, while open interest rose to 119,123 contracts. October 23,000 puts climbed to 306 points before falling to 180. Put positioning diverged across strikes, and Xiaomi, Tencent and Alibaba options reflected a mixture of rebound and downside trades.
Crypto
Crypto Market Review: Bitcoin Recovers after Breaking Below 80,000 as Ether Continues to Lag
Middle East risks triggered an intraday selloff and long liquidations. Bitcoin recovered most of its fall below 80,000 USDT on lighter turnover, while Ether continued to underperform.
Crypto
Crypto Flows: Bitcoin ETFs Give Back 70% of Early-Week Inflows as Futures Positions Rise but Funding Rates Fall
Bitcoin ETFs reversed 72% of their early-week inflows and stablecoin supply contracted. Saturday’s BTC perpetual open interest rose about 2%, while declining funding rates showed restrained demand to chase longs.
Crypto
On-chain Activity: BNB Chain Tokenized Stocks Trade US$25.6 Billion, while Crypto-Native Trading Drives Much of the Fee Growth
Daily DEX volume fell to US$6.986 billion. BNB Chain’s third-quarter tokenized-stock turnover reached US$25.6 billion, while GMGN generated more than one-third of incremental network transaction fees.
Crypto
Crypto Policy: BPI Questions Case-by-Case Stablecoin Yield Reviews as a Warned Platform Opens a Hong Kong Office
BPI challenged the transparency of OCC reviews of third-party stablecoin rewards. In Hong Kong, an office opened by a platform on regulatory warning lists drew attention to the difference between a physical presence and licensed access.
Middle East
Middle East Update: Blockade Holds Up U.S.–Iran Shipping Talks as Houthi Attacks Target Saudi Energy Routes and Aden
The United States and Iran had yet to agree how to lift the port blockade and reopen Hormuz. Trump kept both military action and a deal in play. Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi pipelines, energy facilities and airports, alongside missiles fired at Aden, widened the conflict’s reach.
Research
S&P Rewrites U.S. Growth and Value Rules: Intangible Assets, Less Momentum and the Reallocation of US$375 Billion in Passive Assets
S&P Dow Jones Indices’ new U.S. style rules take effect before the December 21 open. Growth drops 12-month price momentum; value adds intangible-adjusted book value, forward earnings and free cash flow. The implications for classification, accounting, backtests and net rebalance demand extend beyond the headline US$375 billion of linked passive assets.
Crypto
Crypto Market Review: Bitcoin Edges Lower on Lighter Volume as Eight of Ten Major Tokens Fall
Bitcoin slipped 0.28% on lower turnover, with eight of ten sampled major tokens declining. Technology-sector financing concerns and US$635.6 million of Bitcoin ETF outflows constrained buying.
Crypto
Crypto Flows: Bitcoin ETFs Lose US$635.6 Million as Futures Open Interest Falls but Funding Rates Rise
Bitcoin ETF redemptions and shrinking stablecoin supply slowed new funding. Binance BTC open interest fell about 3%, while the final eight-hour funding rate rose to 0.01%.
Crypto
On-chain Activity: DEX Volume Falls to US$7.477 Billion as Solana Activates Off-chain Voting
DEX daily turnover fell and dollar TVL declined across six major networks. Solana activated Votor, while stablecoin swaps illustrated demand for lending and yield strategies. Turning faster settlement into durable paid usage remained the key test.
Crypto
Crypto Policy: HSBC Brings a Hong Kong Dollar Stablecoin to PayMe as the OCC Publishes Final Issuer Rules
HSBC announced the RedCoin Hong Kong dollar stablecoin through PayMe. The U.S. OCC’s final rules set at least 1:1 reserve backing and retain the ban on issuer-paid yield, while third-party rewards remain subject to individual assessment.
Fed Watch
Fed Watch: U.S. Businesses Raise Prices Faster as Short- and Long-Term Inflation Expectations Rise for a Second Month
October’s U.S. composite output index was 57.6, while selling prices rose at their fastest pace since August 2022. Michigan’s final one-year and long-term inflation expectations increased to 4.7% and 3.5%, strengthening the case for maintaining anti-inflation pressure ahead of the Fed meeting.
Middle East
October 24 | Iran Update: Tehran Threatens Gulf Undersea Cables as Eight Foreign Ministers Call for De-escalation
Iranian security officials say renewed U.S. and Israeli attacks would trigger strikes on Gulf undersea communications cables and efforts to obstruct repairs, extending risk from oil shipping to digital infrastructure. Eight European and regional foreign ministers meeting in Istanbul opposed further military action against Iran, while Britain, France and Germany offered to resume nuclear talks.
Daily Market Review
October 24 | Global Financial Markets Daily: Oil's Further Rise Sends 10-Year Treasuries Back to 5%, Credit Spreads Widen
On October 23, higher US PMI output prices, a more than 3% rise in crude and a rebound in household inflation expectations pushed the 10-year Treasury yield back to 5.00% and global corporate bond spreads to 129 basis points. The S&P 500 and Dow fell and gold retreated. China's fiscal-financial coordination supported over RMB 28 trillion of credit in the first three quarters, while interest subsidies for first-home mortgages entered implementation.
AI Watch
Neocloud Prospects Falter: CoreWeave Shares Fall More Than 30% This Month as Bond Yields Top 15%
A $100 billion order book cannot close the funding gap: examining neocloud creditor hierarchies, delivery risk and renewal risk.
Oil Markets
Oil Markets: Brent Reaches US$116.72 as Middle East Transport Risks and U.S. Inventory Draws Erode Buffers
December WTI and Brent settled at US$103.27 and US$116.72 on October 23. Risks to Saudi production and transport, a UAE offshore spill and three weeks of U.S. crude draws left safe delivery routes more important for near-term supply than output targets alone.
Options
Options Watch: Xiaomi Rebounds 3.88%, but Its Active HK$28 Call Loses 24% of Open Interest
Xiaomi closed at HK$26.80 on October 23. Its October 29 HK$28 call traded 6,363 contracts while total open interest fell to 7,682, about one-third below a week earlier. The HK$25 put’s settlement price more than halved, but its open interest edged up to 8,719.
Crypto
October 23 Crypto Market Review: Bitcoin Falls 3.18% Alongside Tech Stocks as Major Tokens Retreat
A retreat in technology stocks triggered risk aversion. BTC fell 3.18% to 81,416 USDT and ETH lost 3.42%; major tokens declined broadly as upgrade news failed to offset selling pressure.
Crypto
Fund Flows: Bitcoin ETFs Take In More Than $1 Billion in Three Days, but Deleveraging Sends Bitcoin Down Over 3%
Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.0747 billion in three days, but more than $400 million in long liquidations and shrinking derivatives positions on October 22 drove Bitcoin down 3.18%.
Crypto
On-chain activity: DEX volume falls 8% as Solana speeds settlement and adds JPMorgan money funds
DEX volume fell 8.15% to $8.144 billion on October 22. Solana targets 150-millisecond finality and adds JPMorgan money market funds.
Crypto
Policy Trends: US Finalizes Stablecoin Rules; Coinbase Ireland Fined €3.25 Million
OCC finalizes stablecoin rules effective in early 2027; Coinbase Ireland fined €3.25 million; Thailand has yet to receive a spot ETF application.
Fed Watch
October 23 | Federal Reserve: Initial Claims Fall to 194,000, but Hiring Remains Weak Despite Low Layoffs
US initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 while continuing claims rose. Manufacturing costs increased, but firms' pricing power was constrained. The October policy meeting will test how the Fed balances low layoffs, weak hiring and price pressure.
Research
Gold Falls Below $4,000 After a Nearly 14% Two-Month Drawdown: How Tighter Policy Expectations and Divided Buying Weigh on Prices
Why gold has fallen sharply: a reassessment of monetary policy, diverging buyers, and the still-unidentified trigger behind the latest selloff.
Middle East
October 23 | Iran conflict update: U.S. disputes ship-attack claims; Aramco headquarters staff evacuated
Iran says seven ships were attacked or struck mines; the U.S. accuses it of fabrication. Dammam airport reopens and Aramco reportedly evacuates headquarters as the blockade and navigation talks continue.
Daily Market Review
October 23 | Global Financial Markets Daily: Tech Shares Slump as the 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls Below 5%
The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.90%, reviving concerns about financing AI investment. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.96%; Brent gained nearly 4%, gold weakened, and the French-German spread reached its highest since 2011.
Oil Markets
October 23 Oil Report: Brent Gains Nearly 4% as Shipping Risks Meet U.S. Inventory Draws
Brent rose 3.91% as risks to Middle Eastern energy facilities and shipping lifted the supply premium and U.S. commercial crude stocks fell for a third week. Exports continued and distillate stocks began rebuilding; further gains depend on actual loadings and inventory recovery.
Options
Options Watch: Hang Seng Options Volume Nearly Doubles as Tencent Put Positions Shift to Lower Strikes
Hong Kong's sharp selloff drove Hang Seng options volume up 94.5% and raised put-protection costs. Open interest fell in Tencent HK $400 puts and rose in HK $370 puts, shifting the distribution toward lower strikes.
Crypto
Crypto Market Review, October 22: Bitcoin Regains 84,000 USDT as Major Tokens Recover Unevenly
A recovery in technology stocks helped Bitcoin regain 84,000 USDT. Eight of ten major tokens rose, but Ethereum still lagged Bitcoin despite a sharp increase in turnover.
Crypto
Fund Flows: Bitcoin ETFs Take In Nearly $550 Million in Two Days as Stablecoin Supply Shrinks by $2.6 Billion
Bitcoin ETFs attract nearly $550 million over two days while Ethereum ETFs face net redemptions. Stablecoin supply falls $2.6 billion in a week, and perpetual-futures longs continue to pay funding.
Crypto
On-Chain Developments: Solana Activates Votor Consensus as DEX Volume Edges Down to $8.8 Billion
DEX volume totaled $8.843 billion on October 21; Solana activated Votor consensus, while CoolWallet and oTFY expanded on-chain lending.
Crypto
Policy Trends: OCC Announces Final U.S. Stablecoin Rules, Effective January 2027
The OCC announced final U.S. stablecoin rules effective January 18, 2027, specifying licensing transition arrangements and the review of rewards.
Fed Watch
October 22 | Federal Reserve Focus: Weekly Earnings Growth Trails Prices by 2 Percentage Points
Weekly earnings for full-time U.S. employees rose 1.5% year on year in the third quarter, versus a 3.5% price increase. Real weekly earnings fell both annually and quarterly. Weaker purchasing power reduced wage support for consumption, while high inflation continued to limit the Fed's room to cut rates.
Research
French Sovereign Risk Is Being Repriced: Are There Arbitrage Opportunities in Euro-Area Government Bond Spreads?
France's risk premium is being redistributed across maturities, with marked differences between front-end carry, intermediate relative value and long-end fiscal risk.
Middle East
October 22 | Iran Update: Saudi Airport Attack Kills One and Injures Eight; U.S. Orders Personnel to Leave
Diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran continue, but Gulf security has yet to improve. An attack on a Saudi airport killed one person and injured eight. The United States ordered some government personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia and expanded Iran-related sanctions to the shipping services network.
Daily Market Review
October 22 | Global markets daily: Technology leads stocks higher as Treasury yields stay elevated
The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.13% on technology revenue growth. High Treasury yields weighed on mortgages; crude draws supported oil and rates restrained gold, while liquidity and industrial support eased some financing pressure.
Oil Markets
October 22 | Oil: Three-Week Draw of 14.8 Million Barrels Meets Resilient Exports
US commercial crude inventories fell 14.803 million barrels over three weeks, supporting oil. Alternative Middle Eastern transport sustains exports while diplomatic hopes cap gains; inventory and actual-delivery turning points are key.
Options
Options Watch: Tencent Falls Below HK$400 as Put Trading Surges but Open Interest Declines
Tencent fell 4.04%, with options volume reaching 1.89 times its 20-day average while put open interest declined. Short-dated contract repricing and Hang Seng TECH covered-call positions reveal the different trade-offs between downside protection and premium income.
Crypto
October 21 Crypto Market Review: Bitcoin Reclaims 83,000 USDT, but a Broad Rally Leaves Monthly Divergence Intact
Bitcoin regained 83,000 USDT as falling oil lifted major tokens. J.P. Morgan made its first 10% annualized return forecast, while ETF flows remained concentrated.
Crypto
Capital Flows: Bitcoin ETF Buying Concentrates in IBIT as Contract Leverage Recovers Faster Than Stablecoin Supply
Bitcoin ETFs attract $526.7 million of net inflows concentrated in IBIT, while stablecoin supply edges down and contract funding rates and open interest recover first.
Crypto
On-Chain Developments: DEX Volume Falls to $7.183 Billion as Stablecoin Payments and Settlement Infrastructure Expand
DEX volume falls to $7.183 billion on October 20 while protocol revenue rises 4.57%. Third-quarter stablecoin transfers reach $891 billion.
Crypto
Policy trends: 16 companies oppose OKXICE stock tokenization; Ramp seeks trust-bank charter
Sixteen listed companies oppose trading their tokenized shares on OKXICE; Ramp applies to the OCC for a trust-bank charter to expand custody.
Fed Watch
October 21 | Fed: All Reuters Poll Respondents Expect a December Hike; Over 90% See an October Hold
Reuters' October 20 poll found all 100 economists expecting a December Fed hike and 94 expecting unchanged rates in October; about 41% saw at least two further hikes this cycle. Falling September single-family starts and permits support an October pause, but resilient growth and slow PCE disinflation sustain expectations of further tightening this year.
Middle East
October 21 | Iran Update: Mediation and US Deployments Proceed Together as Tehran Demands the Blockade End Before Nuclear Talks
Pakistan's army chief Munir traveled to Tehran to mediate, and Qatar confirmed continuing US-Iran contacts. Iran nevertheless insists on lifting the port blockade, ending oil sanctions and regional hostilities first, while keeping enriched nuclear material at home. The IMO says mine threats persist in Hormuz and Iran's temporary route lacks approval. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group is heading to the Middle East as diplomacy and military deterrence continue in parallel.
Research
Japan's 10-Year Yield Nears 3% and Rate Expectations Reach 1.5%: How Higher Japanese Rates Reshape Treasury and Dollar Pricing
A Reuters poll finds nearly seven in ten economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates to 1.50% by quarter-end, while 10- and 30-year Japanese yields approach 3% and 4%. Higher domestic returns in the largest foreign holder of Treasuries and a global source of cheap funding are reshaping dollar-asset pricing through term premiums, currency-hedging costs and leveraged carry trades, transmitting refinancing pressure to sovereign bonds and $14.7 trillion in offshore dollar credit.
Daily Market Review
October 21 | Global Financial Markets Daily Review: Long-Term Treasury Yields Ease, Dow Gains More Than 1%, Cash Flows Remain Under Scrutiny
On October 20, 2026, US September housing starts fell for a third consecutive month. Together with oil's retreat from intraday highs, this pushed 10- and 30-year Treasury yields lower. The Dow and small caps outperformed large technology stocks, but high funding costs kept earnings delivery, free cash flow and refinancing costs under scrutiny across traditional blue chips and AI infrastructure.
Oil Markets
October 21 | Oil: Brent settles at $108.79 as US–Iran negotiation rumors shake prices, while physical supply remains tight
International oil prices slipped about 0.7% on October 20 after sharp swings, with December Brent and WTI settling at $108.79 and $97.82. Unconfirmed US–Iran negotiation rumors, fully long trend-following positions and the expiry of November WTI amplified volatility. Record tanker rates, constrained product shipments and steep global onshore inventory draws indicate that physical constraints persist; sustained price declines still depend on actual arrivals and the pace of stock depletion.
Options
Options Watch | Pop Mart Options Volume Surges 186% Against the Market Trend as November Puts Add Nearly 10,000 Contracts
Hong Kong stock-option volume fell 4.8% on October 20, while Pop Mart volume surged 185.6% to 118,500 contracts, lifting its market share to 14.5%. Disagreement over third-quarter sales and concerns about potential share supply drove a combined 9,436-contract increase in open interest in November HK$135 and HK$132.50 puts. Implied volatility on the HK$135 put reached 31%, extending the risk-pricing horizon into late November.
Crypto
October 20 Crypto Market Review: Bitcoin Fades After Topping 83,000 as Turnover Stays Below Its Monthly Average
BTC closed down 0.22% after topping 83,000, with turnover below its monthly average. JPM Coin reached Ethereum, while Strategy balanced Bitcoin purchases with preferred-share buybacks.
Crypto
Capital Flows: BTC Perpetual Open Interest Rises 2% While ETF and Stablecoin Funding Has Yet to Return
BTC perpetual open interest rises 2.05% and options retain downside protection; spot ETF outflows narrow, while dollar stablecoin supply falls $1.7 billion in a week.
Crypto
On-Chain Developments: DEX Volume Rises to $7.85 Billion as Yield Vaults Add Paid Risk Protection
Daily DEX volume recovered 10.5% to $7.85 billion while protocol revenue slipped 0.5%; Kraken and RWA vaults integrated Firelight's paid protection.
Crypto
Policy Trends: U.S. Stablecoin Comment Period Closes as Mastercard and Deutsche Bank Advance Payment Controls and Custody
Comments on proposed U.S. stablecoin rules were due October 19, while Mastercard, AnchorWatch and Deutsche Bank advanced payment risk controls and custody services.
Fed Watch
October 20 | Federal Reserve: US Housing Market Index Falls to 29 as Rate Hikes Hit Sectors Unevenly
The US NAHB Housing Market Index falls from 32 in September to 29 in October, its lowest since June 2012. Price cuts by 43% of surveyed builders fail to offset high rates and costs. Credit-sensitive sectors contract while AI investment expands, and markets expect the Fed to pause rate hikes in October as it weighs disinflation against uneven tightening effects.
Research
French 10-Year Yield Approaches 5% as Street Protests Trigger a Reassessment of Fiscal Execution
France's 10-year government-bond yield is approaching 5%. Can fiscal consolidation be implemented, and how will higher rates feed through to banks and businesses?
Middle East
October 20 | Iran War Update: Lavrov's Visit Leaves Strait Deadlock Intact; Houthi Camp Strike Kills 53, Riyadh Summit Postponed
Lavrov held talks in Iran, with Pakistan's military chief expected to follow, but Washington and Tehran remained divided over the sequence of lifting the port blockade and reopening the strait. A Houthi missile strike on a Yemeni camp killed 53 and wounded 200; Saudi Arabia issued air alerts, and Riyadh's annual FII conference was postponed until 2027.
Daily Market Review
October 20 | Global Markets Daily: Technology Stocks Lift US Equities as the 10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5.15%
Cloud and chip stocks lifted the Nasdaq 100 by 1.17% on October 19, while leveraged computing providers faced expensive debt. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 5.15%; US housing sentiment hit its lowest since June 2012. Russian-sanctions exemptions and recovering Gulf supply lowered prompt Brent, while gold fell 0.67% under pressure from the dollar and real yields. China's third-quarter GDP grew a stronger-than-expected 4.5%.
Oil Markets
October 20 Oil Report: Russia Sanctions Waivers Weigh on Deferred Crude, but Prompt WTI Rises 2.2%
Partial U.S. relief from Russian sanctions nudged December crude contracts lower on October 19, but expiring November WTI rose 2.2%, a $5.12-per-barrel premium to December. Russian refining constraints, Hormuz flows 41% below prewar levels and a 113-million-barrel September draw in global onshore stocks continued to support prompt prices.
Options
Options watch | Alibaba U.S. options gain 130 trading minutes; Hang Seng volume jumps over 50% before holiday
Extended U.S. options hours began October 19, moving cross-market hedging earlier. Hang Seng options volume rose 50.6% on October 16 but open interest only 2.2%; attention turns to position retention and volatility ahead of October 23 and 29 expiries.
Crypto
October 19 Crypto Market Review: Bitcoin Holds 80,000 After a 1.98% Weekly Loss; Nine of Ten Major Coins Fall
An upside US CPI surprise dampened risk appetite. Bitcoin lost 1.98% for the week but held 80,000 USDT; Ether fell 4.99%, and nine of ten major coins declined.
Crypto
Capital Flows: Weekly Spot ETF Outflows Fall to $548.5 Million as Perpetual Long Funding Costs Rise
US spot BTC and ETH ETF outflows narrow to $548.5 million for the week, stablecoin supply falls $1.445 billion, and contract funding rates and implied volatility rise.
Crypto
On-chain activity: Weekly DEX volume rebounds 3.31% while locked value and fees edge lower
Weekly DEX volume rose 3.31% to $58.988 billion as locked value and fees fell. USDG and real-world assets expanded further into payments and lending.
Crypto
Policy Trends: CFTC Seeks Input on Retail Leverage; Polygon Closes Coinme Acquisition
The CFTC is consulting on retail leveraged trading rules, while Polygon's acquisition of Coinme extends its payments business across 48 states.
Fed Watch
October 19 | Fed Weekly: September CPI Rises to 3.7%; October or December Rate Hike Still Undecided
September US CPI rose to 3.7% year on year, core CPI rebounded to 2.6%, and PPI increased 1.3% month on month, indicating broader transmission of energy costs. Officials generally support further tightening this year but differ on pace and productivity. Chair Warsh gave no advance October signal; market odds of a 25-basis-point October hike rose to 43.7% after CPI before falling to about 15%.
Research
Indonesian Stocks Plunge to Six-Year Lows: MSCI Consults on Standalone Status as Market-Manipulation Crisis Forces a Foreign Capital Reassessment
Indonesia's stock-market rout: how could MSCI's consultation on standalone status affect capital flows and corporate financing?
Middle East
October 19 | Iran Weekly: US–Iran Deadlock Over Reopening Hormuz as a Merchant Ship Sinks and Fighting Spreads to Saudi Arabia
During October 12–18, Iran reiterated its six-day strait-reopening proposal, but the agenda remained divided between nuclear talks first and blockade and sanctions relief first. The Singapore-flagged GFS Pride sank after an attack, Iran planned strikes beyond Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman, and Saudi–Houthi exchanges affected Aramco facilities and Riyadh airport. Egypt began considering authorization to help defend Saudi Arabia.
Daily Market Review
October 19 | Global Markets Weekly: Oil Tops $100, Treasury Yields Fall and the Nasdaq 100 Loses 5.49%
During October 12–18, WTI jumped 10.41% above $100, US September CPI rose 3.7% year on year, and fuel bills squeezed core retail growth. Growth concerns lowered the 10-year Treasury yield by 15 basis points as high-yield spreads widened. Computing-related debt and chip competition triggered a technology repricing, sending the Nasdaq 100 down 5.49%.
Oil Markets
October 19 Weekly Oil Report: WTI Jumps 10.41% Above $100 as Recovering Gulf Exports Fail to Rebuild Onshore Stocks
In the October 12–18 week, WTI rose 10.41% to $101.41/barrel and Brent gained 4.91% to $109.86. Gulf crude exports recovered to 13.9 million barrels/day in September, but much of the increase remained at sea as global onshore stocks fell 113 million barrels. U.S. crude and diesel draws and higher December 2027 Brent and European diesel prices signaled a longer recovery.
Options
Options Watch | HKEX adds 12 stock-option classes; Hang Seng open interest rises over 6% as the index ends the week almost flat
In the week of October 12–18, the Hang Seng Index slipped 0.10%, while Hang Seng option open interest rose 6.4% to 95,687 contracts. Intraweek index swings produced substantial changes in the quoted price of the 24,000 put. HKEX announced 12 additional stock-option classes, with weekly contracts available from launch, extending weekly-option coverage to 66 underlying securities. Cboe also added premarket and after-hours US equity-option trading from October 19.
Crypto
October 18 Crypto Review: Bitcoin Trades Sideways on Thin Volume as Major Coins All Fall
Major coins all fell on October 17. BTC slipped 0.15% to 81,491 USDT as turnover fell to about 40% of its 30-day average.
Crypto
Capital Flows: US Crypto ETFs Lose $548.5 Million for the Week as BTC Funding Eases over the Weekend
US crypto ETFs post $548.5 million in weekly outflows and stablecoins shrink $1.124 billion; BTC funding eases, ETH switches signs, and DVOL edges higher.
Crypto
On-chain Update: DEX daily volume falls 21.8%; application revenue still depends on trading demand
Daily DEX turnover fell 21.8% to $6.529 billion. Solana applications generated $193 million over 30 days, while RWA and stablecoins expanded into lending.
Crypto
Policy Trends: U.S. Stablecoin Rules Expected by End-October as Japan and Hong Kong Test Cross-Border and Merchant Settlement
The OCC expected final stablecoin rules by end-October; Japan's three major banks tested cross-border settlement, and Hong Kong completed an HKDAP merchant payment.
Middle East
October 18 | Iran War Update: Two Tankers Attacked off Saudi Arabia; US and Iran Exchange Negotiating Terms as Egypt Considers Aid
UKMTO reported on October 17 that two tankers had been attacked off Saudi Arabia on October 16, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed two tankers struck mines in Hormuz. The US and Iran continue exchanging terms through Qatar and Oman, and Egypt's parliament is due to consider defensive aid to Saudi Arabia on October 18.
AI Watch
Who Is Paying for Nearly $600 Billion in AI Investment?
Big Tech investment is absorbing incremental operating cash. Equipment replacement, customer payments and financing conditions will determine the risk of recovering that investment.
AI Watch
Five Tech Giants Issue $219 Billion of Bonds This Year as AI Capital Spending Consumes Cash-Flow Headroom and Reshapes Debt–Equity Financing
AI capital expenditure is squeezing technology giants' cash-flow headroom. A comparison of five companies' investment, debt and equity financing explains heavy issuance despite high interest rates and the constraints posed by ratings, long-term commitments and investment returns.
Crypto
October 17 crypto market review: Bitcoin reverses to fall 0.77%; major coins decline on lighter volume
U.S. stocks and oil pressure crypto as Bitcoin reverses to lose 0.77%. Major coins fall on lighter volume, while MSCI's new rules test future buying capacity.
Crypto
Fund Flows: Bitcoin ETFs Turn Slightly Positive, Ethereum Redemptions Continue and Binance BTC Positions Stabilize
Bitcoin ETFs edged into inflows while Ethereum redemptions continued. Stablecoin supply fell $1.377 billion over the week, and Binance BTC open interest stabilized.
Crypto
On-Chain: DEX Volume Falls 14.8%; Solana RWA Transfers Rise Over 47%
October 16 DEX volume fell 14.8% to $8.767 billion. Solana's 30-day application revenue reached $163 million, while RWA transfers grew over 47%.
Crypto
Policy Trends: Stablecoin Payments Connect US Card Networks and Hong Kong Dollar Settlement
Marqeta and Coinbase connect stablecoins to card networks; Hong Kong's Finloop and partners complete an HKDAP payment linked to Hong Kong dollar settlement.
Fed Watch
October 17 | Fed: September Import Prices Rise 8.1% Year on Year as Nonfuel Costs Test the Hiking Path
September US import prices rose 8.1% year on year, with monthly nonfuel gains accelerating from June through September. Manufacturing output grew only 0.3% and spare capacity remained; October's meeting focuses on the subsequent rate path.
Middle East
October 17 Iran War Update: Military Links Strait Reopening to U.S. Withdrawal as Oil Flows Fall to 12.6 Million Barrels a Day
Iran's military tied reopening Hormuz to a U.S. exit from the Middle East. Strait oil flows fell to about 12.6 million barrels/day on October 13; a burning tanker was found in a Gulf of Oman “restricted zone,” Aden airport and the government palace were hit, and Saudi Arabia intercepted missiles and drones.
Daily Market Review
October 17 | Global Markets Daily: Nasdaq 100 Falls 2.5% as Import Prices and Oil Hold Back Treasuries
On October 16, concerns over debt-funded, capital-intensive AI expansion triggered a technology selloff. CoreWeave fell nearly 12% and the Nasdaq 100 lost 2.50%. U.S. September import prices rose 8.1% year on year, the most in over four years. Brent's 3.56% rise to $109.69 and a fiscal-year deficit near $2 trillion kept the ten-year Treasury yield at 5.09%, while expectations of a rate-hike pause lowered the two-year yield three basis points to 4.74%.
Oil Markets
October 17 | Oil Focus: Brent Reaches $109.69 as Shipping Disruption and Diesel Drawdowns Lift the Near-Term Premium
Brent rose 3.56% to $109.69 on October 16, with WTI at $99.04. Attacks around Hormuz disrupted Gulf shipping's recovery; Middle Eastern product exports remained below half of prewar levels. U.S. distillate drawdowns and attacks on Russian refineries added to diesel tightness, lifting near-term premiums despite the IEA's forecast of a 2.5-million-barrel-a-day year-on-year decline in fourth-quarter demand.
Crypto
October 16 Crypto Market Review: Bitcoin Closes Higher After Testing 79,800, as Major Tokens Rebound Unevenly
Falling Treasury yields helped Bitcoin regain 82,000 USDT. Five major tokens rose and three fell, leaving the recovery uneven.
Crypto
Fund Flows: US Crypto ETFs Return to Outflows as Binance Bitcoin Positions Grow and Ethereum Positions Shrink
US BTC and ETH ETFs turn negative and stablecoin supply falls $1.8 billion in a week. Binance contract open interest rises 1.37% for BTC and falls 4.95% for ETH.
Crypto
On-chain Update: Daily DEX volume rebounds 8%; Ripple launches perpetual swaps on traditional assets
Daily DEX turnover rose 8% to $9.9 billion, while the seven-day average remained lower. Ripple launched swaps on traditional assets and RLUSD entered a bank's core system.
Crypto
Policy Trends: Australia Consults on Digital Assets and Custody as the US Explores Licensed Use of Public-Chain Technology
The US explores licensed operations using public-chain technology; Australia's ASIC opens consultation on digital asset and custody rules after receiving more than 140 applications.
Fed Watch
October 16 | Federal Reserve: U.S. September PPI Rises 1.3% Month on Month, Keeping Rate-Hike Debate Alive
U.S. September PPI rose a seasonally adjusted 1.3% month on month and 6.3% year on year. Surging energy prices and sticky underlying costs strengthen the case for restrictive Fed policy. The San Francisco Fed sees inflation returning to 2% only at end-2028; markets await Chair Warsh's latest discussion and October's policy meeting for guidance on further increases.
Middle East
October 16 | Iran Update: Tanker Burns in Gulf of Oman; Houthi Attacks on Riyadh Airport Delay EU Summit
More than 40 merchant ships crossed Hormuz in a day, but a tanker caught fire in the Gulf of Oman exclusion zone and switching off tracking still failed to prevent attacks. Houthi strikes on Aden's presidential palace and 20 attacks this month on Riyadh airport forced an EU-GCC summit and international sporting event to be postponed. US-Iran mediation links safe strait passage to lifting the port blockade and nuclear arrangements, while the US prepares new strike options.
Daily Market Review
October 16 | Global Markets Daily: Treasuries Rally Despite PPI as AI Financing Burdens Weigh on Tech
On October 15, 2026, US September PPI rose 1.3% month on month, its largest increase in over four years, yet the 10-year Treasury yield fell nine basis points to 5.10% as attention shifted to high rates' constraints on consumption and leveraged AI firms' debt service. Stocks rotated toward financials, small caps and traditional blue chips; chip selling hit Japan and Korea. A weaker dollar lifted gold 1.86%, while US crude inventory draws and tanker-sanctions expectations split WTI and Brent.
Oil Markets
October 16 | Oil: An 8.6 million-barrel US crude draw lifts WTI; expectations of more shipping capacity weigh on Brent
Hurricane-related production cuts and lower imports drove an 8.6 million-barrel weekly fall in US commercial crude stocks, lifting WTI to $96.12/barrel. Expectations that Washington might ease shadow-fleet sanctions weighed on Brent at $105.62. IEA data show a 113 million-barrel September draw in global onshore stocks and tight diesel supply, setting near-term inventory support against longer-term demand contraction.
AI Watch
OpenAI and Anthropic revenue expectations reset: 2027 will test returns on vast AI computing investment
Can AI revenue growth cover enormous computing commitments? A look at end-user payments, cost structures and cash recovery ahead of the 2027 test.
Crypto
October 15 Crypto Market Review: U.S. Inflation Rebound Interrupts the Rally; Bitcoin Falls and Ether Underperforms
U.S. September CPI inflation rose to 3.7%, interrupting the rebound. BTC fell 1.79% and ETH 3.06%; ETH/BTC declined further as corporate financing to buy coins came under scrutiny.
Crypto
Fund Flows: $200 Million ETF Inflow Falls Short of Monthly Withdrawals; Ether Open Interest Rises 4.65%
A $200 million ETF inflow failed to offset withdrawals this month, while stablecoin supply fell $1.754 billion over seven days. Binance ETH open interest rose 4.65% and funding turned negative.
Crypto
On-Chain: Base Volume Nears Ethereum; Native BTC Proposed as Aave Collateral
Daily DEX volume reached $9.423 billion as Base approached Ethereum. Stellar launched Chainlink services; Babylon proposed bringing native BTC to Aave.
Crypto
Policy Trends: Standard Chartered Opens Bitcoin and Ether Trading in the UAE as Dogecoin Product BWOW Exits on Schedule
Standard Chartered received approval to offer BTC and ETH trading within UAE clients' bank accounts; Bitwise's Dogecoin product BWOW reached its scheduled final trading day.
Fed Watch
October 15 | Federal Reserve: U.S. September CPI reaches 3.7%; October hike pricing nears 50%
September CPI rose to 3.7% year on year and core CPI to 2.6%, lifting October hike pricing to nearly 50%. The Beige Book shows oil costs spreading through supply chains as subdued consumption limits price increases; PPI and import prices are the next tests.
Middle East
October 15 | Iran Update: Intense Hormuz Ship Attacks Sink a Cargo Vessel; Saudi Arabia Intercepts Missile Aimed at Riyadh
Iranian officials say attack tactics and timing have changed, with plans to expand operations into the Gulf of Oman. Twenty-three attacks were recorded in and around Hormuz in October, and a container ship sank. Saudi Arabia intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh, while the UN proposed a fertilizer shipping corridor through Hormuz.
Daily Market Review
October 15 Global Markets Review: U.S. CPI Reaches 3.7%, and a Long-Bond Rebound Fails to Ease Pressure on Tech Stocks and Credit
U.S. September CPI rose a stronger-than-expected 3.7% year on year. The Treasury curve flattened, but a late long-bond rally could not mask simultaneous AI equity and credit weakness. Onshore oil stocks fell sharply, nearly 30% of G7 and Spanish debt matures within a year, and strong Chinese exports coexist with weak household credit, tightening cross-asset scrutiny of cash flows and credit quality.
Oil Markets
October 15 Oil Report: Recovering Gulf Exports Fail to Ease Prompt Tightness as September Onshore Stocks Fall 113 Million Barrels
The IEA says Gulf crude exports rose by 4.4 million barrels/day in September, but much of the increase became oil in transit. Global onshore stocks still fell 113 million barrels to their lowest since at least 2016; shipping attacks and shrinking diesel exports kept prompt supply tight.
Research
US September CPI in Depth: Gasoline Lifts Annual Inflation to 3.7%, While Core Prices Rise a Stronger-Than-Expected 0.3%
US September headline CPI rose 3.7% year on year, with gasoline contributing more than half the monthly increase. Core CPI rose 0.3% month on month and 2.6% year on year, both above expectations. Renewed core-goods inflation and faster monthly shelter inflation weakened the disinflation cushion, lifting October rate-hike odds above 40%; core PCE and employment still constrain the policy timetable.
Crypto
October 14 Crypto Market Review: Spot buying lifts BTC above 83,000, but weekly divergence persists
Spot demand helped BTC reclaim 83,000 as major coins rebounded, though weekly divergence persisted. Attention turns to September US CPI.
Crypto
Fund Flows: Spot ETFs Lose Another $150 Million as Stablecoin Supply Contracts Over the Week
U.S. spot ETFs saw daily net outflows of $150 million, stablecoin supply fell $1.5 billion over the week, and Binance futures open interest edged lower in coin terms.
Crypto
On-Chain Developments: DEX Volume Rebounds to $9.8 Billion as Cross-Border Payments and Lending Improve Capital Efficiency
DEX volume rebounds to $9.8 billion on October 13; Base TVL edges above Solana, while lending and payment models explore more efficient use of funds.
Crypto
Policy Trends: CFTC advances retail-leverage consultation; Interactive Brokers launches Ethereum staking
The CFTC's advance notice advances consultation on leveraged retail crypto transactions, while Interactive Brokers opens Ethereum staking to eligible clients.
Fed Watch
October 14 | Federal Reserve: Officials Favor Further Hikes This Year, Watching Inflation Spillovers from Energy and AI Investment
Recent Fed comments keep modest further tightening this year in the baseline. Williams leans toward one more hike and Collins supports additional increases, with attention on whether energy and AI-investment price pressures spread. Discount-rate minutes confirm sectoral differences in labor and costs. September CPI and PPI will test spillovers, while the 2027 policy stance remains dependent on data and the balance of risks.
Middle East
October 14 | Iran Update: Aramco Office Burns After Attack; Two Ships Hit in Hormuz and Riyadh Airport Remains Closed
The past 24 hours shifted the conflict toward energy hubs and transport arteries. Following Saudi-led strikes on Yemeni fuel facilities, an attack caused a limited fire at an eastern Aramco office. Riyadh airport's closure was extended to the 17th and two merchant ships were hit in Hormuz, increasing pressure on supply chains and humanitarian conditions.
Daily Market Review
October 14 | Global markets daily: Long Treasuries lead gains as earnings and memory competition deepen equity divergence
October 13 brought a mild Treasury bull flattening, strong allocation demand and persistent short-rate constraints. U.S. stocks edged lower amid earnings and memory competition; oil and gold diverged, while long technology bonds drew strong demand and growing long-term supply tested market capacity.
Oil Markets
October 14 | Oil: Russian Diesel Prospects Weigh on Brent as Tight Spot Supply and Restocking Lift WTI and Forwards
October 13 oil trading diverged: expected Russian diesel supply weighed on Brent while a US diesel surge supported WTI. OPEC cut this year's demand-growth forecast again and raised next year's; Saudi output lifted September supply. The 2027 WTI strip set a record for a 12th straight day, supported by tight physical balances, expected inventory draws and shipping premiums.
AI Watch
Anthropic's Report on Strengthening Defenses Against Distillation Attacks Reignites Debate Over Chinese Models
An examination of public evidence on Chinese model distillation and the evidentiary limits of claims that Kimi forwarded sensitive information.
Crypto
October 13 Crypto Market Review: Bitcoin falls 2.3% as major coins retreat on higher turnover
Bitcoin and Ethereum closed lower on rising turnover. Institutional accumulation neared its target, while ETF outflows and inflation data shaped the outlook for demand.
Crypto
Fund Flows: Bitcoin ETFs Lose $679 Million Over the Week
ETF inflows remain limited and the cost of holding leveraged longs has fallen, while spot-market buying still needs to improve.
Crypto
Onchain Developments: Spot Turnover Falls 19%; Lending on New Chains Needs More Liquidity
Spot and derivatives volumes diverge while stablecoin trading concentrates. As USDe moves to a new chain, liquidation liquidity must first be established.
Crypto
Policy Trends: Standard Chartered Launches RLUSD Custody as US Platform Rules Await Detail
Standard Chartered has launched institutional RLUSD custody, while trading-collateral functionality remains pending. Markets are watching the timetable for new US platform rules.
Fed Watch
October 13 | Federal Reserve Focus: Hammack Calls for More Restraint Against AI-Driven Demand, Keeps an Open Mind on an October Hike
Cleveland Fed President Hammack said intensive AI investment and expanding consumption were shifting inflation pressure toward demand and that the economy needed more restraint. She favored smaller, quicker adjustments and remained open to an October hike, while Reuters reported that investors mainly expected a hold. September CPI and the Beige Book were the next tests.
Middle East
October 13 Iran Update: Riyadh Airport Closure Extended, Five Ships Attacked as U.S.–Iran Differences Obstruct Reopening
Riyadh airport's full closure was extended after an attack, with another missile interception that evening and delayed reports of attacks on five merchant ships in and near Hormuz. Washington and Tehran exchanged proposals through mediators but differed over addressing nuclear issues first or restoring shipping security, leaving no workable safety mechanism.
Daily Market Review
October 13 | Global Markets: Tech Weakens, Oil Rises and BlackRock Upgrades Short Treasuries
October 12 markets diverged: the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.71% on semiconductor weakness while the Dow edged higher; oil rose and gold fell. BlackRock upgraded short Treasuries. China will cut the NEV export rebate to 9% from April 2027, accelerate RMB 550 billion of unused debt quota, and reached an interim hybrid-car export framework with Europe.
Oil Markets
October 13 | Oil: Middle East Tanker Attacks Lift Shipping Premium as Brent Closes at $106
Tanker attacks around Hormuz raised geopolitical risk and sent Monday's oil prices higher after an early decline. Brent closed at $106.03 and WTI at $93.27, a spread of about $12.76. Risks to insurance, freight and delivery timing outweighed expected Russian diesel additions and Gulf of Mexico restarts, leaving near-term transport premiums central to price resilience.
Fed Watch
October 13 | Republicans Trail by 8.8 Points in Midterm Polling: What Would a Divided Congress Mean for Fiscal and Financial Policy?
With Republicans under electoral pressure, how would a divided Congress affect fiscal expansion, financial regulation and asset prices?
Crypto
Crypto Market Review, October 12: All Six Tracked Assets Fall, with Ethereum Down Nearly 7%
All six tracked assets declined over the week. Ethereum fell nearly 7% and lagged Bitcoin as macro rate pressures and deleveraging widened divergences.
Crypto
Fund Flows: Spot ETFs Lose $1.22 Billion in a Week; Recovery Remains Fragile After Long Liquidations
Spot ETFs shed $1.22 billion over the week. After more than $1 billion in long liquidations, limited spot buying leaves the recovery fragile.
Crypto
Onchain Developments: Base and Robinhood Transaction Counts Fall as Tokenized Assets Grow
Base and Robinhood transaction counts decline, while RWA and cross-chain settlement advance against the trend. Onchain ecosystems face a test of genuine retention.
Crypto
Policy Trends: Stablecoins Enter Corporate Payments and Mobile Wallets as Institutions Compete for Compliant Settlement Channels
Stablecoins are moving into corporate payments and consumer wallets as institutions compete to build compliant settlement channels.
Fed Watch
October 12 | Fed Weekly: Services prices index rises to 74; most participants favor one more rate increase by year-end
September Fed minutes and Governor Waller reinforce a restrictive stance, with most participants favoring one more hike by year-end while retaining meeting-by-meeting flexibility. The September ISM services prices index reached 74, consumer inflation expectations rose for a second month and borrowing costs constrained durable-goods purchases. Low layoffs provide policy room as markets await September CPI, PPI and the Beige Book.
Middle East
October 12 Iran Weekly Report: Hormuz Flows Fall 40% Under Blockade as Conflict Spillover Suspends Riyadh Flights
During October 5–11, diplomacy continued alongside physical disruption. The U.S. softened zero-enrichment language but kept its blockade, and Trump ruled out strikes before the midterms. Hormuz attacks reduced crude flows to 8.5 million barrels/day, about 40% below prewar levels. Yemen-war spillover hit Saudi airports, caused civilian casualties and prompted international airlines to suspend Riyadh flights.
Daily Market Review
October 12 | Weekly Global Markets: Stocks and Oil Rise, Treasuries Recover Modestly and Credit Diverges
October 5–11 brought modest recovery and deep divergence. Energy and financials lifted the S&P 500 1.15%, while technology capex faced revenue scrutiny. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.24%; auctions were firm but credit split. Supply disruptions lifted Brent 2.42%, gold recovered to $4,216.30, and Asian equities faded from highs as Chinese fiscal and monetary policies supported demand.
Oil Markets
October 12 | Weekly Oil Report: Shipping Disruption Lifts Premiums as Brent Gains 2.4% to $104.72
In the week of October 5-11, Gulf of Mexico offshore shutdowns and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lifted prompt seaborne-delivery premiums. Brent gained 2.4% to $104.72 a barrel and WTI 0.8% to $91.85. U.S. commercial crude stocks fell 3.2 million barrels, while low diesel inventories supported high refinery runs. The EIA raised its Q4 Brent forecast to $105 a barrel. Backwardation continued to reflect prompt delivery and inventory pressures.
Crypto
October 11 Crypto Market Review: Major Tokens Recover on Lower Turnover, but Deeper Order Books Cannot Mask Peripheral Liquidity Discounts
Bitcoin gained 0.43% as turnover fell nearly 40%. Near-market depth improved for major tokens, while liquidity remained uneven beyond them.
Crypto
Capital Flows: Bitcoin ETFs Recover $21.1 Million, but Derivatives Leverage Remains Restrained
Bitcoin ETFs saw a modest $21.1 million inflow, while perpetual open interest in coin terms was broadly flat, signaling a limited and weak funding recovery.
Crypto
On-Chain Developments: DEX Volume Falls to $6.15 Billion as Multichain TVL Recovers but Turnover Weakens
October 10 DEX volume falls to $6.15 billion while multichain TVL recovers and turnover remains under pressure; Robinhood's weekly transaction count drops 20%.
Crypto
Policy Trends: CFTC Advances Event-Contract Rules as Institutions Pursue Derivatives Licenses and Bitcoin Life Insurance
The CFTC is advancing event-contract classification and platforms are applying for licenses. Hong Kong reiterates payment-compliance requirements, while Bitcoin life insurance attracts funding.
Research
What the Data Say: Are New EV Makers Building Cars Too Quickly?
Comparing development cycles, R&D spending and manufacturing models at Chinese and overseas automakers tests the evidence behind claims of rushed vehicle development.
Middle East
October 11 | Iran War Update: Riyadh Airport Shuts After Attack Kills 12, Injures 309; US Weighs Striking Houthis
In the 24 hours through the morning of October 11, Beijing time, an attack on Riyadh's international airport killed 12, injured 309 and halted operations. The US weighed direct strikes on the Houthis. Fighting remained deadlocked around Taiz; Russia conveyed Iranian ceasefire intentions, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed a tanker struck a mine in Hormuz, keeping escalation risks elevated.
Crypto
Crypto's prolonged slump: Aftershocks of record liquidations linger as the value narrative needs rebuilding
ETF inflows have cooled, liquidation damage persists, and moving financial activity on-chain does not directly support native-token valuations.
Crypto
An Equity Holder's Perspective on Why ETH Investors Struggle to Capture Blockchain Industry Growth
Understanding the asset's economic substance and the mechanisms transmitting cash flow is essential to assessing long-term investment value.
Fed Watch
October 10 | Fed: Inflation expectations reach their highest since May as weaker consumption and a governor's investigation complicate policy
The University of Michigan's October survey shows inflation expectations at their highest since May, while a sharp fall in current conditions highlights pressure on immediate buying conditions. With Governor Cook also facing an external investigation, the Fed must balance inflation control against economic weakness before its late-October meeting.
Middle East
October 10 | Iran Update: US rules out direct strikes before elections; tanker attacked off UAE; Russia cleared to supply 300,000 tonnes of diesel
As of the morning of October 10, political restraint coexisted with spreading frontline risks in the Middle East. Trump ruled out direct strikes on Iran before the US elections while maintaining the blockade. Tehran reviewed Washington's response to its strait-opening proposal and reiterated its refusal to abandon enrichment. A loaded tanker caught fire off the UAE, an attack on Riyadh airport prompted flight suspensions, and Washington temporarily eased sanctions to bring in 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel.
Daily Market Review
October 10 | Global Markets Daily: AI Optimism Lifts U.S. Stocks; Inflation Expectations Push Up Short Treasury Yields
On October 9, 2026, AI commercialization prospects lifted U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.59%. Michigan survey inflation expectations rose for a second month, driving a short-end-led rise in Treasury yields and higher real rates. Dip buying lifted COMEX gold 1.52% back above $4,220, while oil erased early losses to finish slightly higher.
Oil Markets
October 10 | Oil: US-Iran Talks Ease Geopolitical Fears as Gulf Shutdowns Exceed 70%
Oil edged higher October 9 as diplomatic relief met hurricane disruption. Gulf of Mexico crude shutdowns reached 1.4588 million barrels/day, 71.51% of expected output. Refining capacity at direct risk fell below 500,000 barrels/day, stabilizing processing demand. Brent's roughly $3 nearby premium highlights tight supply; Gulf restarts and actual Hormuz logistics are key.
Fed Watch
October 9 | Federal Reserve: Officials Favor Further Hikes but Retain Timing Flexibility as Resilient Employment Awaits September CPI
Waller and Musalem signaled further tightening to bring inflation to target while playing down the urgency of a consecutive October hike. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000, but continuing claims edged higher, leaving reemployment worth watching. September CPI and the Beige Book will help determine the policy pace.
Middle East
October 9 | Iran conflict: U.S. delays pre-election strikes but keeps blockade; alternative routes cushion collapsing Hormuz traffic
The U.S. rules out direct strikes before November 3 but retains its blockade and adds sanctions. Hormuz commodity traffic shrinks as alternative exports sustain supply; a Houthi-claimed Riyadh airport attack and damaged airliner raise aviation disruption risks.
Daily Market Review
October 9 | Global markets daily: Strong long-Treasury auction, technology pressure, and gains in oil and gold
October 8 long-bond auction demand lowered yields while hike expectations restrained the front end. AI monetization and financing scrutiny hit technology; Gulf oil shutdowns lifted crude and lower real yields supported gold.
Oil Markets
October 9 | Oil: Gulf Shutdowns Above 60% Lift Nearby Premiums as WTI Gains 3.3%
October 8 oil rebounded over 3% as nearly 63% of Gulf output shut and Middle Eastern shipping risks persisted. US comments on Iran trimmed intraday gains, but tight deliverable supply reinforced backwardation. Against a 3.2-million-barrel EIA draw and faster IEA delivery of 100 million reserve barrels, physical deliverability remained the pricing anchor.
AI Watch
Four Tech Giants Spend $294.8 Billion in Six Months: US AI Investment's Real Growth Contribution and Weak Links
Rapid cash-capex growth at four technology giants is diluted by imports and rising prices. Narrower cash-flow buffers intensify scrutiny of returns and financing chains.
Fed Watch
October 8 | Federal Reserve: September Minutes Favor Another Hike This Year as Near-Term Inflation Expectations Rebound to 3.9%
September Fed minutes show most participants leaning toward one more hike this year, while near-term inflation expectations rise to 3.9%. Slower August consumer-credit growth challenges the case for continuously strengthening demand; weaker post-meeting inflation and employment data leave markets expecting an October hold, separating the tightening bias from its timing.
Middle East
October 8 Iran War Update: Attacks on Two Saudi Airports Kill Three and Injure 36; Gulf Tanker Hit as Nuclear Talks Remain Divided
Successive attacks on two Saudi civilian airports and Gulf shipping caused casualties, while an Aden-bound passenger aircraft diverted. Fighting for coastal high ground near Bab el-Mandeb remained contested. U.S.–Iran differences over nuclear-talk preconditions persisted as Putin offered mediation assistance.
Daily Market Review
October 8 | Global markets daily: Steeper Treasury curve leaves financing pressure unresolved; stocks and gold fall
On October 7 the 2-year yield eased to 4.77% while long yields rose. Small caps, homebuilders and gold underperformed. After-hours AI-infrastructure and consumer earnings, plus Samsung's preliminary results, highlighted profit divergence amid high funding costs.
Oil Markets
October 8 | Oil Focus: IEA Accelerates Delivery of 100 Million Reserve Barrels, Prioritizing Diesel as Oil Prices Diverge
Oil prices diverged amid volatility on October 7. IEA members backed rapid completion of previously pledged releases of about 100 million barrels, prioritizing diesel where possible. Official U.S. crude stocks fell unexpectedly, but products did not decline as anticipated. Modestly recovering Middle Eastern exports, high prompt premiums, Gulf of Mexico storm evacuations and a stronger dollar intensified the tug-of-war.
Fed Watch
October 7 Fed Focus: August Trade Deficit Widens to $105.6 Billion, with Domestic Resilience Offering Little Case for Easing
The U.S. August goods-and-services deficit widened to $105.6 billion. Capital goods and industrial inputs drove real imports up 4.1%, pointing to resilient spending. With policy rates at 3.75%–4%, a trade drag alone offers little case for easing; near-term attention turns to September FOMC minutes and officials' remarks.
Middle East
October 7 | Iran conflict: Ship attack injures 12; oil flows recover above 80% but chokepoints remain under pressure
A Hormuz ship attack injures 12 as Middle East oil flows exceed 80% of prewar levels. Saudi airports are damaged; Reuters says U.S. bombers leave Britain over suspected drone-plot concerns, while indirect U.S.-Iran talks continue.
Daily Market Review
October 7 | Global Financial Markets Daily: S&P Hits Record and Treasuries Recover, but Demand and Oil Still Constrain Easing Expectations
On October 6, 2026, Treasury yields fell across maturities, the S&P 500 hit a record close and gold strengthened. Small caps declined and oil recovered a steep intraday loss. A wider US trade deficit, higher capital-goods imports and faster private hiring showed resilient demand. Corporate guidance supported large caps, while inflation compensation and elevated oil still limited easing expectations.
Oil Markets
October 7 | Oil: EIA Raises Q4 Forecast to $105 as High Freight Rates and Inventory Draws Delay Near-Term Relief
The EIA raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent spot-price forecast to $105 a barrel. Despite returning Middle Eastern production, global inventories are still expected to fall 700,000 barrels a day in Q4. With Gulf-to-China VLCC rates at $1.2 million daily and U.S. East Coast diesel stocks 32% below average, better exports have yet to materially lower refiners' landed costs, leaving near-term supply tight.
Research
Why the U.S. Economy Remains Strong in 2026: Investment Expansion, Recovering Consumption and Uneven Transmission of Headwinds
An analysis of U.S. investment, consumption and growth resilience through PMI surveys and GDP components.
Fed Watch
October 6 | Federal Reserve: September Services Cost Index Reaches 74 as Divergent Growth Deepens the Rate-Hike Debate
September U.S. services surveys diverged: ISM slowed to 54.9 while S&P Global activity rose to 58.8. Both showed higher input and delivery pressures. ISM prices reached 74.0, the highest since July 2022, undermining the view that slower growth alone will ease inflation. Institutions differ over an October hike; attention turns to September minutes, jobless claims and Fed comments.
Middle East
October 6 | Iran conflict: Coalition sends 100 aircraft over Yemen; Turkey and Pakistan begin Saudi support; tanker attacked
The Saudi-led coalition joins Yemen Dawn with 100 aircraft. Turkey and Pakistan begin defense support, with Pakistan confirming reconnaissance. Hormuz sees a tanker fire and a forced turnback as U.S. Treasury warns of unannounced secondary sanctions.
Daily Market Review
October 6 | Global Financial Markets Daily: S&P Gains 0.66% as Long-Term Bonds Remain Under Pressure
On October 5, the S&P 500 rose 0.66%, oil fell about 2% and long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise. Earnings expectations and takeover news supported equities, while service-sector cost pressures and financing needs constrained long bonds. France's budget dispute and Brazil's election results drove national-market divergence; Asia's next focus was orders and policy implementation.
Oil Markets
October 6 | Oil: Returning Middle Eastern crude pushes prices down around 2%; high freight costs and diesel draws slow the recovery
On October 5, recovering Middle Eastern exports, lower Saudi official prices for Asia and the G7 reserve-release plan drove oil down around 2%. High freight rates could offset lower loading prices, while US distillate stocks kept falling. Restored crude flows had yet to remove downstream supply bottlenecks.
Fed Watch
October 5 | Federal Reserve Weekly: October Hike Odds Fall to 17%; Payrolls Cool but Cost Pressures Persist
During September 28–October 4, 2026, Fed communication shifted toward policy lags and October hike odds fell to about 17%. August core PCE inflation of 3.0% and only 29,000 September payroll additions support a pause, but resilient consumption and a manufacturing input-price index of 77.9 leave further hikes this year possible. September minutes, Governor Waller's remarks and September CPI are the next tests.
Middle East
October 5 | Iran Weekly: Crude flows recover to 13.5 million barrels a day, while disagreements and regional spillovers persist
During September 28–October 4, key-route flows partly recovered while surrounding conflict spread. US–Iran disputes over implementation order persisted, Washington expanded sanctions and US reinforcements remained en route. Hormuz crude flows recovered to 13.5 million barrels/day, near prewar levels, but refined-product shipping remained severely constrained. Tanker attacks and escalating fighting in Yemen underscored the fragility of commercial passage.
Daily Market Review
October 5 Global Markets Weekly: Rate-Hike Fears Ease but Long Bonds Struggle, as Tech Earnings Sustain Divergence
During September 28–October 4, 2026, near-term Fed hike fears eased while long-term borrowing costs rose, taking the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.28%. Technology guidance and shareholder returns supported a divided equity market, gold and oil fell, and investors increasingly tested actual earnings and cash flows.
Oil Markets
October 5 | Oil Weekly: Recovering Middle East Exports Weigh on Crude, but Lower Refinery Runs and Fuel Drawdowns Limit the Decline
During September 28–October 4, renewed loadings at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port lifted Middle East exports and eased disruption fears. Lower US refinery runs and falling fuel inventories nevertheless left diesel and other distillates tight. WTI fell 1.41% to $91.11 and Brent 1.98% to $102.25. The G7 announced a coordinated 100-million-barrel reserve release with an initial diesel focus, shifting attention to whether better crude transport can ease end-user fuel shortages.
Middle East
October 4 Iran Update: Houthis Claim Riyadh Refinery Attack as Conflict Spreads Alongside Limited Contacts
A fire broke out at Saudi Aramco's Riyadh refining facilities and the Houthis claimed an attack. Yemeni government forces announced strikes in Sanaa and Saada and mobilization began. U.S. security officials discussed Iran at Camp David while maintaining military pressure. The UAE released Iranian detainees and Iraq planned to restore Iran flights, showing limited practical channels remained open.
Fed Watch
October 3 | Federal Reserve: Just 29,000 September Jobs and Sharp Revisions Raise the Prospect of an October Rate-Hike Pause
September payrolls rose only 29,000, earlier months were revised down a net 60,000 and monthly wage growth slowed to 0.1%, reducing urgency for consecutive increases. October hike odds fell to about 17%. Stable unemployment and hours still argue against a pivot to cuts; attention turns to September minutes, Waller's speech and September CPI.
Middle East
October 3 | Iran War Update: U.S. Sends Carrier Group to the Middle East as Another Tanker Attack Hits Hormuz and G7 Releases Reserves
The U.S. sent a carrier strike group and amphibious ready group toward the Middle East as Iran assessed contingency retaliation if attacked again. Another merchant vessel was struck near Hormuz, while the G7 launched a 100-million-barrel reserve release. Iran's proposal offered to reopen the strait and end hostilities within seven days if accepted, but sequencing disagreements with Washington remained unresolved.
Daily Market Review
October 3 | Global Markets: Softer Payrolls Lift Stocks, but Rising Real Rates Restrain Treasuries and Gold
September payroll growth of just 29,000 eased tightening fears and lifted US stocks, but rising real rates pushed Treasury yields higher and gold lower. G7 reserve releases and rejection of a US diesel export ban eased supply risks as oil diverged. Elevated French sovereign spreads highlighted still-tight credit conditions.
Oil Markets
October 3 | Oil Focus: G7's 100-Million-Barrel Release Targets Diesel as Crude Builds and Fuel Drawdowns Deepen Divergence
The G7 launched a 100-million-barrel oil-reserve release focused on diesel, but U.S. crude builds and accelerating product drawdowns deepened the upstream-downstream mismatch. High physical premiums signaled prompt tightness. Combined Middle Eastern transport corridors recovered to 75% of prewar flows, while OPEC+ capacity-baseline assessments were delayed. Near-term divergence still depended on effective replenishment of downstream fuels.
Research
Core PCE Revised Down to 3.0%: Statistical Recalibration Reduces Tightening Risk but Does Not Signal a Policy Pivot
Statistical recalibration lowers July core PCE inflation to 3.0%. This reduces the risk of excessive tightening, but resilient demand and inflation mean it is not a policy-pivot signal.
Research
Why U.S. stocks still rise as Treasury yields climb: Earnings expectations versus real rates
Third-quarter 2026 equities rose alongside Treasury yields as earnings upgrades offset valuation pressure. The balance faces tests in profit quality, financing structure and market breadth.
Research
US September Payroll Growth Drops to 29,000: Why Did Treasury Yields Rebound 12 Basis Points From Their Intraday Low?
US payroll gains slowed to 29,000 without uncontrolled layoffs. Real rates and tightening expectations supported a 12-basis-point Treasury-yield rebound from the intraday low.
Fed Watch
October 2 | Federal Reserve: Logan Calls for at Least 50 Basis Points of Hikes as Input-Price Index Reaches 77.9
Jefferson says judging the next policy move requires more time, while Logan argues rates still need at least 50 basis points of increases. September's ISM manufacturing input-price index jumped to 77.9. Waiting for data does not mean tightening is over; inflation expectations and the actual restraint from broad financial conditions will shape the path.
Middle East
October 2 | Iran Conflict Update: US Dispatches Carrier Forces and Expands Industrial Sanctions; Tanker Attacked in Hormuz
Over the past 24 hours, US carrier and amphibious ready groups head to the Middle East as Treasury sanctions expand to Iranian auto and rail manufacturers and settlement networks. A tanker attack and fire threaten Hormuz shipping, while core disputes obstruct talks and regional risks build.
Daily Market Review
October 2 | Daily Global Financial Markets Review: Short Treasuries Lead Gains as Cost Pressures Persist
On October 1, Treasury yields reversed early rises, with the two-year down 10 basis points. Patient Fed comments eased hike fears and stocks edged higher, but manufacturing input prices and oil rose while credit and earnings diverged.
Oil Markets
October 2 | Oil: Brent Breaks Above $102 as Recovering Gulf Exports Fail to Ease Fuel Tightness
Oil rose in volatile trading on October 1, with front-month Brent closing at $102.31 a barrel. Gulf crude exports recovered to average levels, but U.S. refinery utilization fell to 92.5%, distillate stocks were 14% below their five-year seasonal average and products continued to draw. Spot premiums and geopolitical uncertainty supported near-term prices.
Fed Watch
October 1 | Federal Reserve Focus: August Core PCE at 3.0%; Strong Consumption Constrains Pivot Expectations
August headline US PCE inflation is a below-forecast 3.4% year on year and core is 3.0%, but monthly inflation accelerates while real consumption grows 0.6%. Governor Cook reaffirms the inflation fight; September payrolls and CPI will shape the next policy decision.
Middle East
October 1 | Iran Update: U.S. Proposal Divides the Sides Over Implementation Order; Gulf Exports Reach 21.8 Million Barrels a Day
Iran's cabinet received the U.S. response on September 30. Officials say the unpublished proposal's main sticking point is the sequence of implementation. Despite fresh attacks on Hormuz shipping, alternative routes and U.S.-protected night passages lifted Gulf crude and product exports to 21.8 million barrels daily, at higher cost and longer transit times. U.S. forces also completed their planned Iraq withdrawal under the existing U.S.-Iraq agreement, while regional defense cooperation continued to evolve.
Daily Market Review
October 1 | Daily Global Markets Review: Softer Core PCE Fails to Lift Long Bonds; Technology Alone Supports U.S. Stocks
On September 30, core PCE rose a softer-than-expected 0.2% in August, but strong spending and corporate-bond supply pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.29%. Most equity sectors fell while Nasdaq 100 gained 0.23% on computing orders. Oil rose, real rates constrained gold, and China's manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.1% alongside input-cost pressure.
Oil Markets
October 1 | Oil: Gulf Exports Recover but US Fuel Stocks Draw Down as Prices End the Month Higher
Oil rose on September 30. Saudi pipeline restoration and recovering Gulf exports ease upstream transport bottlenecks, but lower US refinery runs deepen gasoline and diesel draws. With no US–Iran negotiating breakthrough, tight fuel supply supports high-range trading; attention turns to WTI prompt premiums, refinery activity and actual OPEC+ output recovery.
Research
August PCE in Depth: Revised Readings Cool, but Underlying Pressure Remains Elevated
Downward revisions to US inflation ease pressure to raise rates. Delayed medical repricing, higher transportation costs and supported service demand nevertheless make a rapid return to target difficult. This article examines services inflation and rate paths under four scenarios.
Fed Watch
September 30 | Federal Reserve Focus: Williams Sees a Possible Further Hike This Year; August PCE Will Test the Case for Tightening
Fed officials retain the tightening option. On September 29, Williams's conditional personal baseline envisages one more hike this year but allows time to observe; Barr questions the certainty of inflation returning to target. Confidence falls to 81.9 while August JOLTS is broadly unchanged. August PCE will be central to assessing demand and policy.
Middle East
September 30 | Iran Conflict Update: Ceasefire Plan Awaits US Reply; Procurement Sanctions and a Reported Vessel Attack
Iran's seven-point ceasefire and Hormuz reopening proposal awaits a formal US reply. Treasury sanctions 10 procurement-linked individuals and entities, unofficial quotes exceed 2.5 million rials per dollar, and UKMTO relays an unconfirmed vessel attack. Nine Yemeni medical facilities or assets are affected, with a $7 million WHO funding gap.
Daily Market Review
September 30 | Global Markets Daily: Ten-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5.26%; Oil Falls More Than 3.5%
Weak U.S. employment and confidence data lowered the two-year yield to 4.89% on September 29, while supply pressures helped lift the ten-year to 5.26%, widening the spread to 37 basis points. Stocks diverged narrowly, with chips and memory lifting the Nasdaq 100 by 0.21%. Vendor continuous-futures closes showed WTI down 3.56% at $89.30 and gold up 1.06% at $4,212.70. China expanded structural support and first-home mortgage interest subsidies, while markets awaited its manufacturing PMI and Micron earnings.
Oil Markets
September 30 | Oil: Yanbu Loading and U.S. Reserve Tender Send Prices Down About 3%, but Near-Term Supply Stays Tight
Oil fell about 3% on September 29 as Saudi Yanbu loading resumed and the U.S. tendered up to 40 million SPR barrels. Pipeline recovery takes time and reserve delivery is scheduled for November–December. Brent's intraday front spread of $7.48 shows persistent near-term concern despite lower outright prices.
Fed Watch
September 29 | Federal Reserve Focus: Cook Warns AI Investment May Lift Near-Term Inflation as Productivity Gains Lag Spillovers
Fed Governor Cook warned that the AI investment boom could compete for energy and labor and spread price pressures in the near term, while wealth effects appeared to support consumption. Longer-term productivity gains may not offset immediate risks. Dallas Fed survey evidence of active production and rising materials costs continued to support restraint, with markets watching the August PCE report.
Research
Why Are Yields Still Rising After the Fed's Rate Increase?
Why long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued rising after Fed tightening: resilient private capital spending, persistent government borrowing and a repricing of long-bond risk premiums worked together. The article examines three potential paths to macroeconomic rebalancing.
Middle East
September 29 | Iran Update: Trump Denies Sanctions Concessions as Indirect Talks Stall over Nuclear Steps and Sequencing
Trump denied granting Iran sanctions relief or unfreezing funds as indirect mediation remained blocked on nuclear progress and implementation sequence. Reports pointed to a limited waiver for Najaf flights, while the rial hit a record low. Prolonged Qatari LNG disruption increased Europe's need for alternative winter supply.
Daily Market Review
September 29 | Global Financial Markets Daily: Higher Treasury Yields Hit Stocks and Gold; Nvidia's Buyback Cannot Halt the Selloff
On September 28, 2026, Treasury yields rose across the curve, the S&P 500 fell 0.77%, gold dropped 3.81% and oil surrendered most early gains. Nvidia's $150 billion buyback authorization and U.S.-China tariff concessions on $60 billion of goods failed to offset macro tightening pressure. China's central bank injected over RMB 1 trillion through reverse repos to offset quarter-end liquidity needs.
Oil Markets
September 29 | Oil: Recovering Exports Limit Gains as the Brent-WTI Spread Widens to $12.68
Recovering Middle Eastern exports caused oil to surrender most of its gains, though a supply shortfall still supported nearby prices. Prospective U.S. diesel export restrictions increased the risk of refinery run cuts, widening Brent's premium over WTI to $12.68 a barrel.
Fed Watch
September 28 | Fed Weekly: Stronger Demand Lifts Hiking Expectations as Officials Debate Employment Costs
US composite PMI reached its highest since July 2021 as demand and costs strengthened. Williams and Paulson signaled further tightening; Hammack gave no rate path. Musalem and Goolsbee differed over whether disinflation necessarily costs jobs.
Middle East
September 28 | Iran Weekly: US Rejects Seven-Day Plan; Multiple Fronts Still Constrain Strait Reopening
US rejection of Iran's seven-day plan sets back hopes of near-term reopening and ceasefire arrangements, although mediation continues. Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline resumes, while the blockade, Yemen fighting and aviation sanctions continue to constrain regional logistics.
Daily Market Review
September 28 | Global Financial Markets Weekly Review: Technology Gains as Long-Term Yields Rise
Strong U.S. demand data lifted the ten-year Treasury yield 16 basis points to 5.17%, raising real financing costs. Nasdaq 100 gained 3.25%, while small caps and financials fell. Brent's nearby premium widened and gold lost 2.34%.
Oil Markets
September 28 | Weekly Oil Review: Brent-WTI Gap Reaches $12 as Diesel-Restriction Expectations Weigh on U.S. Crude
During September 21–27, Brent continuous futures edged up 0.43% to $104.32 a barrel, while WTI fell 7.87% to $92.41 amid the contract roll and prospective diesel export restrictions. Its discount briefly exceeded $12. Saudi pipeline restoration and Red Sea attacks sent Brent settlements between $99.25 and $106.60. U.S. policy debate raised refinery-cut fears, while constrained interregional logistics deepened market fragmentation.
Middle East
September 27 | Iran Update: Trump Publicly Rejects Seven-Day Plan as Hormuz Reopening Talks Remain Deadlocked
Trump publicly rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire and shipping plan while saying he still wanted a deal; Tehran awaited a formal reply. Pezeshkian offered talks on inspections without retreating on enrichment, while cross-border fighting continued, leaving reopening negotiations stalled.
Fed Watch
September 26 | Fed: Inflation Expectations Rebound Despite Weaker Sentiment; Rate Path Awaits Key Data
Final September Michigan data showed weaker sentiment alongside rising inflation expectations. Slightly better durable-goods buying assessments mainly reflected fears of future price increases and still require spending-data confirmation. After raising rates to 3.75%–4.00% in September, the Fed faces competing considerations; the path depends on August PCE and September payrolls.
Middle East
September 26 Iran War Update: Conditional Seven-Day Reopening Proposal Fails to Break Nuclear Deadlock as Yanbu Sounds Alarms
Iran proposed a seven-day navigation plan conditional on lifting the blockade and a ceasefire, while reaffirming core nuclear demands. The U.S. maritime blockade continued; Houthi attacks triggered alerts in Yanbu and other Saudi hubs, prompting multinational defense coordination as Gulf and Red Sea tensions escalated.
Daily Market Review
September 26 | Global Financial Markets Daily: US Equities Rise as Long Bonds Remain Under Pressure
Oil retreated on September 25, supporting US equities, lower short Treasury yields and a weaker dollar as COMEX gold rebounded. Yet the 30-year yield rose to 5.49% and one-year Michigan inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%, showing persistent long-term financing and inflation constraints. Core capital-goods orders showed investment resilience, while crude backwardation remained pronounced.
Oil Markets
September 26 Oil Focus: U.S.–Iran Talk Hopes Trigger a Pullback, but Steep Backwardation Signals Tight Near-Term Delivery
Oil fell September 25 on U.S.–Iran negotiation hopes, yet the $6.88 November–December Brent spread retained tight near-term pricing. A same-month Brent–WTI gap of $11.91 highlighted shipping concerns and possible U.S. diesel-export restrictions. EIA data combined crude builds with product draws; sustained Hormuz logistics and the October 4 OPEC+ meeting remained key tests.
Fed Watch
September 25 Fed Report: Officials Keep a 2026 Rate Hike in Play as Low Layoffs Support Tightening
Williams and Paulson sent hawkish signals and kept another 2026 rate hike possible. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000, showing limited layoffs and little urgency to ease. The threshold and pace for further hikes will be tested by month-end PCE and payroll data.
Middle East
September 25 Iran Update: Tehran Sets Terms for Hormuz Reopening as Saudi Missile Interceptions Highlight Red Sea Risks
Iran offered to reopen Hormuz in about a week if oil sanctions were lifted and fighting stopped across fronts, while retaining passage controls. The Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting six missiles aimed toward Taif and Yanbu, and France promised defensive support. A U.S. Senate war-powers resolution failed 49–50, while Iranian media reported new aviation restrictions.
Daily Market Review
September 25 | Global Financial Markets Daily: Long Yields and Oil Rise as U.S. Stocks Finish Mixed and Flat
On September 24, 2026, long Treasury yields and oil rose as U.S. stocks finished narrowly mixed. Low jobless claims and a weak 7-year auction lifted the 10-year yield 7 basis points to 5.18%. Saudi-led missile interceptions raised geopolitical fears, taking Brent above $106 while gold edged lower. Heavyweights obscured broad sector weakness and AI delivery bottlenecks hit hardware. The U.S.-China trade truce was extended and China's central bank emphasized moderate easing.
Oil Markets
September 25 | Oil Focus: Yanbu Loadings Remain Halted and Diesel Disruptions Help Brent Outperform
Oil extends gains on September 24, led by Brent. Saudi pipeline flows rise but Yanbu tanker loadings remain halted, limiting actual exports. New York US–Iran talks pare intraday gains, while diverging US crude and distillate stocks and soundings on voluntary diesel-export limits complicate refining margins and crude demand.
Fed Watch
September 24 | Fed: September PMI hits its highest since July 2021, strengthening rate-hike expectations
The flash September US composite PMI rose to 58.4, its highest since July 2021, while input-cost inflation reached its highest since October 2022. Strong demand renewed concern over cost pass-through and persistent inflation. Governor Barr said upside inflation risks had increased and further policy adjustment might be needed, without specifying timing or size. Attention turns to August PCE and other data to assess pass-through to final prices.
Middle East
September 24 Iran War Update: U.S.–Iran Differences Persist as a Commercial Ship Burns and Financial Restrictions Tighten
Indirect UN General Assembly contacts resumed, but differences over Hormuz control and security remained large and no common nuclear text emerged. A commercial ship was attacked, U.S. blockade diversions reached 115, and tighter financial and flight restrictions plus Houthi Red Sea warnings kept regional supply chains under pressure.
Daily Market Review
September 24 | Global Financial Markets Daily: Treasury Yields Climb and Stocks Come Under Pressure
On September 23, 2026, the preliminary U.S. composite PMI reached a more-than-five-year high. Greater rate-hike expectations lifted Treasury yields across the curve, led by the 5-year. Major U.S. indices fell; energy rose with oil and dollar strength pressured gold. SoftBank completed more than $10 billion of multicurrency financing, while Asian central banks worked to smooth quarter-end funding volatility.
Oil Markets
September 24 Oil Focus: Brent Returns Above $100 as Diesel Shortages Lift Overseas Risk Premiums
Oil rebounded September 23, with Brent above $100 and its WTI spread widening to $10.92. Reports of possible U.S. diesel-export restrictions drove European cracks to records. EIA data showed lower refinery utilization, crude builds and product draws. The rebound depended on shipments, export policy and refining margins as Saudi pipeline recovery competed with Hormuz risks.
Fed Watch
September 23 | Federal Reserve Focus: Barkin Warns of Business Cost Pass-Through; Demand Resilience in Focus After Hike
Richmond Fed President Barkin sees inflation risks above employment risks and warns that entrenched price increases and cost pass-through may prevent inflation from subsiding naturally. Regional manufacturing shows weaker orders and higher costs. With routine liquidity tools distinct from the policy stance, demand cooling and August PCE will test the tightening path.
Middle East
September 23 | Iran Update: US Reports Three Hours of UNGA Contacts as Signals on Reopening Hormuz Conflict
Washington disclosed about three hours of US–Iran contacts during the UN General Assembly, without identifying the Iranian delegation's level, and maintained military threats. Conflicting Iranian reopening statements and proposed transit fines complicated Hormuz prospects. Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline resumed at low flow, while regional spillover and humanitarian pressures persisted.
Daily Market Review
September 23 | Global Markets Daily: Oil and Short Rates Ease, but Long Rates Stay Firm as AI Winners and Losers Diverge
On September 22, lower oil and short-term Treasury yields brought marginal relief, but long-term benchmarks stayed firm. Meta's AI assistant supported computing hardware while threatening intermediary platforms; expected technology debt issuance widened AI credit premiums. Manufacturing orders and hiring expectations weakened, oil fell while gold held up, and offshore funding and global supply chains remained constrained by rates and tariffs.
Oil Markets
September 23 | Oil: Saudi Pipeline Restarts Slowly, with Deep Nearby Backwardation and Product Drawdowns
Oil extended losses September 22: November Brent fell below $100 and expiring October WTI settled at $94.59. Rolling contracts created a technical gap in continuous quotes, while $3.36 backwardation signaled prompt tightness. Saudi pipeline trials and Gulf loading improved export prospects, but conditional Iranian comments and Trump's post-election timing kept shipping uncertain. API crude builds and fuel draws await EIA confirmation amid low global stocks and IEA's forecast 2.5-million-barrel-a-day demand decline.
AI Watch
Is This Productivity Guaranteed Ripe?
Generative AI clearly improves efficiency in individual tasks. Turning local speed into economy-wide productivity still depends on real workflow redesign and on cost savings reaching consumers and workers.
Fed Watch
September 22 | Federal Reserve Focus: Goolsbee Warns Persistent Supply Shocks May Make Job Losses Unavoidable in the Inflation Fight
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warns that repeated, prolonged supply shocks may force sacrifices in growth and employment to curb inflation. Resilient services and localized AI infrastructure pressure coexist with slower activity; leading labor indicators and PCE data will test the policy path.
Middle East
September 22 Iran War Update: U.S. Warns of Secondary Aviation Sanctions as Two Commercial Ships Are Damaged in Hormuz
Pezeshkian planned to attend the UN General Assembly on September 22, without a scheduled substantive U.S.–Iran meeting. Washington warned that third-party services to Iranian airlines could risk dollar-system exclusion from September 23. Two ships were damaged in Hormuz, one in a delayed report. Yemen fighting persisted as Britain planned limited aerial-refueling support for Saudi Arabia.
Daily Market Review
September 22 | Global Financial Markets Daily Review: Technology and Long Bonds Rally, but Short-Term Financing Remains Constrained
On September 21, 2026, US technology leaders lift stocks and lower real yields support longer Treasuries. Higher bill-auction discount rates and a stronger dollar show persistent short-term funding constraints. Saudi oil exports pressure crude, while AI investment drives SoftBank's multibillion-dollar bond sale.
Oil Markets
September 22 | Oil: Prompt Scarcity Premium Narrows, but High Freight Limits Relief in Landed Costs
Saudi exports return to Gulf ports and Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers expand as U.S.–Iran diplomacy lifts hopes, sending Brent lower for a fourth session and narrowing WTI spreads. Shipping risks and extreme freight persist, so futures declines need not translate proportionally into refiners' landed costs. Low global stocks leave the next move dependent on physical delivery and rebuilding inventories.
Fed Watch
September 21 | Fed Weekly: Unanimous 25-Basis-Point Hike Restarts Tightening, Extending High Rates into 2027
The September FOMC unanimously raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. Strong August core retail sales gave the Fed room to prioritize price stability. The SEP delayed inflation's return to target until 2029 and lifted year-end 2026 and 2027 median rates to 4.1%. The medians imply higher for longer, but the dots are neither a collective commitment nor probabilities; further action remains data-dependent.
Middle East
September 21 | Iran Weekly: Hormuz Reopening Hinges on Blockade Bargaining as Saudi Pipeline Repairs Remain Uncertain
During September 14–20, Gulf security remained deadlocked. Reopening talks were postponed, reportedly at Saudi Arabia's request, while Iran tied navigation to a comprehensive ceasefire and lifting the blockade. Houthi claims of strikes on Riyadh and Yanbu added uncertainty over Saudi pipeline repairs. Rising US war costs drew congressional dispute, and hardline US–Iran rhetoric kept regional risk premiums high.
Daily Market Review
September 21 | Global Markets Weekly Review: Rate Hike Lifts Real Yields as AI Orders Support Technology Recovery
During September 14–20, a 25-basis-point Fed increase and strong nominal retail sales flattened the Treasury curve and raised real discount rates, pressuring cyclicals and small caps. Power and chip orders helped technology lead. Oil surrendered geopolitical premium, gold rose on short covering, and a post-close sanctions law introduced implementation uncertainty for the next opening.
Oil Markets
September 21 | Oil Weekly: Transport disruptions lift physical premiums; transshipment relief leaves near-term tightness unresolved
Oil rallied and then retreated during September 14–20, ending almost flat. Disruption to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export corridor intensified fears of a deliverable-supply shortfall and lifted early-week crude prices; diverted orders also supported WTI. Offshore Oman transshipment and pipeline-restart plans eased panic and erased the gains. Deep nearby backwardation and middle-distillate pressure nevertheless showed persistent physical scarcity, leaving actual deliveries and demand destruction central to the outlook.
Middle East
September 20 Iran War Update: Tehran Conveys Conditions for Ending the War as a Riyadh Oil Tank Burns
Iran conveyed three ceasefire demands through Qatar and maintained its nuclear policy, awaiting a U.S. response. Saudi Arabia said it thwarted Houthi attacks, while a tank near Riyadh airport burned for an unclear reason and flights resumed after disruption. U.S. and Iranian accounts of Hormuz escorts differed.
Fed Watch
September 19 | Federal Reserve: August Manufacturing Output Turns Negative, Revealing Restraint but Leaving the Anti-Inflation Path Intact
After September's Fed increase, August manufacturing output fell 0.3%, ending seven monthly gains. Softer equipment and construction add growth constraints, but industrial cooling does not establish weaker services inflation. Low utilization shows no broad capacity shortage. August PCE and final GDP estimates will guide the growth-inflation assessment.
Middle East
September 19 | Iran Update: Tanker Attacked in Hormuz as Aramco Notifies Some European Refineries of an October Supply Halt
A fresh tanker attack in Hormuz and overlapping US–Iran navigation controls raised shipping risk. Yemen's fighting spread toward the Red Sea, and pipeline damage led Aramco to notify some European refineries of an October crude halt. France proposed G7 talks on reserve releases, but maritime risk premiums stayed high without substantive security improvement.
Daily Market Review
September 19 | Global Financial Markets Daily Review: Treasury Yields Reach 5%; Chip Rebound Supports US Stocks
On September 18, 2026, the Treasury's comparable closing 10-year yield reaches 5.01%, with larger short-end increases flattening the curve. Semiconductors help US benchmarks eke out gains despite most stocks falling. Saudi pipeline repairs ease oil-supply fears, gold edges up but faces high real rates, and China's fiscal and high-tech investment data show structural bright spots.
Oil Markets
September 19 | Oil Focus: Saudi Transshipment Eases Supply Fears, but High Prompt Premiums and Diesel Pressure Persist
Oil fell for a third day on September 18. Saudi Arabia arranged sales and shipments of up to 60 million barrels through alternative routes, while sources estimated full pipeline restoration could take 6-8 weeks. WTI's adjacent-month premium stayed above $2 a barrel and U.S. diesel retail prices reached a record. A flat dollar offered little direction; attention turned to actual cargo deliveries and logistics recovery.
Fed Watch
September 18 | Federal Reserve: Low Layoffs and Broader Manufacturing Price Increases Limit a Rapid Shift to Easing
Initial claims fell to 196,000, indicating restrained layoffs. Philadelphia's September survey showed continued manufacturing expansion and the share raising selling prices rising to 33%. With employment intact and cost pass-through spreading, rapid easing remained unlikely; August PCE and September payrolls would test the national picture.
Research
Constraints on the Fed's 2027 Rate Path: Inflation, Oil and AI Investment
One more hike this year followed by high rates next year is a working baseline consistent with some institutions and the Fed's median dots. It requires slowly easing inflation, gradually improving Middle Eastern energy supply and AI investment that does not materially worsen macro imbalances. Rapid easing faces constraints, but policy is not settled; renewed inflation and term-premium shocks remain risks.
Middle East
September 18 | Iran conflict: U.S. targets crypto toll payments; Saudi backup pipeline damaged
Washington plans Gulf consultations and sanctions a crypto network allegedly settling Hormuz tolls. Saudi bypass-pipeline damage and Red Sea risks complicate exports, while satellite analysis shows facility reinforcement.
Daily Market Review
September 18 | Global Markets Daily: Oil and Treasury yields retreat as technology leads US stocks higher
On September 17, 2026, Saudi supply arrangements eased immediate fears and lowered oil prices, while Treasury yields shifted down by about 7 basis points across maturities. Expectations of large AI supply-chain orders helped the S&P 500 rise 1.14% and Nasdaq 100 gain 1.73%. Low jobless claims and stronger manufacturing price indices nevertheless pointed to persistent inflation. High TIPS real yields and mortgage rates constrained the economy, limiting market breadth, while gold slipped slightly.
Oil Markets
September 18 | Oil Focus: Saudi Transshipment Eases Supply Fears, but Diesel Shortages Limit the Decline
Oil retreated on September 17 as Saudi offshore Oman transfers and hopes of a partial East-West pipeline restart eased export-disruption fears. Hormuz constraints persisted, however, and slower U.S. crude drawdowns coexisted with very low European and U.S. diesel stocks. High downstream cracks encouraged refinery purchasing, limiting oil's downside.
Crypto
Why the Long-Awaited CLARITY Act Keeps Stalling
Stablecoin yields, regulatory boundaries and conflicts of interest in public office intersect. Why has the CLARITY Act repeatedly approached passage without securing enough support?
Fed Watch
September 17 | Federal Reserve: 25-basis-point hike delivered; dot plot raises year-end rate
The Fed unanimously raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. Higher growth and inflation forecasts and nearly 90% of officials favoring another hike point to sustained restraint through 2027; August PCE on September 30 is the next test.
Middle East
September 17 Iran Update: Houthis Claim Yanbu Strike, Threatening an Alternative Route as Repair and Shipping Recovery Remain Uncertain
The Houthis claimed an attack on Aramco facilities in Yanbu, threatening the outlet of Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline. Industry sources and U.S. officials differed over repair timing, and one day's higher Hormuz throughput did not establish stable commercial recovery. Washington engaged the Houthis while tightening Iran-related financial controls.
Daily Market Review
September 17 | Global Markets Daily: Fed hike flattens the yield curve; stocks diverge and oil tumbles
The Fed unanimously raised rates 25 basis points, while stronger-than-expected August core retail sales helped lift the 2-year Treasury yield to 4.74% and flatten the curve. US indices diverged: chips held up while financials and transport fell. Oil dropped around 3%, gold weakened under higher real yields, and HKMA expanded offshore renminbi liquidity arrangements.
Oil Markets
September 17 | Oil: Saudi Offshore Transfers Temper Gains, but Weak Shipping and Diesel Shortages Persist
More Saudi offshore-transfer allocations near Oman and a smaller US crude draw prompted a pullback from high oil prices. Hormuz traffic remained very low, Gulf diesel exports had plunged and global stocks were depleted. Rebalancing depends on actual alternative-route deliveries and pipeline repairs.
Fed Watch
September 16 Fed Report: New York Manufacturing Slows as Pricing Pressure Rises
Ahead of the Fed decision, New York manufacturing expansion slowed while input costs and selling-price pressures intensified. A 25-basis-point hike was strongly expected; the decision, rate projections and chair's remarks would help reveal how much more tightening was needed.
Middle East
September 16 | Iran War Update: Saudi Exports Disrupted as Pipeline Restart Estimates Differ
The Houthis claim restrictions on Saudi vessels through Bab el-Mandeb. Saudi pipeline restart estimates differ and some late-September crude cargoes have been canceled. Iran maintains negotiating preconditions as US war costs keep rising.
Daily Market Review
September 16 Global Markets Daily Review: Oil Surges and the Ten-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5%
WTI rose nearly 4% and the ten-year Treasury yield reached 5.00%, while U.S. stocks and gold fell. U.S. manufacturing orders cooled as prices rose; Chinese industrial growth accelerated, but consumption and investment remained weak.
Oil Markets
September 16 | Oil: Yanbu loadings disrupted as European buyers pay more for replacement crude
Yanbu disruption pushes European refiners toward alternatives, with Forties at $136.75 a barrel. Falling global stocks intensify prompt pressure; pipeline and loading recovery will determine the supply premium's duration.
Research
The Cost of Repairing US Public Finances: A 3% Deficit Target and the Repricing of Treasury Yields
Interest costs absorb rising fiscal revenue. What would it take to deliver a 3% deficit target, and how would Treasury yields be repriced?
Fed Watch
September 15 | Fed: Hike Expectations Strengthen, but the Subsequent Path Remains Divided
A Reuters poll found 86 economists expecting a 25-basis-point Fed hike this week, a marked shift from the prior week. Further tightening remains disputed; projections and conditions for subsequent hikes are central.
Middle East
September 15 | Iran Conflict Update: Houthis Strike Saudi Arabia Again; Gulf Talks Postponed
Houthis announce renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia, pressuring the East–West pipeline and Red Sea route. Gulf talks are postponed and Trump signals openness to contact, but navigation and nuclear-inspection disputes remain.
Daily Market Review
September 15 Global Markets Review: Oil Rises as Chip Stocks Lead Declines
Oil-supply risks lifted crude while a stronger dollar weighed on gold. The Treasury curve flattened slightly and high rates constrained financing. Calls for slower AI development hurt chips while software rallied; Chinese financial data showed divergent household and business borrowing demand.
Oil Markets
September 15 | Oil: Saudi pipeline halted—how long can inventories last?
Yanbu stocks may cover only five to seven export days against three to five weeks of repairs. Diplomacy trims oil gains, but the outlook depends on restoring flows before inventories run down and keeping export routes open.
Research
Bessent's 3% Deficit Target: What Fiscal Reform Would Allow Treasury Yields to Fall?
Interest is consuming America's revenue gains. Cutting the deficit to 3% requires nearly $1 trillion of annual adjustment and will shape the conditions for lower Treasury yields.
Fed Watch
September 14 | Federal Reserve Weekly: Hike Expectations Rise, but Inflation Persistence Remains Unsettled
September 7–13 PPI and CPI reports increased rate-hike expectations as energy and some core prices rose. Annual core inflation still fell and medium-term household expectations remained stable. The September meeting must assess persistence alongside employment and demand.
Middle East
September 14 | Iran weekly: Conflict spreads to the Red Sea, pressuring alternative energy routes
September 7–13 fighting spread from Hormuz to the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and Saudi pipelines. Diplomatic contacts increased, but safe navigation and restored facilities remained to be delivered.
Daily Market Review
September 14 | Weekly Global Markets: Energy Inflation Lifts Rates as Resilient Earnings Drive Divergence
September 7–13 energy gains reinforced hike expectations, lifted short/intermediate Treasury yields and left US equities lower. Stable credit spreads and growing AI orders offered selective support as supply constraints met slower demand.
Oil Markets
September 14 | Oil Weekly: Supply Disruption Returns Prices to $100 as Cooler Demand Limits Gains
Brent and WTI gained 8.65% and 9.37% in September 7–13. Blocked Gulf exports and alternative routes, inventory draws and tight diesel lifted prompt prices, while lower demand forecasts constrained gains. The tests ahead are whether passage talks restore vessel flows and refinery supply fills product shortages.
Research
US August PPI and CPI: Why Rate-Hike Odds and the Two-Year Treasury Yield Surged
August US disinflation stalled, lifting September hike expectations and the two-year Treasury yield by 20 basis points in two days. Price increases had yet to broaden generally, and institutions still differed on further hikes and the timing of cuts. Oil, midterm elections and PCE revisions would continue shaping policy assessments.
Fed Watch
September 13 | Federal Reserve: Rising inflation expectations add pressure for a September hike
Firmer monthly core CPI and higher household inflation expectations strengthen September hike bets. Concentrated price shocks and weaker consumer confidence leave the case for consecutive hikes uncertain.
Middle East
September 13 Iran Update: Hormuz Reopening Remains Conditional as Fighting Reaches Saudi Arabia
Iran said its understanding with Oman did not mean immediate Hormuz reopening, while U.S. air protection was limited to set hours. The Houthis claimed a Saudi base attack as diplomacy continued, leaving shipping and surrounding fronts at risk.
Daily Market Review
September 13 | Global Markets Daily: U.S. Stocks Rebound, but Funding Costs Keep Rising
U.S. stocks rebounded on September 11, supported by in-line inflation, lower oil and growing AI orders, but short Treasury yields and real rates continued to rise. Purchasing power, corporate financing and energy supply remained constrained. The speed at which orders become cash returns will affect the durability of the recovery.
Oil Markets
September 13 | Oil: Reopening Hopes Lower Prices, but Supply Buffers Remain Thin
Shipping-talk headlines lowered oil, but Middle East transport constraints persisted, global stocks kept falling and diesel remained tight. High prices were curbing demand; the next move depended on actual reopening, alternative exports and product restocking.
Fed Watch
September 12 Fed Focus: Renewed Inflation Strengthens the Case for a Rate Increase
U.S. August price growth and household inflation expectations rose, strengthening the case for a Fed increase the following week. Falling annual core inflation and weaker sentiment still left subsequent tightening uncertain.
Middle East
September 12 | Iran War Update: Red Sea Route Under Pressure as Gulf States Prepare Shipping Talks
Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline shut after an attack, while Houthi advances to Bab el-Mandeb put the Red Sea alternative under pressure. Iran plans Oman talks on safe routes, with passage still requiring U.S.–Iran and regional coordination.
Daily Market Review
September 12 Global Markets Daily Review: Oil Cools and U.S. Stocks Rebound
Lower oil and strong technology earnings lifted U.S. stocks, but core monthly inflation exceeded expectations and short Treasury yields kept rising. Tight energy supply, fiscal funding needs and corporate capital expenditure continued constraining the recovery.
Oil Markets
September 12 | Oil Focus: Talks Reduce Risk Premiums, but Tight Supply Has Yet to Ease
Shipping talks pushed oil lower, but Hormuz traffic, alternative export routes and inventory depletion still showed tight supply. High prices were eroding demand. Further medium-term declines depended on actual transport and production recovery.
Fed Watch
September 11 | Fed: Rate-hike expectations strengthen ahead of the core inflation test
August US PPI rebounded as energy and transport costs increased, strengthening expectations for a hike next week. Underlying prices remained mixed, making forthcoming core CPI central to assessing cost pass-through and inflation persistence.
Middle East
September 11 | Iran Update: Red Sea Front Advances, Adding Pressure on Shipping Routes
The Houthis reportedly advanced after taking Mocha, while more ship attacks were reported near Oman. Hormuz traffic remained low and Saudi crude exports through the Red Sea faced new security pressure. Regional mediation had yet to bring substantive relief.
Daily Market Review
September 11 | Global markets daily: Oil surge pressures stocks and bonds
Surging oil revived inflation concerns, lifting Treasury yields and hurting technology and small caps. Underlying service prices remained mixed; Oracle's cloud growth supported earnings expectations ahead of August CPI.
Oil Markets
September 11 | Oil: Shipping Disruption Lifts Spot Prices, While Weaker Demand Limits the Rally
Constrained Gulf transport and competition for alternative crude raise near-term supply costs, with recovering Yanbu exports providing some relief. Weak U.S. demand indicators and lower global consumption forecasts mean the durability of $100 oil still depends on actual delivery and consumption.
Fed Watch
September 10 Fed Focus: Hike Expectations Build as Inflation Data Shape the Premeeting Assessment
The Reuters poll share expecting a September hold fell from 90% to about 70%, with more economists expecting a hike this year. August producer and consumer prices before the meeting would test whether the Fed could keep waiting.
Middle East
September 10 | Iran War Update: Merchant Ships Repeatedly Attacked as Nuclear Dispute Returns to the Security Council
Repeated tanker and merchant-vessel attacks extend shipping risk to ports and anchorages. The IAEA again refers Iran's nonproliferation issue to the Security Council, while ceasefire terms and a negotiating timetable remain unclear.
Daily Market Review
September 10 | Global Financial Markets Daily Review: Oil Tops $100 as Stocks and Bonds Come Under Pressure
Brent returns above $100, Treasury yields rise across the curve and US stock indices fall. Energy and high rates squeeze demand, while a strong Treasury auction and technology launches provide selective support. US inflation releases are key before next week's rate meeting.
Oil Markets
September 10 | Oil: Renewed transport disruption lifts Brent to $102
Hormuz flows fell again and alternative export routes also faced risks, taking Brent to $102.09. After months of global stock depletion, actual loading and delivery became central to near-term pricing. Sustained high prices would depend on the pace of transport recovery and inventory replenishment.
Fed Watch
September 9 | Fed: Inflation Expectations Stabilize as Employment Confidence Weakens
The New York Fed survey showed slightly lower medium-term inflation expectations and weaker employment and repayment confidence. Living-cost pressure persisted; this week's PPI and CPI would shape the Fed's balance of inflation and growth risks.
AI Watch
We Can Move into the Future, but We Struggle to Bring the Past Along
Established companies can see the future. What they find difficult is letting go of the revenue, status and order built around their old businesses.
Middle East
September 9 | Iran Conflict Update: Tankers and Saudi Facilities Attacked, Raising Energy Transport Risks
US forces say they struck five Iranian tankers, while southern Saudi energy facilities are attacked. Vessel and facility risks compound obstacles to export recovery. Diplomacy continues without a newly announced ceasefire.
Daily Market Review
September 9 | Global Markets Daily: Higher Oil Pressures Stocks and Bonds
Oil and Treasury yields rose as major US indices declined. Weaker employment confidence and greater debt-service pressure complicated growth risks while inflation limited policy room. Energy and technology were relatively resilient, with earnings continuing to diverge.
Oil Markets
September 9 Oil Report: Prices Approach $100 as Export Recovery Meets New Obstacles
Brent approached $100 a barrel as alternative export routes faced security pressure. Restart and transport constraints limited near-term supply recovery, while high fuel costs' drag on demand capped the upside.
Fed Watch
September 8 | Federal Reserve Focus: Strong Jobs Ease Growth Concerns; Premeeting Inflation Data Will Shape Policy
August jobs strongly exceeded expectations, reducing growth concerns about tighter policy, but wage growth did not yet provide sufficient grounds for an immediate hike. September 10 PPI and September 11 CPI would be crucial before the September 15-16 meeting. The blackout left markets without new official remarks to calibrate policy expectations.
Middle East
September 8 | Iran Update: Plans for Tighter Strait Controls as Shipping and Domestic Energy Pressures Persist
Following weekend US-Iran attacks on tankers and warships, no new ship-to-ship fighting was reported in the past 24 hours, but Hormuz restrictions persisted. Iran previewed a maritime restricted zone from the US blockade line through Hormuz into the Gulf, and the Revolutionary Guard navy called Khasab the endpoint of safe passage for unauthorized ships. Iran's Foreign Ministry also issued a statement.
Oil Markets
September 8 | Oil: Brent Rises to $97.31 as Shipping Disruption and Tight Fuel Stocks Support Prompt Prices
During Labor Day, Brent settled at $97.31 a barrel as supply constraints dominated. Weekend US–Iran tanker strikes reduced Hormuz traffic to its lowest since May, and OPEC+ kept October output policy unchanged. With transport bottlenecks unresolved and US fuel stocks low, markets still face a near-term supply premium.
Fed Watch
September 7 | Fed: Blackout begins, with two inflation reports in focus before the meeting
The Fed has entered its blackout. PPI on September 10 and CPI on September 11 will provide new price signals before the September 15–16 meeting.
Middle East
September 7 | Iran War Update: Maritime Conflict Continues as Economic Blockade Pressure Deepens
Naval battle claims remain disputed as Iran forms an economic-war command. Exports, inventories and shipping restrictions intertwine, deepening economic pressure.
Daily Market Review
September 7 | Global Markets: Payrolls Reinforce Hike Expectations and Flatten the Treasury Curve
Payrolls strengthen September hike expectations and flatten Treasuries again. Jobs, inflation and energy costs will jointly shape premeeting judgments.
Research
Repeated Payroll Revisions: Limits of US Employment Statistics and Paths to Reform
The statistical roots of repeated payroll revisions, institutional barriers to integrating real-time data, and the scope and limits of Warsh's reforms.
Oil Markets
September 7 | Oil Focus: WTI Gains 9.7% for the Week as Prompt Supply Tightness Remains Central
WTI rose about 9.7% in a week. Tight prompt crude and product supply remained central; inventories, transit volumes and transport costs would test the pace of recovery.
Research
If the Fed Hikes in September, Where Does the Rate Path Go Next?
September's hike is not fully priced at that meeting, but cash Treasuries may already reflect later tightening. Yield decomposition, the SEP and path scenarios explain potential repricing after a hike.
Middle East
September 6 | Iran War Update: U.S. Disables Three Iranian Tankers as Reciprocal Hormuz Tanker Conflict Escalates
The past 24 hours brought a substantive military escalation in the Persian Gulf and Hormuz. After the White House downplayed fighting, Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. carrier and destroyer formation. The U.S. said it evaded the attack and struck three Iranian tankers, permanently disabling two and destroying one.
Fed Watch
September 5 | Federal Reserve: Payrolls Beat Expectations; Inflation Will Decide September's Hike Debate
The Fed enters its pre-meeting blackout on September 5, Eastern time, with rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Stronger-than-expected August payrolls eased fears of a labor-market stall, leaving the September 15–16 meeting to choose between holding rates and a 25-basis-point hike, with inflation the key test.
Middle East
September 5 | Iran War Update: White House Downplays Conflict but Signals Pickaxe Mountain Strike; Sanctions Target Third Parties as Oil Posts Its Best Week in Two Months
There was no large-scale direct Gulf clash in the past 24 hours, but Washington sent conflicting signals: it minimized the six-month conflict while publicly suggesting a strike on the underground Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility near Natanz. Economic pressure shifted toward third-party channels, while oil and U.S. diesel prices remained elevated.
Daily Market Review
September 5 | Global markets daily: Strong payrolls reverse Waller's dovish signal; September hike odds return near 60%
On September 4, rate expectations completed a two-day reversal. Waller's conditional dovish remarks had cut September hike odds to 50% and lifted stocks, bonds and gold; August payroll growth of 162,000, almost three times forecasts, then changed the picture.
Oil Markets
September 5 | Oil: Weekly Gains Near 10% as Extreme Spot Premiums Meet Rate-Hike Headwinds
Oil consolidated at elevated levels on September 4 after successive sharp gains. Official settlements were $91.48 for October WTI and $96.28 for November Brent, producing weekly gains of about 9.7% and 7.6%. Exceptional nearby scarcity premiums and shipping costs confronted stronger U.S. rate-hike expectations.
Fed Watch
September 4 | Fed: Waller Opens the Door to Holding Rates and Giving Disinflation Time
On September 3 Eastern time, Waller said continued disinflation would favor a September hold, while hot inflation could warrant a hike. Rates have stayed at 3.50%–3.75% since last December; July's 9:3 hold included three regional presidents favoring a hike. Awaiting further data…
Middle East
September 4 | Iran Conflict Enters a Second Night: Tehran Targets Gulf US Bases as Accounts Shift
In the 24 hours through September 4 morning, Beijing time, attention shifted to Iran's second night of retaliation. No new US action was publicly reported. Kuwait again intercepted missiles and drones Thursday; Iranian state television confirmed ongoing strikes…
Daily Market Review
September 4 | Global Financial Markets Review: Waller's Conditional Openness to a Pause Returns September Hike Odds to Even
On September 3, 2026, markets focused on whether the Fed would hike on September 15–16. Waller offered a clear conditional view: if the next two weeks continued July's disinflation, he favored holding to give disinflation a chance and waiting another meeting.
Oil Markets
September 4 | Oil: US–Iran fighting intensifies but gains slow—why does the deferred curve resist pricing a shipping shutdown?
Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG trade and is among oil prices' most sensitive waterways. On September 3, US–Iran fighting reached its greatest intensity since July, but oil gained only moderately: October WTI settled at $91.79/barrel, up 0.86%.
Fed Watch
September 3 Fed Focus: Beige Book and Williams Align, Leaving September's Hike Decision Open
On September 2, the Beige Book described modest growth, balanced employment and sticky prices, while New York Fed President Williams neither endorsed nor ruled out a September hike. Markets retained roughly 60%–70% odds ahead of payrolls and CPI, awaiting the September 16 decision.
Research
Gulf Crude Exports Are Recovering. Why Are Diesel and Jet Fuel Still So Expensive?
As Gulf exports recover, refinery bottlenecks, returning demand and electric-vehicle substitution will jointly shape oil prices.
Middle East
September 3 Middle East Update: Iranian Retaliation Spreads Across Gulf States, Wedding Casualty Counts Differ and Hormuz Traffic Falls to Single Digits
Over the 24 hours through the morning of September 3, Beijing time, attention shifted from another U.S. strike to Iran's retaliation. Washington had announced completion about an hour and a half before the review window began; overnight, Iran extended retaliation beyond Jordan toward Bahrain.
Daily Market Review
September 3 | Global Markets Review: Treasuries Consolidate at High Yields as a Yen Surge Reprices Carry Trades
On September 2, Treasury yields paused after several days of increases, while softer ADP jobs and balanced Fed communication reduced September hike odds from roughly 70% intraday to 62%–64%. U.S. equities and gold recovered, and a sharp yen rally added a new variable for carry trades and global liquidity.
Oil Markets
September 3 Oil Report: Gains Slow Despite Renewed U.S.–Iran Exchanges as Markets Decline to Price a Complete Supply Cutoff
On September 2, U.S.–Iran fighting resumed: U.S. forces struck southern Iran, which retaliated against U.S. facilities with missiles and drones and vowed tighter Hormuz controls. Yet oil gained only modestly: WTI closed at $91.01 (+0.9%) and Brent at $95.63.
Fed Watch
September 2 | Federal Reserve: Two Softer Data Releases Have Little Effect as September Hike Odds Hold Near Two-Thirds
Both major US data releases on September 1 missed consensus. Fed Governor Barr signaled decisive hikes if inflation failed to fall, while the G20 statement emphasized central-bank independence and price stability. September hike pricing remained high as markets focused on oil and hawkish Fed signals.
Middle East
September 2 | Second US strike expands to maritime and minelaying assets; Iran fires toward Jordan again as oil jumps above $94
Over the past 24 hours, US strikes on Revolutionary Guard targets expanded across air defenses, radar, maritime assets and minelaying capabilities. Iran announced missile launches toward Jordan and vowed devastating retaliation. Crude futures rose above $94/barrel. Trump warned that the largest strike was still ahead while meeting refiners at the White House to discuss lowering oil prices.
Daily Market Review
September 2 | Global Markets Review: Oil surges 5% as geopolitical risk shifts decisively into inflation and rate-hike pricing
On September 1, 2026, softer data, sticky prices, hawkish Fed communication and higher oil converged. September hike odds reached around two-thirds and Treasury yields rose for a fifth session. A 4 basis-point rise in 10-year breakevens shifted the driver of nominal yields from real rates to inflation compensation.
Oil Markets
September 2 | Oil: Strikes Reach a Strait-Bypass Export Hub for the First Time; Both Benchmarks Jump Over 5% Out of Their Range
On September 1, the U.S. launched its largest strikes on Iran in a month, reaching the southern coastal bypass-export area around Jask. Two VLCC attacks and a tanker mine fire added pressure as oil broke out of its nearly month-long range.
Fed Watch
September 1 | Federal Reserve: Warsh's G20 Debut Says Growth Is Also a Choice as September Hike Odds Reach Two-Thirds
On August 31, 2026 US Eastern time, Fed Chair Warsh made his first multilateral appearance since taking office, opening the G20 finance ministers and central-bank governors meeting alongside Treasury Secretary Bessent. He extended his Jackson Hole statement that inflation is a choice to growth, while September hike pricing rose sharply.
Middle East
September 1 | U.S. and Iran Resume Direct Fire After More Than a Month; U.S. Strikes Larak Mine-Laying Sites as Oil Jumps Nearly 3%
After a brief lull in a six-month war, U.S. strikes hit two rocket positions on Larak Island, the first Iranian targets attacked since July 29. Iran retaliated against U.S. targets in Jordan and the UAE, activating regional air defenses, on Monday, August 31.
Daily Market Review
September 1 | Global Markets: Oil Returns Above $90—Why Are US Stocks Resilient?
On August 31, 2026, renewed US-Iran fighting overlapped with hawkish repricing after Jackson Hole. Markets traded the geopolitics–oil–hikes chain in a measured way: the 2-year Treasury held 4.34%, the 10-year rose 2 basis points to 4.75%, and the 30-year rose 3 to 5.25%…
Research
Payrolls and CPI Preview: Two Hurdles before the Fed's September Decision
A September hike remains conditional: payrolls first test whether the Fed has room to act, and CPI then determines whether it needs to.
Oil Markets
September 1 Oil Focus: Renewed U.S.–Iran Fighting Lifts Oil Nearly 3%, While Ample Crude Masks Tight Shipping and Products
On Monday, August 31, oil opened September trading with a nearly 3% jump. October WTI settled at $85.76 a barrel, up $2.36 or 2.83% from August 28; November Brent settled at $90.49, up $2.39 or 2.71%.
AI Watch
Is Unitree's R&D really too low? Exceptional output and full-stack limits behind an 8.53% ratio
A comprehensive assessment of Unitree's R&D spending and efficiency through capitalization accounting, financial presentation, the global product landscape, domestic and overseas R&D data, team structure and competitive moats.
Research
Warsh Rewrites the Fed's Reaction Function: No Promise to Hike, but a Higher Bar for Standing Pat
Warsh made no commitment to a September hike. By fixing the 2% target, prioritizing prices and downplaying forward guidance, he redefined the evidence the Fed would need to leave rates unchanged.
Fed Watch
August 30 Fed Report: Warsh Sets an Inflation Hurdle at Jackson Hole as September Hike Odds Return to Even
Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on August 28 offered no conventional forward guidance. He required inflation to move clearly and sufficiently quickly toward 2%, or the Fed would have work to do, lifting September hike bets from about one-third toward even odds.
Middle East
August 30 | Middle East Update: An Unusual Frontline Lull, Eroding Hormuz Leverage and an Open Tehran Split over Ending the War
Public reporting on Iran fell unusually quiet over the past 24 hours: no new airstrikes, missile interceptions or maritime escalation, and live conflict updates had added no entries for about 45 hours. After almost a summer of fighting, the silence itself was unsettling. Only a week earlier, Hormuz shipping diplomacy and economic bargaining had remained active.
Daily Market Review
August 30 | Global Markets: September Hike Odds Exceed 50% as Short Treasury Yields Jump
On August 28, 2026, Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote made September policy a data question. Hike pricing rose from about 35% to 55%–58%, exceeding hold odds for the first time since late July, as 2-year Treasury yields surged…
Oil Markets
August 30 | Oil: Three-Week Rally Ends as Scarcity Shifts to Refined Products
WTI and Brent edged lower August 28, ending three rising weeks. Gasoline gained a third day to a three-month high, diesel cracks neared records and Russia extended its diesel export ban. Refined products have become the focus of scarcity pricing.
Research
Rebuilding Expectations Management: Warsh Redraws the Boundary Between Central Bank and Market
Rates emerge from the economy and markets. Warsh seeks to withdraw the Fed's day-to-day management of their future path and refocus it on the nominal anchor, current short-term policy and crisis boundaries.
AI Watch
Computing Bills Reach the Public Markets: Anthropic and OpenAI Face a Commercial Divide and a Valuation Test
Computing expenditure is exceeding private markets' capacity. Anthropic and OpenAI approach listing with sharply different revenue structures, while Hong Kong-listed MiniMax and Zhipu have already offered two pricing experiments that provide reference points for this cohort's valuation.
Fed Watch
August 28 | Fed: Jackson Hole opens with hawkish voices, but September hike odds remain near one-third
Jackson Hole opened August 27 with intensive Fed commentary focused on whether 3.50%–3.75% is restrictive enough and whether to act in September. Markets priced a hike at around one-third; clearer guidance awaited Chair Warsh's keynote several hours after the cutoff.
Middle East
August 28 | Tanker Attack and a Temporary Hormuz Passage Coexist: Mediation Reaches the Top, but Talks Remain Blocked
Over the past 24 hours, a tanker hit by an unknown projectile caught fire and all aboard were rescued, while Iran and Oman advanced a temporary joint passage. Diplomats discuss minesweeping as ships remain exposed. Qatar's prime minister takes mediation to Iran's president and speaker; the White…
Daily Market Review
August 28 | Global Markets Review: Four Fed Presidents Turn Hawkish, but Treasuries Respond With Just a One-Basis-Point Rise
On August 27, the opening day of Jackson Hole, four regional Fed presidents delivered unusually concentrated hawkish comments. Treasury yields rose just one basis point across maturities, while September-hike pricing declined. Separate drivers were Washington's rejection of a return to the June memorandum framework and Nvidia-led technology strength.
Oil Markets
August 28 Oil Focus: A Deep Intraday V-Rebound Ends the Losing Streak as Physical Shortages Underpin Prices
Oil's losing streak ended August 27. October WTI settled at $83.53, up $1.30 or about 1.58% from $82.23, ending four declines. October Brent settled at $89.70, higher than the previous $87.84.
Fed Watch
August 27 | Fed Watch: Two Months of Flat Core PCE Leave September Hike Question to Jackson Hole
The inflation report repeatedly moving September hike expectations arrives August 26 US Eastern time. July core PCE stays at 3.3% year on year for a second month, while monthly growth rises from 0.1% to 0.2%. It does not settle September's decision; attention shifts to the imminent…
Middle East
August 27 | Iran War Update: Hormuz Corridor Talks Turn to Implementation as Oil Falls for a Third Day
Iran and Oman's proposed temporary shipping corridor moves from paper to implementation disputes. The Revolutionary Guards claim passage shares and revenues are agreed while accusing the US of delay; the deputy foreign minister details closure of the southern route, and oil falls for a third day. Tehran also pursues UN, nuclear-inspection and Russian channels against US economic pressure.
Daily Market Review
August 27 | Global Markets Review: Warm PCE lifts Treasury yields just 2 basis points; Nvidia's strong guidance shifts focus to Jackson Hole
On August 26, 2026, data, earnings and geopolitics each delivered only a partial market narrative. July headline PCE was warmer at +0.2% month on month versus +0.1% expected, but core matched expectations. Markets treated it as noise: 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields each rose 2 basis points.
Oil Markets
August 27 | Oil: Military Premium Gives Way to Diplomacy as Prices Fall for a Third Day but Freight and War Insurance Stay at Records
Oil fell for a third session on August 26, at a slower pace. October WTI settled at $82.23 a barrel, down $0.13 or about 0.16%; October Brent settled at $87.84, down $0.74 or about 0.84%.
Fed Watch
August 26 | Fed Watch: Inflation Expectations Rise as Tonight's PCE Takes Over the Hike Question
The federal funds target has stayed at 3.50%–3.75% since last December. With hawkish minutes, Collins says failure to cool inflation requires tightening and Barkin avoids predicting a hike. Consumers' inflation expectations have already reached 5.8…
Middle East
August 26 | Iran Conflict Report: Sanctions Take Effect as Tehran and Oman Propose a Temporary Hormuz Corridor
Over 24 hours, confrontation shifts toward diplomacy and economics. Washington implements more than 60 designations and five sector determinations, with new remittance, sports and shipping rules. China rejects US pressure. Tehran, on one hand…
Daily Market Review
August 26 | Global Financial Markets Review: Oil Falls 6% in Two Days and Treasury Yields Retreat—What Is the Market Anticipating?
On August 25, 2026, falling oil, weaker consumer expectations and new-home sales, and Fed officials' conditional rate views drew markets toward a cooling-growth narrative. Treasury yields fell across maturities, but stable inflation compensation and continued hike pricing showed that further tightening risk had not disappeared.
Oil Markets
August 26 | Oil: Peace Expectations Drive a Two-Day Fall of More Than 6% While Hormuz Disruption Remains Unchanged
WTI and Brent fell sharply for a second session on August 25 to near two-week lows. October WTI settled at $82.36, down $2.65 or about 3.1%; October Brent settled at $88.58, down $3.59 or about 3.9%.
Fed Watch
August 25 | Federal Reserve Focus: Silence Before Jackson Hole Leaves Market Pressure on Warsh's Friday Debut
Monday, August 24 is described as the last full US trading day before Jackson Hole. The Fed issues no speeches, new statements or minutes. With long yields at multiyear highs and hike pricing intact, questions accumulate ahead of new Chair Warsh's Friday-morning…
Middle East
August 25 | US–Iran Confrontation Shifts: Washington Defers Severe Economic D-Day Penalties as Rial Hits a Record Low
Over 24 hours, confrontation shifts from military strikes to economics and passage. Washington's economic D-Day arrives as threats and deadlines, rather than immediately effective severe penalties. Tehran claims a two-year plan as its currency hits a record low. Two tankers in the Red Sea and off Oman…
Daily Market Review
August 25 | Global Financial Markets Daily: Long Yields Retrace 4bp as Markets Bet on the Treasury Rather Than the Fed
On August 24, 2026, the US yield curve's previous parallel rise broke apart: the short end held while long yields reversed Friday's increase. Markets repriced whether Treasury cash could actually restrain the long end, assigning option value to TGA-funded buybacks without treating them as implemented.
Oil Markets
August 25 | Oil: Sanctions become a sell-the-fact event as a Red Sea tanker attack exposes risks to alternative routes
Washington's Economic Exile action against Iran appeared supply-tightening, but markets sold the fact: both benchmarks fell around 2.35% on August 24. The substantive new information came from the Red Sea, where an attack on a Saudi tanker exposed risks to an alternative export corridor.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part 14: Atlanta and the Sixth District—How Southward Migration Reshapes Growth and Inflation
GDPNow, wage tracking and business expectations separate Southern population growth into demand, supply, wages and prices.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part 2 | Why America feared central banking: Two failed experiments and the Panic of 1907
From the demise of two Banks of the United States to the private rescue of 1907, the political origins of the Fed's complex architecture.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Federal Reserve, Part Eight: Beyond Rate Decisions—Bank Supervision, Payments and the Limits of Crisis Assistance
Bank supervision, payments and settlement, fiscal agency and the lender-of-last-resort role together form the Federal Reserve beyond interest-rate headlines.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Federal Reserve, Part 9 | Boston's First District: Why High Housing Costs Constrain an Innovation Hub
High education and incomes coexist with housing-supply constraints and an aging population, creating the First District's distinctive policy signals.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Federal Reserve, Part 15 | Chicago's Seventh District: How a Car Connects Manufacturing and Finance
CFNAI, NFCI and the Midwest index put the automotive supply chain and financial transmission in the same analytical picture.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part Twelve | Cleveland and the Fourth District: Inflation Measures Forged in America's Industrial Heartland
Median CPI, trimmed means and nowcasts provide several measures of inflation, each with conditions under which its signals can be distorted.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part 19 | Dallas and the Eleventh District: Oil Shocks, Border Trade and Inflation's Two Sides
Oil-region income, US-Mexico supply chains and trimmed-mean PCE reveal the difference between shocks and underlying inflation.
Fed Watch
August 24 | Federal Reserve: Weekend Hawks Speak Again as Markets Await Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut
From August 21 through the August 24 cutoff, the Fed released no new policy-related data. The news was communication: Kashkari's Sunday television interview and attention to Jackson Hole. Pro-hike officials again argued more action would ultimately be needed, while investors awaited Warsh.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Federal Reserve, Part Six | How the Fed Reads Data: No Standard Answer to the Dual Mandate
Inflation and employment each require more than one thermometer, and the dot plot is no promise. Policy judgment is a tree of conditions.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part 3 | From 1913 to Today: A Century of Reinvention Through Crisis
From a discount network to a balance-sheet central bank: how crises repeatedly rewrote the Fed's powers, objectives and tools.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part Four | Who Really Controls the Fed? Independence, Special Stock and the Limits of Power
The Board, regional Reserve Banks and FOMC have different legal characteristics. Independence must be understood through authorization, appointments, funding and audit arrangements.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Federal Reserve, Part 1 | Three Layers, Divided Responsibilities and the Boundaries of Power
From the Board of Governors and FOMC to the 12 regional Reserve Banks: distinguish who decides, who votes and who implements.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part Five | Rate Decisions Are Collective: Inside FOMC Debate and Consensus Building
From pre-meeting information and regional voices to formal votes, this article separates the roles of the statement, minutes, dot plot and transcripts.
Middle East
August 24 | Iran Conflict: Economic D-Day Looms as Tehran Plays Its Strait Card
No new air or missile exchange occurred in the past 24 hours, but confrontation shifted further toward economic warfare. Treasury Secretary Bessent proclaimed Economic D-Day, with sanctions possible Monday. Iran's security chief Rezaei threatened to stop every drop of oil leaving the Persian Gulf, while internal disagreement over fighting or talks became public.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part Eighteen | Kansas City and the Tenth District: Agriculture and Energy Beyond Jackson Hole
Jackson Hole supplies a stage for ideas; agriculture, energy and rural credit form the Tenth District's year-round policy foundations.
Daily Market Review
August 24 | Global Markets Review: PMI Breaks the Short-End Stalemate as Investors Buy Growth, Sell Treasuries and Rush into Gold
At the August 21 close, two- and ten-year Treasury yields rose five basis points to 4.24% and 4.74%, yet S&P 500 gained 0.43% and gold about 2.4% as the dollar index slipped only 0.10%. The combination defies a simple rate-hike explanation.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part 17 | Ninth District—Minneapolis: The vast America beyond national averages
Distance, sparse settlement, agriculture, resources and Indigenous economies give a uniform policy rate very different transmission in the Ninth District.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Federal Reserve, Part 10 | The Second District—New York: The Trading Hub Where Policy Is Implemented
A permanent FOMC vote, SOMA and the global dollar network make New York the execution hub, rather than the superior of other Reserve Banks.
Oil Markets
August 24 Oil Report: Prompt Premiums Stay Elevated While the Forward Curve Prices Supply Replenishment
Threats of tougher sanctions and Hormuz shipping bottlenecks kept prompt oil and freight rates elevated. Deferred contracts were already pricing supply replenishment and weaker demand; bulls moved ahead before Monday's U.S. sanctions details.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part 11 | Philadelphia and the Third District: Seeing the Economy Before Repeated Data Revisions
SPF, ADS and manufacturing surveys measure expectations, conditions and business direction. Their value lies in combination rather than choosing one supposedly perfect indicator.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part Seven | After a Rate Cut: How Money Reaches the Real Economy Through Markets
From IORB and ON RRP to SOMA and long-term rates: why a policy cut is not a simultaneous switch for every financing cost.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part 13 | Fifth District—Richmond: Why Washington and the New South move out of sync
Government, ports, finance and manufacturing share one district. Its most useful information lies in structural divergence rather than averages.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part 20 | Twelfth District—San Francisco: Reconstructing the U.S. economy from the Pacific frontier
From AI productivity to Pacific trade, the final installment brings the 12 Reserve Banks together as a map of U.S. economic information.
Understanding the Fed
Understanding the Fed, Part Sixteen | St. Louis and the Eighth District: Data Principles and Macro Discipline Behind FRED
FRED, ALFRED and FRASER connect current data, historical vintages and institutional archives into a complete research chain.
Research
Why Did Gold Rebound in August While Nominal Treasury Yields Kept Rising?
Real rates drove most of this year's Treasury-yield increase. Gold's August rebound instead coincided with a weaker dollar, higher fiscal risk premiums and lower odds of a September rate hike.
AI Watch
Can Coding Support Trillion-Dollar Valuations for Large-Model Companies?
Coding-related revenue may already account for 30%–40% of the two U.S. leaders' business. Realizing their trillion-dollar valuations depends on digital content, office software and enterprise agents taking over the next phase of growth—and on specialist model companies retaining workflow profits amid competition from established technology platforms.
Middle East
August 23 | Iran in the Past 24 Hours: Selective Hormuz Passage and Monday's U.S. 'Economic D-Day'
New U.S. economic measures against Iran await Monday's announcement. Selective permissions, dark shipping and naval escorts coexist in Hormuz, where vessel traffic remains only one-fifth of its prewar level.
Fed Watch
August 22 | Federal Reserve: Services Stay Hot and Officials Stay Silent, Leaving Policy Questions for Jackson Hole
US flash PMIs on Friday, August 21 were strong, while Fed officials made no public remarks. Warsh has deliberately spoken less since becoming chair in May, leaving markets to await his Jackson Hole debut for clues to September.
Middle East
August 22 | Iran: Economic-War Rhetoric Intensifies; Hormuz Traffic Rebounds but Remains One-Fifth of Prewar Levels
No new airstrikes or missile exchanges were reported over the preceding 24 hours. Washington combined sanctions threats with domestic promises of lower fuel costs, while Beijing and Tehran responded. Hormuz's weekly traffic rose 27% but remained near 20% of prewar levels.
Daily Market Review
August 22 | Global Markets Review: PMI Drives Growth Repricing, Treasuries Sell Off, Stocks and Gold Rise
On August 21, 2026, US markets compress two opposing messages into one session: strong flash PMI suggests near-3% annualized third-quarter growth and lifts the two-year yield by 5 basis points, while Treasury's expanded long-bond buybacks deliver only short-lived yield relief…
Oil Markets
August 22 | Oil: Weekly Gains Near 6% as Benchmarks Diverge Ahead of Monday's Sanctions Details
Expiry of the June ceasefire memorandum, stalled talks and promised severe U.S. sanctions lifted oil for a second week, with Brent above $94 at a near-month high. Friday brought stronger Brent, stagnant WTI and narrower nearby spreads, shifting attention to Monday's implementation details.
Fed Watch
August 21 | Federal Reserve: Jobs and Activity Strengthen, but Why Do September Hike Odds Remain Near 30%?
The late-July FOMC held rates at 3.50%–3.75% with three dissenters favoring a 25-basis-point hike. August 19 minutes exposed that hawkish undertone. Strong initial-claims and Philadelphia Fed data add evidence for tightening, but September hike pricing remains only a little above 30%.
Middle East
August 21 | Iran: U.S. Intensifies Economic Pressure, Brent Nears $94 and Carrier Relief Arrives
With no new airstrikes or missile exchanges in 24 hours, confrontation shifted to sanctions. Trump threatened severe consequences for Iran's partners, and Vance called economic pressure Washington's most effective tool.
Daily Market Review
August 21 | Global Markets Review: Buyback Support Fades as Inflation Compensation Lifts Long-Term Treasury Yields and Weak Consumption Hits Risk Assets
On August 20, Treasuries surrendered much of the rally from expanded buybacks. Five-, ten- and thirty-year yields rose four basis points to 4.39%, 4.69% and 5.23%, with inflation compensation driving the long end. Strong manufacturing contrasted with weak Walmart sales, while higher oil and pending sanctions added pressure.
Oil Markets
August 21 | Oil: Benchmarks Rise for a Fifth Day; Record Cracks Show Diesel Is the Core Shortage
On August 20, tougher U.S. sanctions threats and the UAE's suspension of Iranian trade and finance lifted crude to its highest settlements since July 24. Deep backwardation and record diesel cracks show that downstream fuel, especially diesel, is the tightest supply-chain link.
Research
Match the borrowing currency to the bond: The real accounts behind dim sum and dollar debt
Once currency risk is removed from the comparison, dim sum bonds offer carry on a similar scale to dollar bonds with substantially lower volatility. Offshore renminbi government-bond futures launched August 3 completed the hedging chain, and segmented substitution is already under way.
Research
Can dim sum bonds replace dollar bonds while combining lower volatility and spread income under matched-currency funding?
Once foreign exchange is excluded, the real comparison is funded carry, duration risk and stressed liquidity. Dim sum bonds can replace some buy-and-hold positions, but do not yet replace the dollar credit curve.
Research
Beyond the Coupon Illusion: Can Dim Sum Bonds Build Hong Kong's Second Fixed-Income Curve?
The same issuer's coupon gap exceeds 200 basis points, yet spreads converge after same-currency funding costs. Hong Kong needs a second fixed-income curve.
Fed Watch
August 20 | Fed: July Minutes Reveal Broader Hawkish Support and a Real September Hike Possibility
The July 28–29 FOMC minutes, released August 19 Eastern time, exposed hawkish depth behind the 9–3 vote and made a September hike a live possibility. The target remains 3.50%–3.75%…
Research
Hong Kong relaunches 5-year offshore government-bond futures: Low volatility need not mean a small market
Hong Kong's 5-year Chinese government-bond futures have relaunched. Using the first 13 trading days, annual CFFEX data, CME Treasury futures and Chinese and US rate volatility, this article examines capacity, dim sum implications, currency transmission and the product roadmap.
Middle East
August 20 | Iran: Trump threatens economic strangulation; U.S. wounded exceed 750 as oil reaches a near-month high
Over the past 24 hours ceasefire talks showed no restart, while Washington announced its most destructive economic action, the UAE suspended Iran trade, and Israeli strikes in Syria sparked a dispute with Turkey.
Daily Market Review
August 20 | Global Financial Markets Daily: Treasury Expands Long-End Buybacks; 30-Year Yield Retreats 9 Basis Points from a 19-Year High
On August 19, Treasury announced that single-operation liquidity-buyback caps for 10-20-year and 20-30-year nominal bonds would rise from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9. The 30-year yield, at its highest since 2007 the day before, fell 9.1 basis points to 5.194%.
Oil Markets
August 20 | Oil: Near-Four-Week Settlement Highs Price a Temporary Shipping Disruption
Hormuz disruption enters its sixth month. August 19 WTI and Brent settlements were highest since July 24, yet deferred curves slope down and EIA crude builds persist: markets price continued disruption, rather than deterioration.
Fed Watch
August 19 | Federal Reserve: Voting Officials Stay Quiet as Data and Internal Research Reinforce the Hawks
No voting Fed official spoke publicly on August 18 Eastern time, but industrial output, a regional outlook and tariff research pointed to resilience and elevated inflation, leaving little case for easing. The funds target remained 3.50%–3.75%.
Middle East
August 19: U.S.–Iran Peace Talks Collapse as the 60-Day Memorandum Expires and Hormuz Confrontation Turns Protracted
The deadline arrived and talks vanished. The June U.S.–Iran memorandum, praised by Trump as the greatest Middle East peace deal ever, expired Monday after 60 days without a final agreement. Trump then said on Truth Social that no talks with Iran were ongoing or planned.
Daily Market Review
August 19 | Global Markets: 30-Year Treasury Retreats from a 19-Year High as Investors Buy Duration, Not Rate Cuts
On August 18, 2026, weakening activity volumes coexisted with sticky prices. The 30-year yield reached 5.337%, highest since 2007, before ending 5.285%; yields fell more at the far end even as 10-year breakeven inflation widened…
Oil Markets
August 19 Oil Focus: Talks Close, Hormuz Stalemate Deepens and Both Benchmarks Reach Nearly One-Month Settlement Highs
On Tuesday, August 18, the U.S.–Iran peace window closed and Iran adopted an all-out offensive posture. Oil added a Hormuz transit-risk premium: September WTI settled at $84.94 a barrel, up $0.44 or 0.52%.
Research
Reassessing Treasury Supply and Demand: Long-Bond Supply Has Not Surged, so Why Are Yields Still Hard to Lower?
Falling foreign holdings do not equal selling, and most incremental financing over the past year went into bills. Separating buyer structure, maturity supply and yield components reveals what is really driving elevated Treasury yields.
Fed Watch
August 18 | Federal Reserve: Policy News Pauses as Markets Await Major Signals
From August 17 U.S. Eastern time to about 08:33 Beijing time August 18, Board speech and press-release indexes and regional schedules showed no new entries: no policy speech or statement, rate decision or minutes.
Middle East
August 18 | US–Iran memorandum's 60-day deadline expires: Trump threatens Oman, Hormuz barely moves and Gaza talks remain deadlocked
The June US–Iran memorandum's 60-day window expired at midnight Monday without a final deal or announced extension. Over the past 24 hours, no new specifically identified airstrikes occurred on either side's home territory.
Daily Market Review
August 18 | Global Financial Markets Daily: Short Yields Accommodate a September Hold as New Long Bonds Enter the Secondary Market at a Discount
On August 17, newly auctioned 3-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries settled. The 2-year rose only 2 basis points to 4.19%, versus 4 basis points for the 10-year to 4.72% and 6 for the 30-year to 5.31%. Short rates continued to favor a September hold, while the long end repriced supply settlement, real yields and energy premiums.
Oil Markets
August 18 | Oil: Sixty-Day Memorandum Expires Without Renewal, Returning Nearby Strait-Risk Pricing to Three-Week Highs
The June 17 U.S.–Iran memorandum's 60-day deadline expired August 17 without either side seeking an extension. Araghchi had not decided to resume talks and U.S. Energy Secretary Wright described a long war. Nearby oil repriced prolonged Strait disruption to roughly three-week highs.
Research
Dollar Bond Weekly: Benign Inflation Reduces Front-End Hike Bets as Fiscal Supply and Duration Premiums Bear-Steepen the Long End
Short yields fell with mild inflation while fiscal supply and term premiums supported long yields. Credit spreads moved sideways at low levels, and primary issuance expanded sharply.
Fed Watch
August 17 | Federal Reserve: Weak Consumption Eases September Hike Fears as Goolsbee Requires Months of Confirmation
July retail sales unexpectedly fell on August 14 and preliminary August Michigan sentiment weakened. Goolsbee said reassuring summer prices still needed several months of cooling before confidence in a return to 2%.
Research
Lower Oil Cannot Open the Door to Cuts: A New Chair's Credibility, Midterm Elections and the Fed's Year-End Trade-Off
Lower oil has not established that core inflation is back at target. Warsh's credibility constraints, midterms and long rates raise the evidence threshold for a policy turn. The single most likely year-end outcome remains a 3.50%–3.75% hold.
Middle East
August 17 | Trump Links US–South Korea Drills to Iran War Costs; Hormuz Sees an Unusual Lull and Gaza Mediation Ends Empty-Handed
Trump ties US–South Korea exercise costs to the Iran war, announces sharp cuts to Ulchi Freedom Shield after Seoul declines involvement in Iran's denuclearization, and praises the Saudi–Turkish–Pakistani defense pact as an important first step.
Daily Market Review
August 17 | Global Markets Daily: Retail's First Decline Curbs Near-Term Tightening Risk, but Long Treasuries Demand Supply and Real-Rate Compensation
US July retail and food-service sales released August 14 fell 0.6% to $763.6 billion, the first drop since October and largest in 14 months, against a 0.1% rise expected. Michigan sentiment fell to 51.0. September hike odds dropped near 30%, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.68%.
Oil Markets
August 17 | Oil: Hormuz traffic nearly disappears—why are prices still locked around $82 and $88?
On August 14, another tanker attack and US talk of indefinite blockade raised nearby premiums. September WTI settled at $82.40/barrel, up $1.15 or 1.42% from $81.25 on August 13; October Brent settled at $88.52, up $1.45 or 1.67% from $87.07.
Middle East
August 16 | Strait Risk Deepens: From Sudden Ship Attacks to Eroding Confidence in Commercial Navigation
Hormuz traffic is only about 17% of prewar levels, ship incidents continue and U.S.-Iran contacts remain mediated messages. The key is whether passage, insurance and formal negotiations can improve together.
Daily Market Review
August 16 | Weak Demand Fails to Bring Lower Rates: US Stocks at Highs Face an Earnings Test
Retail falls but long yields rise, while oil and gold strengthen together. Weak data become a true tailwind for risk assets only if inflation compensation and long-term funding costs fall with them.
Oil Markets
August 16 | Oil: Diverging Settlements and Strait Attacks Show Constraints Moving From Wells to Shipping and Refineries
WTI's official settlement rose 1.42%, while Brent was unchanged on the frozen basis. Commercial stocks rose as strategic reserves fell; effective arrivals and refinery recovery remained central.
Research
Why U.S. Real Rates Keep Rising: Bond Repricing and the True Limits of Policy Rates
Real yields drove this year's Treasury selloff, but policy should not mechanically follow the long end. Inflation, short-term neutral rates and financial conditions together provide the relevant yardstick.
Fed Watch
August 14 Fed Watch: Flat PPI and Low Layoffs Restore a September Hold as the Base Case
July PPI was flat and initial claims rose to 209,000, putting September hold odds near 67.6%. Sticky core prices shifted expectations toward more observation rather than rate cuts.
Middle East
August 14 | Hormuz Risks Reach Merchant Shipping: ADNOC Vessels Attacked, Traffic Below Average and Regional Spillovers Persist
Hormuz traffic fell below recent averages as ADNOC reported two vessels attacked without injuries. U.S.–Iran rivalry over control continues, while Yemen fighting and marine pollution widen spillover risks.
Research
Repricing the long end of Treasuries: The shifting rate anchor behind a 5.216% auction record
Long yields have returned to levels unseen for more than two decades, driven mainly by a systematic repricing of real rates, fiscal supply and term risk rather than unanchored long-term inflation.
Daily Market Review
August 14 | Global Financial Markets Daily: Softer PPI Eases Renewed-Tightening Fears, but Long Rates and Supply Premiums Persist
Milder July PPI lifted intermediate Treasuries and sent US stocks to records. Lower oil eased near-term inflation concerns, but long-end term premiums and energy-supply risks remained.
Oil Markets
August 14 | Oil: A Huge Weekly Stock Build Hits Nearby Futures—Why Has Physical Tightness Persisted?
Brent and WTI settled down 2.15% and 2.4% on August 13 as US crude stocks rose 17.4 million barrels in a week. Demand downgrades pressured prices, while Hormuz and product bottlenecks still supported prompt physical prices.
Fed Watch
August 13 | Federal Reserve: Cooler inflation favors a September hold, but transmission remains uncertain
July CPI and PPI eased, reducing September hike urgency. Energy, shelter and tariff pass-through still require more evidence before a policy turn.
Middle East
August 13 | Iran Watch: No New Direct Strike on the Main Front as Secondary Risks Spread to Yemen and Strategic Waters
Verifiable developments over the previous day centered on Taiz fighting, a UN warning, Qeshm oil cleanup and an Omani tanker response. Causes and responsibility remained unresolved, with insufficient evidence of a fresh large-scale direct US–Iran exchange.
Daily Market Review
August 13 | Global Markets Review: Softer Inflation and AI Earnings Support Risk Appetite, but Long-Bond Supply and Energy Premiums Remain Constraints
Cooler July inflation and verified AI earnings supported selective U.S. equity gains. Front Treasury yields fell while 30-year yields stayed flat; supply and term premiums still constrain the long end, while oil awaits inventory and Gulf-shipping evidence.
Oil Markets
August 13 | Oil Focus: Huge Weekly Crude Build Fails to Sink Prices as Tight Products and Shipping Friction Offset Downward Pressure
A large U.S. weekly crude build pressured oil, but low gasoline and distillate stocks and thin global product and maritime buffers meant falling prices could not yet be treated as a trend reversal.
Fed Watch
August 12 | Federal Reserve: A Delayed Goolsbee Interview Revives Inflation Concerns as September Odds Stay Near Even
A Goolsbee interview recorded June 22 but released August 11 put high inflation ahead of labor-market weakness. It is historical context rather than a response to July payrolls. Rates remain at 3.50%–3.75%, with September hold and hike probabilities near an even split as markets await CPI.
Middle East
August 12 | Middle East: US Missiles Disable Gulf of Oman Freighter; Red Sea Double Strike Kills Six
Maritime force intensified over 24 hours. CENTCOM said Hellfire missiles disabled Panama-flagged Vela Nova under the Iran blockade; Houthis were accused of a double strike on a merchant vessel near Bab el-Mandeb…
Daily Market Review
August 12 | Global Markets Review: Treasuries Surrender Energy Premium as the Curve Awaits July CPI
On August 11, markets partly reversed Monday's roughly 5% oil shock. Treasury yields fell, led by the front end, and ten-year breakeven inflation narrowed about two basis points, removing some energy premium without opening an easing trade.
Oil Markets
August 12 | Oil: Weekly gains exceed 6% as EIA sharply raises third-quarter Brent forecast to $85
After Monday's roughly 5% jump, Tuesday settlement rose about 1.3%, taking weekly gains above 6%. Hormuz negotiating deadlock and commercial traffic far below prewar levels remain the main drivers of prompt premiums.
Research
China's May–July Price Weakness in Depth: Stable Annual Readings, Fading Monthly Momentum and the Test of a Nominal-Growth Feedback Loop
Three consecutive monthly CPI declines and a widening monthly PPI fall show that positive annual rates cannot conceal weaker current momentum. Policy must repair the nominal-growth feedback loop.
Fed Watch
August 11 | Federal Reserve: Dissenters Press Harder as Cleveland's Hammack Says Now Is the Time to Act
Weak employment had made a September hold the easier baseline. In an August 10 Yahoo Finance interview, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said policy was not meaningfully restrictive and now was the time to act.
Middle East
August 11 | Tehran Reshuffles Leadership as Washington Demands Reciprocal Compensation; Hormuz Reopening Hopes Fade
Over 24 hours, news centered on political and shipping deadlock rather than major US-Iran exchanges. Tehran hardened leadership, Washington raised reciprocal claims, and Hormuz traffic weakened. Yemen's Houthis and…
Daily Market Review
August 11 | Global Financial Markets Daily: Failed De-escalation Hopes Lift Oil 5% and Send Treasuries Lower as CPI Looms
On August 10, 2026, fading weekend hopes for navigation and talks restored near-term reflation risk. WTI and Brent settlements rose about 5%, and Treasury yields shifted almost parallel upward: 2-year +6bp, 10-year +7bp to 4.72%, with 10-year breakevens about 4bp wider.
Oil Markets
August 11 | Oil: A 5% Daily Jump Recovers Half the Weekly Loss as Hormuz Reopening Hopes Hit Disputed Terms
Monday's roughly 5% settlement rally reversed much of the optimistic Hormuz-reopening trade. Disagreement over terms and persistently weak commercial traffic restored nearby geopolitical and capacity premiums, outweighing U.S. inventories, rates and the dollar.
Fed Watch
August 10 Fed Report: July Employment Cools More Than Expected, Returning a September Hold to the Mainstream
The first hard labor report after July 29 showed an unexpected payroll decline and large prior revisions, shifting September pricing from a hike bias toward holding. Officials had not formally changed policy, and the next test was August 12 CPI.
Middle East
August 10 Iran War Tracker: Tehran Sets a High Bar for Hormuz Reopening as Washington Turns to Low-Key “Semi-Negotiations”
The past day's main development was the politicization of Hormuz talks rather than a new major exchange. Tehran demanded a package correcting U.S. conduct first; Araghchi said Oman route talks did not mean reopening and no U.S. negotiations were underway. Trump described low-key semi-negotiations and economic pressure.
Daily Market Review
August 10 | Global Markets Daily Review: Payroll Shock Reverses Tightening Bets as U.S. Stocks Post Their Strongest Week Since Mid-April
On August 7, 2026, a payroll shock shifted market pricing toward labor-market weakness. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 against a consensus gain of about 80,000, while May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. Treasury yields fell across the curve, led by the front end, producing a bull steepener.
Oil Markets
August 10 | Oil: Passage-Term Repricing Produces a Modest Bounce, but Stalled Shipping Still Resists the Forward Curve
After a steep weekly fall, oil rebounds modestly on Friday. Conditional Hormuz reopening has not restored flows: restrictive passage terms and scarce shipping support the front end, while OPEC+ paper supply and US crude builds weigh on deferred prices.
Research
Warsh's Federal Reserve Reform, Part Five: Midterm Politics and the Deeper Anchors of Interest Rates
Midterms do not directly set the federal funds rate, but they change the fiscal, oversight and expectations environment. With Warsh taking office, the question is whether the anchors move.
Research
Warsh Takes Over as Midterms Approach: Amid Political Conflict, What Ultimately Anchors Fed Rates?
A new chair's honeymoon collides with midterm elections and the Iran war. However strong the political pressure, federal funds rates must still be understood through growth and inflation expectations.
AI Watch
Warsh's Federal Reserve Reforms, Part 4: Can AI Productivity Rewrite Judgments of Potential Output and Employment?
Will AI raise potential output and change employment assessments? Warsh has institutionalized the question, but a shortcut to rate cuts still lacks the necessary evidence.
Fed Watch
August 8 | Federal Reserve Focus: July Jobs Weaken Unexpectedly, Restoring a September Hold as the Baseline
The first hard labor report after July 29 shows payrolls unexpectedly down 23,000 and May–June revised lower by 103,000. September hold pricing rises; Barkin calls the labor market neither loose nor tight. Employment has cooled, but the next test remains August 1…
Middle East
August 8 | Middle East Shift: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey Sign Mecca Defense Pact as Hormuz Framework Awaits Final Review
The past day's structural shift was Saudi Arabia bringing Pakistan and Turkey into collective defense as the Houthis attacked eastern Yemen and Saudi border areas. The Hormuz framework advanced toward high-level final review, while oil retained earlier gains amid doubts that reopening terms would satisfy Washington.
Daily Market Review
August 8 | Global Markets: Payroll Contraction Reverses Hike Expectations as Treasuries Bull-Steepen and Stocks and Gold Rally
August 7 pricing shifted to a labor shock: July payrolls fell 23,000 versus about 80,000 expected and May–June revisions removed 103,000. Treasury yields fell most at the front, producing a bull steepener. CME FedWatch…
Oil Markets
August 8 Oil Focus: A Limited Friday Bounce Leaves Weekly Losses Intact as Extreme Freight Diverges from Weak Futures
After a large weekly decline, Friday offered only a limited rebound. Nearby contracts priced Hormuz conditions and sparse traffic as freight premiums rose, while OPEC+ paper supply and U.S. crude builds weighed on deferred prices. Statements did not restore passage: markets priced eventual reopening without putting surplus into the prompt curve.
Fed Watch
August 7 | Federal Reserve Focus: Warsh Sets Conditions for a Rate Hike; September Still Depends on Inflation
The research window contained no new speech on the Fed's website, but one secondary report was enough to change the narrative. The Financial Times reported on August 6 that Chair Warsh was prepared to support a September hike if inflation ran hot over the coming weeks. Relatively moderate wage and cost data that day left hike odds only slightly above 50%. The real dividing line was the payrolls report due after the deadline and the following week's CPI.
Middle East
August 7 | Hormuz Rules Near Completion but Iran Rejects Automatic Reopening; Saudi Attack Alerts and US Ammunition Strains
The main battlefield is overshadowed by unresolved Hormuz arrangements and rising Gulf–Red Sea risks. Iran says an Oman framework is nearly final but will not automatically reopen the waterway, while denying direct US talks. Saudi officials warn of Iranian…
Daily Market Review
August 7 Global Markets Review: Restrictive Hormuz Draft Reverses Reopening Discounts as Oil Lifts Front-End Treasury Yields
On August 6, 2026, geopolitical inflation premiums regained control. Early Hormuz reopening optimism reversed as Iran reviewed a draft barring U.S. and Israeli ships and imposing fines up to about 20% of cargo value, prompting a sharp oil rebound.
Oil Markets
August 7 | Oil: Hormuz Reopening Deal Stalls, Sending Crude Sharply Higher as Traders Await Real Tanker Flows
An agreement in principle on Hormuz has yet to produce meaningful vessel traffic, while new questions over passage terms have emerged. Crude bought back its prompt logistics premium during the session. Farther along the curve, OPEC+ supply increases and a US inventory build still weigh on prices: backwardation persists, and the decisive evidence will come from ships, not statements.
Fed Watch
August 6 | A Flurry of Hawkish Fed Comments Leaves September Hike Expectations Unchanged: Kashkari Calls for Small Increases as Markets Await the Data
On August 5, with six weeks until September's policy meeting, several Fed hawks spoke on the same day. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari called for small rate increases starting now, while voting member Cook said she was ready to act without further disinflation. The day's ADP employment and ISM services releases offered a soft…
Middle East
August 6 | Hormuz transit framework emerges amid U.S.-Iran denials of talks; Red Sea attacks and interceptor shortages intensify risks
Iran and Oman move close to a Hormuz framework while Tehran denies U.S. talks and Trump threatens force if reopening fails. Red Sea attacks escalate as diplomacy and frontline risks diverge.
Daily Market Review
August 6 | Global Markets Daily: Oil Holds Steady Awaiting Final Agreement Review; Dow Record Masks Technology Divergence
On August 5, markets consolidated after repricing a possible Hormuz agreement. Iran and Oman's draft and route coordinates awaited final approval. Oil stabilized near $75 WTI and $79 Brent, while a Dow record concealed divergent technology earnings.
Oil Markets
August 6 Oil Report: Hormuz Reopening Talks Near a Decision as Crude Pauses After Losing a Tenth in Two Days
Talks over temporary Hormuz passage were displacing conventional supply-and-demand data as the oil market's central pricing variable.
Research
Warsh's Fed Reform, Part Three: An Experiment in Measuring Inflation and Rebuilding the Reaction Function
After reviewing the failures of 2021–2022, we examine Warsh's change of measuring stick: core PCE at 3.3% and trimmed mean PCE at 2.2% lie on opposite sides of the target. Measurement, frameworks and the threshold for rate cuts.
Fed Watch
August 5 | Federal Reserve: September hike odds ease to 57%; Philadelphia's Paulson takes a balanced stance
With six weeks until September's meeting, softer labor and order data and falling oil cut 25-basis-point hike odds from 64% to about 57%. Paulson's first post-July remarks favored keeping an open mind.
Middle East
August 5 | U.S. signals a Hormuz deal within days and markets rally; ship attack exposes risks as Iran insists on Oman-only talks
U.S. officials signaled a possible Hormuz reopening deal today or tomorrow, while Qatar said a draft was circulating. Diplomatic optimism contrasted with maritime risks and Tehran's refusal of direct U.S. talks.
Daily Market Review
August 5 | Global Markets Daily: Oil Falls Nearly 10% in Two Days as the S&P 500 and Dow Set Records
On August 4, 2026, global markets were driven by rising hopes of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC that morning that the U.S. and Iran had a chance of reaching an agreement today or tomorrow; Qatar said a draft transition plan was circulating. Oil plunged for a second day, with WTI settling at $74.81.
Oil Markets
August 5 | Oil: Hormuz reopening talk triggers a 5% plunge—which premium was removed?
Oil fell over 5% on August 4 to three-week lows after Treasury Secretary Bessent said a Hormuz agreement might arrive today or tomorrow. Yet backwardation, freight costs and war-risk insurance remained high, showing that the physical constraints persisted.
Research
Thirty-Year Treasuries Above 5.2%: Long-Term Capital Demands More as Dollar-Asset Pricing Resets
The 30-year Treasury yield touches about 5.28%, near highs last seen around 2007. Policy can hold while the long end tightens. Behind 5.2% lie policy expectations, energy inflation and term premiums.
Fed Watch
August 4 | Fed: Manufacturing beats expectations—why do September hike odds fall?
August 3 brought stronger-than-expected July ISM manufacturing, its highest since May 2022; credit easing for businesses but tightening for households; and Williams' reaffirmation of baseline disinflation. Despite generally hawkish information, market hike pricing moved counterintuitively.
Middle East
August 4 | US–Iran Diplomatic Clash: Trump Threatens a Last Chance Before Decapitation Strikes; Tehran Rejects Direct Talks
The past 24 hours center on competing accounts of canceled strikes and Monday talks. Trump offers a last chance and proposes Hormuz first, nuclear issues later. Tehran insists it is talking only to Oman about temporary passage. Oil initially falls on the pause…
Daily Market Review
August 4 Global Markets Daily Review: De-Escalation Hopes Send Oil Down 5% as the Dow Sets a Record Close
On August 3, markets read paused strikes and reopening rhetoric as lower escalation risk. Stocks and bonds rallied, WTI settled around $80.3, Treasury yields fell 3–5 basis points in mild bull flattening, and the Dow closed at a record 53,178.41.
Oil Markets
August 4 | Oil: Trump's canceled strikes trigger a 5% daily plunge while physical bottlenecks persist
On August 3, oil fell sharply after Trump canceled planned Iran strikes and called for immediate full Hormuz reopening. Markets priced easing conflict and recovering supply; nearby WTI settled around $80.34 a barrel.
Fed Watch
August 3 | Federal Reserve: ECI Shows Sticky Wages, Three Voters Issue Statements and September Hike Odds Hold Near 66%
After the July 28–29 FOMC held rates 9 to 3, the three regional presidents favoring hikes issued July 31 statements. ECI and other data offered little evidence of easing inflation, keeping September hike pricing near 66%.
Middle East
August 3: Trump Abruptly Announces Monday Afternoon U.S.–Iran Talks; Oil Opens More Than 5.5% Lower as Tehran Denies Seeking Peace
Over 24 hours the focus shifted from paused strikes to renewed talks. Trump announced Monday afternoon negotiations aboard Air Force One and said Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Iran had requested a halt to planned large-scale strikes. Tehran responded with denial and mockery.
Daily Market Review
August 3 Global Markets Daily Review: Thirty-Year Treasury Yields Reach 2007 Highs as Bear Steepening Awaits Payrolls
On July 31, Treasury selling lifted two- through 30-year yields 5–7 basis points, with the 30-year closing in its highest range since July 2007. The week moved from pre-meeting relief through a post-meeting twist to broad curve repricing.
Oil Markets
August 3 | Oil: Renewed peace talks trigger a near-5% plunge, while physical supply remains tight
Oil ended July 31 modestly higher, with Brent above $90, but both benchmarks lost over 5% for the week. Weekend news brought canceled US strikes and announced August 3 talks, alongside further OPEC+ supply plans.
Research
Warsh's Fed Reforms, Part I: Tightening by Withdrawing Words and Letting Markets Price for Themselves
Rates stay unchanged for two meetings, yet markets act as though the Fed has done much: statements shrink by 60%, guidance disappears and dissent is exposed. What has Warsh removed, what has he reinforced, and what are the odds of success?
Research
Warsh's Federal Reserve Reforms, Part 2: Quantitative Tightening, Interest Rates and the Balance-Sheet Path
QT has ended while inflation remains above target. Warsh supports a further reduction of about $1 trillion–$2 trillion over the medium term, chiefly through portfolio changes and gradual runoff. Near-term restraint rests on interest rates; balance-sheet reform is a structural project spanning 3–5 years, with an estimable upward effect on long-end premiums.
Fed Watch
August 2 | Federal Reserve: Dissenters Make Their Case as September Hike Expectations Rise to 66%
On July 31, the July FOMC's dissenting voices made themselves heard. Three regional Fed presidents who voted for a hike issued formal statements on the same day; St. Louis's Musalem sided with the advocates of action in an FT interview; and reports said Warsh was considering fewer annual meetings. Meanwhile, three economic releases remained elevated…
Middle East
August 2 | Trump halts planned strikes on Iran: A broad framework emerges as mediation and frontline fighting continue
Middle Eastern tensions reversed suddenly over 24 hours. Saturday night US Eastern time, Sunday morning August 2 in Beijing, Trump canceled planned strikes, saying negotiations advanced and a broad framework was agreed in principle. Though forces were ready, he accepted requests to delay action.
Daily Market Review
August 2 | Global Markets: Treasuries Sell Off Across the Curve as September Hike Odds Reach Two-Thirds
On July 31, 2026, Treasuries sold off for a third session after the Fed’s fifth consecutive hold. Yields from two to thirty years rose 5–7 basis points, with the thirty-year reaching 5.27%, its highest area since 2006–2007. Public comments from officials who dissented in favor of a hike helped lift September hike odds to about two-thirds.
Oil Markets
August 2 | Oil Focus: Conflicting Hormuz Headlines Drive a Rebound to Recent Highs
On July 31, 2026, conflicting reports of resumed transit and military interceptions sent oil lower then higher. WTI and Brent extended gains to recent highs, ending a strong July. With markets closed for the weekend, attention turned to today's OPEC+ meeting, while product shortages and shipping bottlenecks remained central.
Fed Watch
August 1 Fed Focus: July Hold Leaves Growing Uncertainty Over a September Hike
On July 31, the July FOMC's aftermath lifted the whole Treasury curve, taking the 30-year to 5.27%, its highest since 2007. Markets absorbed a hold accompanied by far greater committee division than expected.
Middle East
August 1 | US Plans Wider Weekend Strikes; Hamas Conditionally Agrees to Disarm as a Tanker Is Hit in Hormuz
The US prepares possible weekend strikes on Iran, including nuclear and energy options, as Trump warns of heavy attacks. Hamas conditionally agrees to disarm after nearly 10 months of negotiations, but Netanyahu remains silent and Israel's right wing objects.
Daily Market Review
August 1 | Global Markets Review: Fed Dissenters Strengthen Hike Expectations, Treasuries Sell Off and Korean Stocks Rebound 18%
On July 31, 2026, global assets diverged along four lines. Treasuries sold off across the curve, with four key maturities rising 5–7 basis points, as successive comments by the three FOMC dissenters further strengthened hike expectations. U.S. indexes rose, but internal divisions were sharp: Amazon gained 15%, with AWS revenue vindicating AI capital spending, while Apple fell.
Oil Markets
August 1 | Oil: Hormuz Traffic Nears a Standstill as Product Cracks Reach Historical Extremes
July 31 settlements: WTI September $84.67 a barrel, up $1.08 (+1.29%); Brent September $90.12, up $1.09 (+1.22%). Both benchmarks gained for a third session, with Brent back above $90.
Fed Watch
July 31 | Federal Reserve Focus: Rare Three-Way Dissent as Softer Data Fail to Hide Resilient Domestic Demand
On July 28–29 the Fed holds for a fifth time this year, but three votes for a hike add tension. Next-day GDP and June PCE show slower growth and cooler inflation, leaving markets between hawkish policy signals and dovish-looking data.
Middle East
July 31 Iran Update: U.S. Resumes Strikes, Saudi Arabia Moves from Mediation to Combat and Conflict Reaches Egypt and Kuwait
The U.S.–Iran conflict escalated on three fronts over 24 hours: renewed strikes inside Iran, Saudi participation and a 14-country maritime-defense coalition, and first suspected Iran-linked attacks on an Egyptian Mediterranean port and northern Kuwait.
Daily Market Review
July 31 | Global Markets Daily Review: Long Yields Stay Elevated After the FOMC, AI Earnings Diverge and Geopolitical Premiums Fluctuate at High Levels
On July 30, 2026, markets digested the FOMC along three parallel tracks: rates stayed elevated, Microsoft and Meta split equities over returns on AI investment, and geopolitical fears eased into high-level volatility. VIX fell almost a fifth, but long Treasury yields refused to retreat. Across assets…
Oil Markets
July 31 Oil Report: A Marginal Hormuz Traffic Recovery Prompts a Pullback, but Three Physical Supports Remain Firm
Oil corrected on July 30 after rapid gains. September WTI settled at $83.59, down $0.87 or 1.0%, and September Brent near $89.30, down $1.44 or 1.6%. Brent's intraday swing exceeded $4.
Fed Watch
July 30 | Federal Reserve: Hold draws three hawkish dissents; long-bond selloff tests policy credibility
The July 28–29 Fed meeting held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth time, but three voters sought a 25-basis-point hike. Warsh rejected traditional forward guidance in favor of watching the game rather than the referee.
Middle East
July 30 | War Escalates: US Strikes Iran as US and Saudi Forces Hit Iraqi Militias
Iran fires ballistic missiles at US Middle Eastern bases and the US responds with broad strikes on Iran and joint Saudi attacks on Iraqi Iran-linked forces. Hormuz traffic falls near 14 vessels daily, while Bab el-Mandeb declines under Houthi restrictions.
Daily Market Review
July 30 | Global Markets Review: The FOMC's Most Divided Vote in a Decade Jolts Markets as Treasuries Bear-Steepen and Oil Surges More Than 6%
On July 29, 2026, an apparently unchanged FOMC decision triggered global repricing. The Fed held rates by 9 votes to 3, but three regional Fed presidents favored a 25-basis-point increase, the most divided vote since 2016. Renewed escalation in the Middle East sent oil more than 6% higher and drove a sharp bear-steepening at the long end of the Treasury curve.
Oil Markets
July 30 | Oil Focus: A Nearly 8% Daily Rebound Recoups Losses as Disruption at Two Straits Revives the Supply Premium
On July 29, 2026, oil staged a dramatic reversal. A day earlier, markets had briefly welcomed hopes that the U.S. and Iran would pause fighting: WTI broke below $78 and Brent below $84. Just 24 hours later came reports of joint U.S.–Saudi strikes on Iran-aligned forces in Iraq and Iranian ballistic-missile retaliation against a U.S. base in Jordan.
Fed Watch
July 29 | On the Eve of the Fed Decision: A Hold Remains the Base Case as the Tail Risk of a Hike Rises to One-Third
The Federal Reserve will announce its July FOMC decision at 14:00 Eastern time on July 29, approximately 02:00 Beijing time on July 30, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 14:30. The federal funds target range has remained at 3.50%–3.75% since the June 16–17 meeting.
Middle East
July 29 | Iran Again Fires Missiles at US Forces in Jordan; US and Saudi Arabia Launch Their First Joint Cross-Border Strikes on Pro-Iran Militias in Iraq
Over the past 24 hours, successive military actions have overturned the narrative of a pause in escalation, with an immediate effect on oil prices and shipping costs.
Daily Market Review
July 29 | Global Financial Markets Review: Predecision Repricing, Persistent Geopolitical Premiums and a Shock to Memory Expectations
On July 28, 2026, markets priced a pause in U.S.-Iran exchanges: WTI settled down 4.1%, Brent 4.8%, Treasury yields fell and earnings lifted the Dow. Beneath cross-asset relief, portfolios rotated sharply as semiconductors fell more than 4% and memory stocks plunged. Renewed after-hours tensions rapidly restored much of oil's premium.
Oil Markets
July 29 | Oil: Three Falling Day Sessions Reversed Overnight as the Front Curve Holds the Hormuz Premium
At Tuesday July 28 settlement, oil continued pricing a pause in fighting and possible reopening. September WTI closed $79.26 a barrel, down about $3.35 (−4.1%) from Monday's $82.61; September Brent closed $84.09, down about $4.27 from $88.36.
Fed Watch
July 28 | Inflation and Payrolls Cool: Why Are Markets Still Betting on a Fed Rate Hike in the Fall?
Plunging oil prices and flat core inflation should have cooled the hawks, yet futures still price at least one hike by September. With Warsh declining to submit a dot and opposing forward guidance, this is the hardest FOMC meeting to read since he took office.
Middle East
July 28 | Day Four of the Strike Pause: Tehran Flatly Denies US Claims It Sought Talks as Fighting Spreads to Saudi Arabia
The US strike pause enters its fourth day. Trump attributes it to an Iranian request for talks for the first time, and Tehran publicly denies it. Fighting spills into Saudi Arabia as Riyadh intercepts drones from Iraq, while oil plunges more than 11% in a day.
Daily Market Review
July 28 | Oil Slumps Almost 10%: Why Has Macro Pricing Been Slow to Embrace Easing?
On the third day of the US–Iran pause, oil plunges almost 10% and ten-year inflation expectations fall five basis points, yet nominal Treasury yields ease only slightly. Markets turn from the Hormuz premium to this week's FOMC decision and megacap earnings.
Oil Markets
July 28 | Oil plunges nearly 10% in a day: Markets front-run the ceasefire while Hormuz tankers remain at anchor
Brent fell 8.7% and WTI 7.5%, erasing a week and a half of war premium in a day. Yet Hormuz tanker transits were down 90% year on year and freight remained extreme: prices had moved ahead of physical flows.