On November 3, 2026, international oil prices extended the previous trading day’s decline. Reuters’ settlement report for the day put Brent futures at $103.60 per barrel, down $1.17, and WTI futures at $96.09 per barrel, down $0.37—their lowest settlements since October 7 and October 14, respectively. Expectations for US–Iran and Russia–Ukraine talks weighed on risk premiums, but the recovery in physical supply was not keeping pace: crude trade was seeking alternative export routes, while global refinery runs had yet to return to year-earlier levels.

Prospects for US–Iran and Russia–Ukraine talks weigh on risk premiums, while near-term delivery risks persist

November 3 crude futures settlements: Brent at $103.60 per barrel and WTI at $96.09, with negotiation prospects and delivery risks both in play.
Original Chinese illustration · English guideCrude futures settlements on November 3, 2026, as reported by Reuters: Brent closed at $103.60 per barrel, down $1.17, while WTI closed at $96.09 per barrel, down $0.37. The storage tanks, pipeline and tanker illustrate the physical delivery chain. Prospects for negotiations weighed on risk premiums even as delivery constraints persisted. These daily settlement quotes are separate from the supplier continuous-contract history in the following chart; the two series are not joined.
WTI and Brent continuous-contract historical closing prices from September 1 to October 30, 2026, in US dollars per barrel, in separate panels.
Chart in EnglishHistorical crude prices, September–October 2026. The upper panel shows WTI and the lower panel Brent, both in US dollars per barrel; solid lines represent observed supplier continuous-contract closes. The period runs from September 1 to October 30, with October 1 marked between the endpoints. WTI moves from $90.22 to $104.12 per barrel, with a low of $88.28 on October 7 and a high of $105.83 on September 15. Brent moves from $94.65 to $112.33, with a high of $116.72 on October 23. The frozen history contains 43 observations for each crude. Source: Yahoo continuous-contract vendor closes, which are not fixed-contract exchange settlements. The November 3 Reuters settlements shown above are presented separately and are not appended to either curve.

A spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry said on November 3 that the United States and Iran remained committed to mediation and were reviewing proposals to bridge their differences. A senior Iranian official, however, told Reuters that the two sides were still far from an agreement to end the war. In analysis published the same day, ING argued that crude flows from the Persian Gulf were already relatively strong and that prices still incorporated a substantial risk premium. Material progress in the talks would put further downward pressure on prices.

New talks were also scheduled on Russia and Ukraine. The Kremlin confirmed that Russia, Ukraine and the United States would hold trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11. If an eventual agreement improves the conditions for Russian energy exports, supply expectations will adjust accordingly. Meanwhile, Russian refineries and Black Sea shipping continue to face attacks, leaving near-term delivery risks in place.

Oil prices are thus being pulled by two forces: negotiations improve expectations for future supply, while damaged facilities and high transport costs support the price of immediate delivery. Across nearby and deferred contracts, the former determines how long the market is willing to pay a premium for persistent shortages; the latter determines whether prompt cargoes still command an extra payment. A sustained improvement in exports, insurance and transport would make it easier for lower risk premiums to translate into lower actual procurement costs for refineries.

Global refinery runs rebound by 1.8 million b/d quarter on quarter, but remain about 5% below year-earlier levels

Global refinery crude inputs fell by 4.8 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 and recovered by 1.8 million in Q3, remaining about 5% below Q3 2025.
Original Chinese illustration · English guideGlobal refinery crude inputs in 2026: second-quarter inputs fell by 4.8 million barrels per day quarter on quarter, a decline of 6%; third-quarter inputs recovered by 1.8 million barrels per day. Despite that rebound, third-quarter inputs remained about 5% below the same period in 2025. The refinery model illustrates processing capacity and activity; the numerical cards describe changes in crude input volumes, rather than changes in installed capacity. Source: the EIA’s November 3 analysis citing Kpler data.
Quarter-on-quarter changes in global refinery crude inputs: Q2 and Q3 comparisons for 2025 and 2026, in units of 10,000 barrels per day.
Original Chinese illustration · English guideChanges in global refinery crude inputs relative to the preceding quarter. The horizontal categories in each panel are 2025 and 2026. All plotted values and vertical-axis labels are in units of 10,000 barrels per day. In the upper Q2 panel, +30 for 2025 means an increase of 0.3 million b/d, while −480 for 2026 means a decline of 4.8 million b/d. In the lower Q3 panel, +200 for 2025 means an increase of 2.0 million b/d, versus +180, or 1.8 million b/d, for 2026. The zero baseline separates increases from declines. Thus, the 2026 Q3 rebound followed a much larger Q2 contraction; these bars show quarterly changes, not absolute refinery input levels. Source: the EIA’s November 3 analysis citing Kpler data.

An analysis released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on November 3, citing Kpler data, said global refinery crude inputs fell by 4.8 million barrels per day (b/d), or 6%, quarter on quarter in the second quarter of 2026. Inputs recovered by 1.8 million b/d in the third quarter but remained about 5% below the same period in 2025. As a seasonal comparison, global inputs increased by 0.3 million b/d and 2.0 million b/d quarter on quarter in the second and third quarters of 2025, respectively. This year’s third-quarter recovery still left a substantial shortfall.

The improvement came mainly from new trade routes. The EIA noted that increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, greater use of alternative routes and more ship-to-ship transfers allowed more Middle Eastern crude to re-enter global markets. After falling by more than 1 million b/d in aggregate in the second quarter, refinery runs in India, South Korea and Japan rebounded by 0.8 million b/d in the third. US refinery runs rose by 0.5 million b/d in each of the two consecutive quarters, alongside an expansion in refined-product exports.

Russia moved in the opposite direction: refinery crude inputs fell by 0.6 million b/d in the second quarter and another 0.8 million b/d in the third. Russia is a major diesel exporter. The damage to refineries and its impact on diesel supply, combined with constraints on processing in Asia and the Middle East, also explain why pressure in refined-product markets may persist even after crude prices fall. End-user fuel supply will improve fully only when both crude deliveries and refinery processing recover.

Saudi Aramco begins pipeline expansion, as transport bottlenecks continue to constrain additional supply

Saudi pipeline transport capacity of up to 7 million barrels per day today, compared with proposed capacity of up to 10 million; additional export routes remain under engineering study.
Original Chinese illustration · English guideSaudi Arabia’s pipeline expansion: the existing East–West pipeline can currently carry up to 7 million barrels of crude per day. The planned expansion targets crude export capacity of up to 10 million barrels per day through repurposed domestic gas pipelines and investment in the existing network. The left-hand solid pipeline represents existing capacity; the orange dashed outlines on the right indicate planned additions. The lower map and rolled drawings emphasize that additional export routes are still under engineering study. The proposed 10 million b/d is future capacity, rather than current throughput or an already delivered supply increase.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on November 3 that work had begun on expanding the East–West crude pipeline and adding new networks. The pipeline can currently carry up to 7 million b/d of crude. Last month, Saudi Arabia proposed raising pipeline crude export capacity to as much as 10 million b/d by repurposing domestic natural gas pipelines and investing in the existing network. Additional export routes remain under engineering study.

The plan puts transport infrastructure at the center of the longer-term supply recovery. The crude available to refineries today, however, still depends on existing pipelines, Red Sea exports and passage through the strait. OPEC+’s November 1 decision to leave December production targets unchanged also makes transport bottlenecks an important factor in assessing additional supply.

Four sets of developments will be particularly important over the next few trading days.

  • If US–Iran mediation produces arrangements on navigation and sanctions, it would support a further decline in risk premiums. A renewed escalation would instead heighten near-term delivery risks.
  • Sustained improvements in actual throughput and exports through Saudi Arabia’s bypass pipelines are needed to turn expectations for expansion into additional supply.
  • The next weekly US inventory report needs to be read alongside refinery utilization and imports and exports. A Reuters poll forecast a 0.9 million-barrel increase in US crude inventories for the week ended October 30. An inventory build caused by lower refinery inputs would carry a different meaning from one driven by rising supply.
  • A recovery in Russian refineries and an improvement in diesel supply would help ease the impediments to passing lower crude prices through to end-user fuels.