On November 12, 2026, international oil prices reversed early losses in Asian trading to finish higher. Reports of attacks on Saudi energy facilities and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz again outweighed pressure from recovering supply and rising U.S. inventories. On Yahoo’s daily closing-price basis for continuous futures, Brent stood at $95.90 a barrel, up 3.39% from the previous trading day, while WTI was $88.81 a barrel, up 2.63%. The futures settlement prices reported by Reuters for the day were $95.82 and $88.74 a barrel, respectively, close to those closing prices.

Export-chain risks intensify: Saudi Arabia’s bypass pipeline and the Strait of Hormuz face attack threats

Export routes face threats while actual damage remains to be verified.
Original Chinese illustration · English guideExport routes are under threat, but actual damage remains to be verified. Oil prices initially fell by more than $1 a barrel in early Asian trading on November 12, 2026, before attention shifted to attacks claimed by the Houthis on Saudi energy facilities, including the East–West oil pipeline. The tanker represents shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters could not immediately verify Iran’s separate claim about attacks on tankers; the illustration does not establish confirmed physical damage.

Reuters reported that oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel at one point in early Asian trading. The market was then focused on the possibility that diplomatic progress in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine could ease supply risks, alongside increased output by oil-producing countries and a recovery in U.S. inventories. Subsequently, the Houthis claimed to have attacked a pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline, oil facilities at Yanbu and a Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two drones. Separately, Iran’s military said four tankers had been hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz after ignoring warnings; Reuters said it could not immediately verify the claim. Ukraine also said its drones struck Russia’s Ust-Luga port area, causing a fire and damaging some oil-storage facilities.

Most of these reports concerned routes carrying crude from producing regions to refineries. Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline is particularly significant because it enables exports through the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. In its outlook published on November 10, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said the pipeline’s restart and ship-to-ship transfers off Oman had supported a recovery in Middle Eastern exports in October. With both bypass infrastructure and the strait’s shipping routes now at risk, the market needs to reassess whether recovering supplies can be delivered smoothly. For oil prices, the location of the threat within the supply chain does more to explain the reaction than the number of attacks.

U.S. crude inventories rebuild by 4.657 million barrels, with physical evidence of a supply recovery still intact

U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventories all increased in the week ended November 6.
Original Chinese illustration · English guideAll three inventory categories rebuilt in the week ended November 6, 2026, according to the EIA release published November 12. U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by 4.657 million barrels, gasoline stocks by 1.799 million barrels and distillate stocks by 4.071 million barrels. The three labels show weekly changes, rather than total inventory levels.

The EIA’s weekly data released on November 12 cover the week ended November 6. U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 4.657 million barrels to 414.4 million barrels; gasoline inventories increased by 1.799 million barrels and distillate inventories by 4.071 million barrels. Crude stocks rebuilt markedly this week after falling steadily from 424.1 million barrels on October 2 to 409.8 million barrels on October 30.

U.S. commercial crude inventories end a run of declines and rebuild.
Chart in EnglishU.S. commercial crude inventories, weekly observations from October 2 to November 6, 2026. The original vertical axis is in units of 100 million barrels: stocks declined from 4.24134 on October 2 to 4.09760 on October 30, then rose to 4.14417 on November 6, displayed in the original as 4.144. These correspond to 424.134 million, 409.760 million and 414.417 million barrels, respectively. The six observed weekly values form a solid historical line; the latest increase was 4.657 million barrels. Source: frozen EIA inventory data.
Gasoline and distillate stocks both rebuild in the latest week.
Chart in EnglishU.S. commercial gasoline and distillate inventories, in million barrels, from October 2 through November 6, 2026. The two solid lines retain six weekly observations each on the same scale. Gasoline inventories rose from 208.958 million barrels on October 30 to 210.757 million on November 6, while distillate stocks rose from 99.259 million to 103.330 million barrels. The weekly increases were 1.799 million and 4.071 million barrels, respectively. Source: frozen EIA inventory data.

Reuters reported that refinery crude runs increased by 322,000 barrels a day during the week, refinery utilization rose by 0.7 percentage points and net crude imports increased by 544,000 barrels a day. The simultaneous increases in refinery runs and net imports indicate that higher crude inflows contributed to this week’s inventory build; the change in crude stocks alone is insufficient to conclude that end-user consumption fell abruptly. The simultaneous builds in gasoline and distillate stocks provide further evidence of improved refined-product supply.

On the production side, India’s ANI news agency, citing OPEC’s November monthly report, said crude output by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation rose by about 2.04 million barrels a day month on month in October to 41.23 million barrels a day, on a secondary-source basis. Saudi Arabia accounted for about 9.19 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia directly reported production of 10.56 million barrels a day and supply to the market of about 9.20 million barrels a day. These differences in reporting measures show why the recovery in wellhead production and the available supply reaching the market need to be tracked separately.

Saudi directly reported crude output and supply to the market in September and October 2026.
Chart in EnglishSaudi Arabia’s directly reported crude output and supply to the market, in million barrels a day, for September and October 2026. Output rose from 8.37 in September to 10.56 in October, while market supply rose from 7.99 to 9.20. Green denotes September and rust denotes October in the original zero-baseline comparison bars. Output and market supply are separate measures; these directly reported figures should also be distinguished from secondary-source production estimates. The English chart retains all four values as grouped comparison bars, with separate series for output and market supply. Source: frozen OPEC series.

Brent remains 2.46% below November 6; the risk premium hinges on actual deliveries

Near-term delivery-risk premiums coexist conditionally with a medium-term supply recovery.
Original Chinese illustration · English guideAs of November 12, 2026, Brent and WTI remained approximately 2.46% and 2.22% below their November 6 closes, respectively, while the dollar index was up 0.25% over the same period. The EIA projected global oil inventory builds averaging 3.5 million barrels a day in the first half of 2027. This is a forecast conditional on improving Middle Eastern export rerouting capacity and gradually declining shut-in production, rather than an observed inventory change. Near-term delivery-risk premiums and a medium-term supply recovery can therefore coexist under those conditions.

The November 12 increase is more consistent with a renewed premium for transport and delivery risks than with proof that the supply recovery has reversed. On the same Yahoo daily closing-price basis for continuous futures, Brent and WTI remained about 2.46% and 2.22% below November 6, respectively. The day’s rebound had yet to recoup the losses earlier in the week.

Oil prices rebound on November 12 but remain below the previous Friday’s closes.
Chart in EnglishYahoo continuous-futures daily closing prices for WTI and Brent, in U.S. dollars per barrel, from November 2 through November 12, 2026. Each solid historical line contains nine observed trading-day closes. WTI ends at $88.81 a barrel and Brent at $95.90. Their November 6 closes were approximately $90.83 and $98.32, respectively, leaving the latest prices 2.22% and 2.46% lower despite the rebound. The chart uses the frozen vendor closing-price series throughout, rather than Reuters-reported futures settlement prices.

Financial conditions did not provide uniform support for crude either. The dollar index rose 0.25% over the same period; a stronger dollar generally raises oil-purchasing costs for buyers using other currencies. The substantial rebound in oil prices despite this suggests that risks specific to crude supply played a greater role in this round of trading.

The longer-term supply-and-demand outlook still points toward recovery. In its November outlook, the EIA forecast that global oil inventories would shift to a build in the fourth quarter after an average draw of 1.2 million barrels a day in the third quarter. It projected inventory builds of 3.5 million barrels a day in the first half of 2027, conditional on continued improvements in the capacity to reroute Middle Eastern exports and a gradual decline in shut-in production. Near-term delivery concerns can coexist with a medium-term supply recovery; prolonged transport disruptions could delay the rebuilding of inventories.

Three developments warrant attention: first, operating and repair updates for Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline and Yanbu facilities, including whether there are quantifiable export losses; second, actual traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, insurance and freight rates, and whether attack claims translate into higher transport costs; and third, the EIA’s next crude and refined-product inventory release, to see whether builds continue following the rise in net imports. If transport recovers and inventories continue to rebuild, the risk premium will face pressure to fade. If damage to export routes persistently reduces deliverable volumes, a single weekly build in U.S. inventories will exert less downward pressure on oil prices.