On November 13, 2026, the IEA forecast in its latest monthly report that the global oil market would move into a supply surplus in the fourth quarter. Gulf exports are recovering faster than demand, easing the shortages caused by the war; continuing attacks on merchant vessels and energy facilities are also disrupting that recovery. Brent crude has consequently been trading around $96 a barrel as the market prices in both recovering supply and interruptions to transport.

On the Yahoo continuous-contract daily closing-price basis frozen for this edition, Brent ended November 13 at $96.08 a barrel, up $0.26, or 0.27%, from the previous trading day; WTI closed at $88.92, up $0.18, or 0.20%. Both have recovered from their lows for the week on November 10, but remain below their November 6 closes of $98.32 for Brent and $90.83 for WTI. The rebound has yet to recoup the earlier losses.

Oil prices rebound but remain below the previous Friday’s close
Chart in EnglishYahoo vendor daily closes for November 2–13, 2026, in US dollars per barrel. The red Brent line and green WTI line both fall sharply early in the period, recover, then reach their weekly lows on November 10 before rebounding. Their final November 13 values are $96.08 for Brent and $88.92 for WTI, still below their November 6 closes of $98.32 and $90.83 respectively. These are vendor continuous-contract daily closes, distinct from individual contract settlements.

Settlement prices for specific contract months were nearly flat. Bloomberg reported that January 2027 Brent settled at $95.84, up 2 cents, while December 2026 WTI settled at $88.56, down 0.2%. The vendor daily close and the contract settlement are observed at different times and represent different price records within the same market. Brent traded through a range of roughly $2 that day, without establishing a decisive breakout near the close.

October supply rose 2.3 million barrels a day; IEA raises fourth-quarter forecast by 3.3 million

Crude supply recovers faster than demand as Brent edges higher
Original Chinese illustration · English guideThe screenprint illustration pairs an oil pump and tanker with two numerical panels. Brent’s November 13 vendor daily close is $96.08 a barrel, up 0.27%. The IEA estimates that global oil supply increased by 2.3 million barrels a day month on month in October. The headline links the faster supply recovery with only tentative stabilization in Brent.

The IEA estimates that global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels a day in October to 105.4 million barrels a day, a cumulative increase of 5.3 million since August. Oil exports from Gulf countries excluding Oman climbed to 18.4 million barrels a day, still 26% below prewar levels; crude exports recovered to 15 million barrels a day, equivalent to 82% of their prewar level. The pace of the export recovery prompted the IEA to raise its fourth-quarter global supply forecast by 3.3 million barrels a day.

The increase has come mainly from the restoration of disrupted capacity. The IEA estimates that Saudi crude supply rose from 8.93 million barrels a day in September to 9.99 million in October, while Iraqi supply increased from 4.06 million to 4.60 million. On November 1, seven OPEC+ countries decided to maintain the production levels prescribed in September through December; their next meeting is scheduled for November 29. With quotas unchanged but actual supply rising, the immediate question for the market is whether oil already being produced can continue to be loaded onto ships and delivered to refineries.

Saudi and Iraqi supply recover between September and October
Original Chinese illustration · English guideIEA estimates of crude supply, in million barrels per day, for September and October 2026. The grouped bars use black for September and green for October, with a zero baseline: Saudi Arabia rises from 8.93 to 9.99, and Iraq from 4.06 to 4.60. Each value is labelled directly. The comparison shows restored supply in both producers; it is a two-month comparison, not a continuous trend.

Demand outlook remains weak: global consumption to fall by 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026

IEA projects lower oil demand in 2026 and a recovery in 2027
Original Chinese illustration · English guideThe IEA forecast panel shows global oil demand falling by 2.7 million barrels a day year on year in 2026, to 102.3 million barrels a day. The adjoining panel projects demand growth of 2 million barrels a day in 2027. Storage tanks and refinery structures illustrate the demand and processing backdrop; the figures are forecasts.

Demand is recovering more slowly than supply. The IEA expects global oil demand to fall by 2.7 million barrels a day year on year in 2026 to 102.3 million barrels a day. It forecasts growth of 2 million barrels a day in 2027, roughly 80% of it from petrochemical feedstocks such as liquefied petroleum gas, ethane and naphtha, with only modest growth in transport fuels. High oil prices, efficiency gains and electrification are jointly restraining road-fuel consumption. The rapid return of supply and slower recovery in demand underpin expectations of a fourth-quarter surplus.

October inventories rose 52 million barrels, building at sea while onshore stocks remained low

Inventory gains accumulate at sea while onshore stocks continue to fall
Original Chinese illustration · English guideGlobal observed oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels in October, while oil on water increased by 86 million barrels and onshore inventories continued to decline. The lower panels show European diesel prices down 11% from early October but still close to $180 a barrel. Tanker and storage imagery emphasizes the difference between oil in transit and stocks available onshore.

Global observed inventories increased by 52 million barrels in October, their first rise since June. Oil on water increased by 86 million barrels over the same period, while onshore stocks continued to decline and remained at their lowest levels since at least 2016. Higher exports initially appear as cargoes in transit and have yet to fully replenish inventories available to end users. Aggregate crude availability is improving, but the delivery system still has limited buffers.

October inventory replenishment is concentrated at sea
Original Chinese illustration · English guideMonth-on-month changes in October 2026, in million barrels: global total inventories +52; oil on water +86; onshore inventories −34. The onshore figure is the difference between the total and the oil-on-water change. Green horizontal bars extend right from zero for increases; the red onshore bar extends left for the decline. Direct labels preserve the signs and show that the overall build masks continued depletion on land.

The recovery in refined products is also lagging crude. The IEA notes that Gulf exports of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas remain at roughly half their prewar levels. European diesel prices have fallen 11% from early October to nearly $180 a barrel, but remain 77% above prewar levels; crude freight rates from the Middle East to Asia remain close to record highs. More crude supply can depress crude prices, while diesel shortages and expensive freight raise the final cost of refined products. Crude prices and the costs paid by refined-product end users may therefore diverge.

US inventory data also point to looser supply. EIA figures released on November 12 for the week ended November 6 showed commercial crude stocks rising by about 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million barrels; gasoline stocks increased by 1.8 million barrels and distillates by 4.1 million. Refinery crude runs also rose by 322,000 barrels a day. Net crude imports increased by 544,000 barrels a day, so the inventory build also reflected changes in imports and supply flows.

US crude, gasoline and distillate inventories all increase
Original Chinese illustration · English guideEIA inventory changes for the week ended November 6, in million barrels: commercial crude oil +4.7, gasoline +1.8, and distillates +4.1. Three green horizontal bars share a zero baseline, with direct value labels. The chart compares simultaneous weekly inventory builds across products; it does not depict a historical time series.

October saw 36 attacks on merchant vessels, keeping transport risks elevated

Shipping risks persist alongside a stronger dollar and higher yields
Original Chinese illustration · English guideVerisk Maplecroft recorded 36 attacks on merchant vessels in October. The ship illustration highlights persistent transport risk. The November 13 panels show the dollar index rising 0.23% and the official US 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.15%, up 5 basis points. The attack count is a monthly total; the financial-market readings refer to November 13.

An uncertain diplomatic outlook makes it difficult for the risk premium to disappear entirely. Bloomberg reported that Trump asked Vice President Vance to shift his focus to domestic affairs, weakening market expectations of a near-term agreement with Iran. Verisk Maplecroft recorded 36 attacks on merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman in October, the highest monthly total since the war began. Their direct effect on oil prices depends on whether they cause additional loading suspensions, diversions and an actual decline in exports.

A stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields also offered little clear support for oil. On the vendor daily closing-price basis, the dollar index rose 0.23% over the reporting period; the official US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.15%, up 5 basis points from the previous day. A stronger dollar increases purchasing costs for buyers using other currencies, while higher financing costs raise the burden of holding inventories. Nevertheless, physical supply and transport remained the main forces in the market that day.

Watch exports, onshore inventory builds and lower freight rates

Four developments will determine whether the supply recovery lasts
Original Chinese illustration · English guideThe four illustrated panels ask whether Gulf export growth can continue; whether cargoes at sea become onshore inventory builds; whether diesel spreads and Middle East-to-Asia freight rates fall together; and whether attacks on merchant vessels cause actual transport stoppages. The panels represent export continuity, delivery to storage, easing cost bottlenecks and realized disruption risk, respectively.

Four developments merit attention: whether Gulf export growth persists, confirming the supply recovery; whether cargoes at sea translate into onshore inventory builds, showing that the recovery is reaching consuming regions; whether diesel spreads and Middle East-to-Asia freight rates decline together, indicating that bottlenecks are easing; and whether attacks on merchant vessels cause actual transport stoppages, requiring a renewed increase in the risk premium. Current evidence points more strongly toward a gradual easing in the crude supply-demand balance. Supply chains have yet to return to normal, however, and prices will remain sensitive to actual transport losses.